Jake Bauers and Jesse Winker Should Hit For More Power

Jesse Winker and Jake Bauers haven’t set the fantasy world on fire since arriving in the big leagues. Winker, who debuted in 2017, and Bauers, who debuted this season, have been solid contributors to their real life baseball teams, but their inability to hit for power has limited their fantasy value.

Winker, has never hit more than 16 home runs (2013 in A-ball) and Bauers never more than 14 (2016 in AA) in a full season. They have rarely posted minor league slugging percentages above .500. While Winker appeared to turn a power corner after his call up in 2017 – when he hit 7 home runs and slugged .529 in 137 plate appearances, he appears to have reverted to previous level of production this season, hitting 7 home runs and slugging .431 through 334 PAs before heading to the disabled list with what appears to be season ending shoulder injury.

But Winker and Bauers do a lot of things of things well at the plate.

Winker and Bauers are walking more and striking out less than the Major League average. They’re also hitting the ball hard, making little soft contact and hitting the ball in the air enough. All these numbers are in line with their batted ball and plate discipline production from the minor leagues.

With all of these positive traits, they’ve still failed to make an impact in standard fantasy leagues. Winker has hit for average (.295 over two abbreviated seasons) and Bauers for some power (5 HR, .485 SLG in 160 PAs) however both are fringy owns. Winker is currently owned in 38 percent of ESPN leagues and 66 percent of CBS leagues. Bauers is at 25 and 56 respectively. Likely due to the increased percentage of points leagues in the CBS game.

But these are the offensive profiles of hitters who should be good players. And ones that should be fantasy relevant regardless of format.

Since 2008 (min 130 games), there have been 53 seasons in which a batter has walked over 14 percent of the time, struck out less than 22 percent of the time and posted a soft contact rate of less than 20 percent. Of those 53 seasons, only 11 players that hit fewer than 20 home runs. The players to post this profile most frequently were: 

Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Trout, Lance Berkman and Jose Bautista all achieved the feat twice. While some of the one hit wonders that appear on the list are Kosuke Fukudome and Nick Johnson’s 2009, and Jason Heyward’s 2010. Also worth noting – the five players on the list above saw power increases in the major leagues. Joey Votto and Carlos Santana never hit more than 22 home runs in a full minor league season. Albert Pujols reached 19 (in his one full season) and Ben Zobrist never hit more than 10. Fielder, who did enjoy several strong power seasons in the minors, never reached 30 homers – something he did six times in the majors.

While the hard contact number may be slightly problematic, as it appears hard contact is up throughout the league this season, Bauers and Winker are striking the ball with authority and at an above average rate according to Statcast data. Bauer’s average launch angle is 12.5 degrees, while Winker’s is 12.8. Their average exit velocities are 88.4 and 90.5 miles per hour – both above the MLB averages.

This obviously isn’t to say that Winker or Bauers is the next Joey Votto or Albert Pujols. Bauers is only 160 plate appearances into his major league career and has increased his strikeout rate slightly (24.0%) since the article was initially published.  Winker is 471 PAs into his and is likely lost for the remainder of the 2018 season. But their ability to control the strike zone paired with their ability hit the ball hard (and in the air frequently enough) bodes very well for the young players moving forward. There are power gains to be made here. And that’s before you account for the extra pop that comes from hitting a major league baseball instead of a minor league one.

These are hitters that should be hitting at an over twenty home run pace. Paired with Winker’s ability to hit for average and Bauers’ ability steal bases, they should be two valuable fantasy players – even in traditional roto leagues. With Winker’s injury and Bauers’ relative obscurity, these are two hitters that may be worth investing in before Winker gets healthy and Bauers starts to show the power gains he is capable of.