Javier Baez and Risk in the Middle Infield
I already took a look at some of the risky upside picks in the outfield. Now I’ll tackle the middle infield.
The Javier Baez story if fairly familiar by now. The 22-year-old brings massive power along with huge strikeout totals. That power comes in the generally-weak middle infield and is coupled with solid speed for a potential smorgasbord of fantasy goodness.
Back to those strikeouts for a moment. These aren’t your regular, young dude swinging away strikeouts. These are man-sized strikeout portions. In less than a third of a season, Baez struck out more times than 56 hitters who qualified for the batting title. Baez swung at more pitches outside the zone than average, swung at fewer pitches in the zone than average, plus swung and missed at more than twice the average rate. All of that helped lead to his 41.5 strikeout rate. He often looked lost during his time in the majors, continuing a trend of starting slow he showed at Double-A and Triple-A.
I imagine the best possible season for Baez would be something like his 2013 when he tallied 98 runs, 37 home runs, 111 RBI, 20 steals with a batting average of .282 between two levels in the minor leagues, which would make him one of the top players in fantasy baseball. The worst possible season for Baez would be no major-league production. He can’t fix contact problems in the spring, on the heels of contact problems in the Winter League following contact problems in 2014, and doesn’t get a chance to open the season with the Cubs.
The strikeouts are a big worry, not a deal-breaker. Five hitters struck out more than 30 percent of the time and finished with a 115 wRC+ in the past five seasons. So it’s not common, but it’s possible. Steamer, ZiPS and the Fans all have Baez with a strikeout rate of no worse than 32.6, which should allow him to easily produce an above-average offensive season. And the bar for Baez is lower in the middle infield, where only three shortstops and six second baseman topped a 115 wRC+ last year.
This isn’t to diminish the batting average risk Baez poses. Adam Dunn was the most extreme player who fits into that above group when he put up a wRC+ of 115 while striking out 34.2% of the time in 2012. He hit .204 that season. The three projections have Baez hitting .233 or worse. Averaging the three projections gives Baez a line of 74 runs, 27 home runs, 75 RBI and 15 steals. Those numbers would even make him a starter in shallow leagues, which makes him an excellent bargain at the RotoGraphs group ranking of 17th among shortstops.
More risky options to consider at shortstop:
Danny Santana, RG group ranking: 15
The .405 BABIP is obviously regressing, it’s just a matter of how much. Santana’s projections look similar to Alcides Escobar (RG: 10) or even Jose Reyes (RG: 4), though his elevated strikeout rate means he’s more of a risk in batting average. The Fans are optimistic, projecting Santana for seven home runs and 29 steals, with a .283 average, compared to 9/25/.290 for Reyes and 3/26/.275 for Escobar. The BABIP and strikeout risks are worth taking for a guy who could be one of the best starters at the position.
Wilmer Flores, RG: 22
Flores may not be a star, but there’s no reason he can’t produce the same line as Jhonny Peralta (RG: 13). He has some pop and posted an ISO near .200 for three straight seasons in the minors. Flores made great contact last year and still finished with a batting average of .251, thanks largely to a .265 BABIP that held him back. With a BABIP approaching league average, his batting average should not be a problem and his power could definitely be an asset at the position.
Risky options to consider at second base:
Jedd Gyorko, 2B, RG: 14
The risk here is that his 2014 failures can’t be blamed totally on injuries. As sour as last year was, his plate discipline did improve almost universally. He also hit more ground balls and fewer fly balls, not a great way to keep hitting for power. I’m willing to buy one more time since he’s hit for power at every stop until his struggles last season. Steamer projects 19 home runs, tied for Anthony Rendon for best in the non-Javier Baez division of 2B.
Jonathan Schoop, 2B, RG: 20
Schoop has warts on his fantasy game. He can’t take a walk and he strikes out a lot. He’s worth a shot late because he’s one of only eight second basemen Steamer projects to hit 15 home runs and at 23 he could still improve his contact rate enough to not kill teams in batting average.
Arismendy Alcantara, 2B/OF, RG: 23
Alcantara struggled immensely with strikeouts last season, which was a bit surprise since he didn’t have a big problem with them in the minors. Steamer, Fans and ZiPS all project he will cut into that rate considerably in 2015. Playing time is the main concern, but there’s a useful fantasy player here if he can get on the field regularly. To get an idea of what his upside could look like, ZiPS projects 83 runs, 19 home runs, 79 RBI, 25 steals and a .249 average in 645 plate appearances. Second and third base are definitely not set in stone for the Cubs, so Alcantara is an interesting late pick.
Adam McFadden contributes to RotoGraphs when he's not working as a sports editor at MSN. His writing has appeared online for FOX Sports and Sports Illustrated.
All these interesting SS options makes me wonder if I should wait on the position. Why take a risk with a high pick Tulo, hanely, or Reyes when I could take a safer option and transfer the risk to a lower pick in the draft?
Because 110 games of Tulo (and whatever FA you pick up to cover the other 50 IF Tulo gets injured) adds up to a better season than a full year of just about anyone else. He’s that much better than the SS field. But if somehow Tulo plays 140+ games? You have a clear and sizable advantage at one position over everyone else. Plus, you should be able to get Tulo (ADP 18) in the late 2nd or early 3rd round. Lots of folks are worried about that injury risk.
Exactly right! I see no way to come up with any type of projection for those three SS’s. Why risk a high pick or a bunch of auction dollars? After those top 3 the differences in the balance of the field are not that great
Tulo has as much of a shot to play 140 games as he does 80. There is risk that all the injuries catch up to him and it affects his performance like Cargo last year.
I think taking Tulo 18th is worth is the risk for the aforementioned reasons, but I am thinking the superior play would be to take a safer option at another position and take a risk with a Baez, Santana, Escobar, or Bogaerts.
Patrick,
I think that approach can work although it depends on the size of your league and the quickness of your league mates to the waiver wire.
But certainly there are waiver wire pick ups at every position that far exceed the predictions. If you don’t like Tulo, then don’t draft him. Otherwise you’ll be handcuffed to him in a bad marriage…
Tulowitzki is a risk worth taking, but you need to back him up with reliable options. I am sticking with Tulo at SS this year in OttoNeu ($41), but I overspent on backups: Hanley Ramirez as my MI ($39), Boegarts ($20), Wilmer Flores ($3), Marcus Semien ($6), and Jungho Kang ($5). I know that is overdoing it at short, but I get stung by Tulowitzki injuries every single year.
I take the cheap pitching approach, and I use my savings on depth at SS.
I appreciate the strategy of hoping to get a healthy Tulo but mitigating with a good back up–but listen to yourself:
“Tulowitzki is a risk worth taking….but I get stung by Tulowitzki injuries every single year.”
But getting stung with a Tulo injury sounds like this”
“Tulo was having the best-ever offensive year by a SS but he missed the last 40 games and all I got was the best offensive SS this year.
What about Jung-ho Kang as a MI risk? He probably has as much upside to start with as anyone on this list. Plus he more than likely will end up qualifying at 3B and 2B as well.