Is Vlad on the Decline?

Is this the beginning of the end for Vladimir Guerrero?

In 2008, he hit a mere .303, with 27 homers and only 91 RBI. Vlad’s .303 average was the third-lowest of his career, and his lowest since 2001. His 27 homers matched last year’s total, and was also the third-lowest of his career. His 91 RBI was the lowest of his career in any season in which he had at least 400 at bats.

Guerrero is not old, but he’s no spring chicken anymore (where does that expression come from?), either, as he will be 33 years old next year. Most sluggers tend to begin their decline around ages 32 or so, and Vlad seems to be no exception. Is Vlad in decline?

Well, yes and no. He’s certainly no longer the same force that he was in his prime – particularly back in 2000-2004. However, he’s no slouch either.

Vlad’s relatively low batting average can be attributed squarely to a fall in his BABIP and a rise in his strikeout rate: Vlad’s BABIP was .314, the lowest since 2005 and the third-lowest of his career, while his strikeout rate was over 14%, after having been 12% or under in every other year with the Angels.

So is this decline, or statistical fluctuation? It seems to be a bit of both. Vlad’s power has been conspicuously down for three years now – he posted ISOs of .248 or higher every year in his career until 2006; since 2006, his ISO has been .222, .223, and .218. So while Vlad’s power is indeed down, it’s not more down than it has been over the last three years.

Vlad’s hack-tastic ways seem to have gotten more pronounced in the last two years: his O-Swing percentage is over 45% for the past two years, whereas it was 40% and 32% in 2006 and 2005, respectively. His strikeout percentage was below his career average in 2007, but above it in 2008. I don’t know if there is much to read into this, besides perhaps the idea that Guerrero getting fewer pitches to hit because of an increasingly-weak lineup around him. His contact rate is down in the last two years as well, albeit marginally (from 83% to 80-81%). His line-drive percentage was also lower in 2007 and 2008 than it was from 2003-2006, although again, the difference was only a few percent.

I don’t often like to talk about RBI, as I believe they are almost entirely out of a player’s control, and therefore can be inferred by a player’s context (how good a hitter he is + his spot in the lineup and his teammates), but I will make note of Guerrero’s RBI total. Namely, in 2008 he drove in less than 100 runs for the first time during a full season in his career. Most of this is because his teammates weren’t particularly adept at getting on base; furthermore, his batting average and slugging percentage were both down. But also, Guerrero’s 2007 RBI total was artificially inflated by an incredibly-clutch performance that year: Guerrero’s clutch rating was a ridiculously-high 2.53 – the next highest rating in 07 was 1.86, from Adrian Gonzalez. In other words, Guerrero’s 125 RBI in 2007 was an abnormally-high total, inflated by an unusually-clutch performance.

So what can you expect in 2009? Well, Guerrero is unlikely to improve, but his batting average could rise if his strikeouts come down – which is a distinct possibility, given the fluctuation of his career strikeout rate (his high total in 2008 doesn’t necessarily seem to be a sign of his decline). His power is clearly no longer at the level it was in his prime, and may indeed come down even further, especially if back issues continue to plague him as they have in the past. While “lineup protection” is a myth, Guerrero’s RBI and runs scored totals could change dramatically depending on whether or not the Angels re-sign Teixeira, who would either be on base often for Vlad to drive in, or drive Vlad in often himself.

From 2006-2008, Vlad hit .319 with one homer every 20 at bats. It seems reasonable that this is approximately what to expect from Vlad in 2009, with the caveat that his power may be down a tick. If Vlad manages to get 550 plate appearances (he’ll likely miss some games due to injury), that would lead to 27-28 homers. I’d say that a .310-25-90 line seems reasonable – with the caveat that with every passing year, Vlad is an increasing injury risk.

The days of Vlad hitting 35 homers are gone, and it’s not too likely that he’ll hit .330 anymore. But he still remains an excellent fantasy outfielder.