Jayson Werth: Chase His Worth?

Despite playing his age-35 season, Jayson Werth posted another strong fantasy season. His .292/.394/.455 line equated to a 141 wRC+ and he posted the fifth highest qualified on-base percentage in the league. Unfortunately his days of 20 steals are probably gone, but Werth did chip in nine steals and was only caught once. Rather than his speed deteriorating, the most alarming issue may be that even though he appeared 147 games, Werth managed just 16 home runs. Even without his normal 20+ dingers Werth managed to finish in the top-20 of Zach Sanders’ 2014 outfield rankings.

Prior to 2014, Werth had hit 20 or more home runs in five out of six seasons — his injury shortened 2012 being the sole outlier. This season his 37 doubles was his highest single season total since 2010, so it is possible that some balls that normally cleared the fence may have hit it instead. Via Baseball Heatmaps, we can see his average fly ball distance for his past seasons:

	Distance	HR total	FB%	HR/FB%
2011	301.55	20	40.2%	12.3%
2012	269.76	5	38.9%	5.3%
2013	290.29	25	38%	18%
2014	285	16	40.1%	9.4%

The table does show a downward trend in his fly ball distance and given his age it shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. Of course Werth’s other old man skills — walks and strikeouts — are on the upswing. His 13.2% walk rate this year was his second highest of and his 18% strikeout rate was the best of any qualified season. Werth’s plate discipline has been improving as he ages in terms of swinging strike rate as well as overall swing rate.

	Swing%	SwStr%
2011	39.7%	6.9%
2012	40.9%	7%
2013	41.3%	7.1%
2014	37.3%	6.2%
Career Average	39.9%	8.2%

It’d be a stretch to say Werth’s power has fully waned, but he isn’t a spring chicken at this point. He can still drive the ball and hurt pitchers, but expect more of a 15-20 home run season rather than 20-25 going forward. Werth still holds plenty of value in both 5×5 leagues as well as OBP formats, thanks to his terrific walk rate. With 611 of his 629 plate appearances coming from the three hole, Werth is still a great RBI candidate as well. I wouldn’t count on another top-20 performance from him, but he still has plenty to offer.