Is Johnny Cueto Getting Better?

On the surface, Cincinnati Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto is busting out in 2010. The 24-year-old, signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2004 for a modest $3,500, dominated minor leagues hitters to the tune of 9.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a low-three’s FIP. Cueto rated as a top prospect on the basis of his sharp fastball/slider combo, and his major league ERA has fallen three seasons in a row — 4.81 in 2008, 4.41 in 2009 and a sparkling 3.42 this year. The sterling track record on the farm, the admiration he earned from scouts, the linear improvement in his MLB ERA — all of these signs point to a star emerging in Cincy.

I’m not sold, though. Take a look at some of Cueto key peripheral stats over the 2008-2010 seasons. I highlighted the most notable changes in, appropriately enough, red:

Cueto’s walk rate has fallen over the years, but his strikeout rate has declined considerably as well. He handed out a free pass to batters in 8.8% of their plate appearances in 2008, 8.2% in 2009 and 7.8% in 2010 (8.8% MLB average, according to Baseball-Reference). He’s doing a particularly good job of locating his 93 MPH fastball — According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Cueto’s throwing the pitch for a strike 64.9% of the time this year (62-64% MLB average).

So, his control has gone from average to above-average. However, his SO/PA numbers have dropped a good deal — 20.6% in ’08, 17.8% in ’09 and 17% in ’10 (17.8% MLB average). Cueto has gotten in fewer 0-and-2 counts (24% in ’08, 19% in ’09 and 17% this year; the MLB average is 22%), and he’s struggling to put away batters when he gets into two-strike counts:

sOPS+ is a stat that compares a pitcher’s performance in a given split to that of the league average. One-hundred is average, while anything above 100 means that the pitcher is worse than most in that area. As you can see, Cueto has been between 23 and 37 percent worse than the average NL pitcher when he gets in two-strike counts.

In those two-strike situations, Cueto goes to his mid-80’s slider often:

Baseball America once dubbed that slider the best in the Reds’ system, but hitters haven’t been as impressed. Cueto’s breaking ball has been whiffed at just 10.4% of the time overall in 2010 (13.6% MLB average). He’s throwing the pitch for a strike 56% (63.4% MLB average). Cueto’s best whiff pitch, relative to the league average, is his fastball — 8.8% (the MLB average is 5-6%).

As Cueto’s expected FIP (xFIP) shows, the pared-down walk rate and lower punch out rate have essentially canceled each other out. His xFIP this season is over a run higher than his actual ERA. The main reasons that he’s got a pristine ERA and an ace-like win-loss record (8-2)? A very high rate of stranding base runners and a plummeting home run per fly ball rate. Chances are, Cueto won’t escape danger quite so adeptly in the second half of the season. He’s not pitching any better with men on base…

…and his HR/FB percentage is well below the typical 11% range for pitchers (Cueto’s career HR/FB% is 11.2). Cueto’s home, Great American Ballpark, actually increased homers per fly ball hit by 14 percent compared to a neutral venue over the period of 2006-2009. If Cueto had surrendered homers per fly ball hit at an average rate on the road (11 percent) and 12.5 percent at home (1.14 times the league average), he would have given up 16 home runs so far (1.3 HR/9) instead of his actual total of nine (0.73 HR/9).

Currently, Cueto throws his fastball for strikes and gets a solid number of whiffs with the pitch. However, his breaking ball lags behind, both in terms control and getting hitters to come up empty. It’s worth noting that he has gone to his changeup more often this season. It has been average in terms of strikes gotten (60.8%, 60.7% MLB average) but below-average in getting whiffs (11%, 12.6% MLB average). Right now, he doesn’t have a second pitch that can put away batters.

The purpose of this post is not to sharply criticize Johnny Cueto, or to suggest that he won’t reach ace status one day. The purpose is to point out that he’s not there yet. Fantasy players run the risk of falling prey to confirmation bias with a player like Cueto — he was supposed to be a star, and a quick glance at his numbers makes it seem as though he has reached that level. But, upon further inspection, Cueto’s still got work to do.