Is John Means Back in Business?

It was in 2021 that John Means threw a no-hitter, striking out 12 batters along the way, matching his career-high single-game strikeout total. Were it not for a runner making it to first base on a dropped third strike, Means would have been the only Orioles pitcher in history to have thrown a perfect game. But, that was all back in 2021 and besides only eight innings pitched in 2022, John Means is back on the mound for the first time since April of that year. Is Means valuable this season, next season, and beyond? Let’s take a look at where he was and where he is currently in an attempt to answer that question.

Means put in his first full season of work (155 IP) back in 2019 and ended the season with a 3.60 ERA. Then, in 146.2 IP in 2021, he basically matched his 2019 performance:

While his 2021 season was filled with ups and downs, Means put together a solid end-of-season line that resulted in $6 worth of value according to our Auction Calculator. There were likely many fantasy managers who were excited to get sneaky value out of a soft thrower like Means but were disappointed when he went down with a UCL tear in his left elbow after only eight innings pitched in 2022. Now, there are likely three kinds of fantasy managers thinking about John Means.

First, there are those who have been holding Means as a keeper on the IL, waiting for his return, and are now wondering if it was worth it. Second, managers trying to win their leagues, or at least get out of the basement in my case, are searching for starters to fill up their innings limits. Is Means a candidate to stream? Lastly, there are those in keeper leagues who picked up Means for, hopefully, $1, and are trying to determine whether he is keeper material. In this article, I’ll analyze John Means from all three standpoints. Let’s get to business!

I kept John Means through his injury and now I want performance!

With $9.30 of roto-value in 2019 and $6.00 worth of roto-value in 2021, you must be thinking he could return positive value once again. What made Means a valuable pitcher from a fantasy perspective in those years? Well, his ratios, particularly his WHIP in both years were outstanding. Among all starters with at least 140 IP, Means ranked eighth with his 2021 1.03 WHIP. His 3.62 ERA ranked just inside the top 30 and one has to wonder if his high 1.84 HR/9 would have been a little less so had he been throwing in Camden Yards 2.0. Here is a look at Means’ 2021 home runs allowed, but in today’s park:

There are three, maybe four, home runs that would have banged off the top of the wall and stayed in the park. Even still, his 2021 home run issue, which, in the form of HR/9, ranked fourth from worst (62nd) among starters with at least 140 IP (65 total). The large majority of his home runs came from changeups, his signature pitch, and fastballs left in the zone:

Means’ fastball has stayed at a consistent 92 to 93 MPH average throughout his career, and leaving 92 MPH in the zone has never been a great strategy. We should expect to see his 2023 velocity bump up a tick or two by the end of the season, but it is interesting to see that his changeup is slower and showing a larger gap between it and his fastball:

The pitch has always held a negative vertical break vs. the average according to Statcast’s pitch movement and this year the pitch looks very similar in that measurement to 2022’s version. It’s a flatter changeup with less drop, but it’s significantly different from the average. That means it’s not a “fall off the table” kind of changeup like that of Logan Webb, but it is effective in that it doesn’t look like everyone else’s:

 

The key for John Means is keeping his changeup down. When it crept up in the zone, especially against right-handed batters, it got hit. But, when he kept it low in 2021 it was an effective pitch.

How has he done in his first two games back in this area? According to PitcherLists’ loLoc% (pronounced “low-lock”) measurement which records pitches located “low of the batter”, Means is only locating his changeup low 44.8% of the time. In 2021, when he had that stellar WHIP, his loLoc% was a career-high 51.4%. He’ll need to work on getting the pitch down in the zone if he is to use it as effectively as he did in 2021.

Means is showing signs of getting the pitch back to form, but so far in 2023, it has gotten hit even when placed well:

Sure, it’s easy to over-analyze two starts, but the three changeups below and out of the zone getting hit look different on film:

Willson Contreras, single

Tyler O’Neill, single

Martin Maldonado, single

Each changeup looked somewhat easy for these hitters to time up. Even still, soft-contact singles are not going to kill Means’ ERA and if he can continue to limit hard contact with his signature pitch, he’ll remain a good ratio pitcher. Let’s wrap this section up with a general comparison of Means at the start of 2022 and Means at the end of 2023:

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Means’ changeup and slider are performing well, but his curveball and fastball need some work. In addition, he’s not where he once was when it comes to getting swings and misses, but his overall CSW% is promising. Fantasy managers should pay close attention to his O-Contact% which is likely a victim of a very small sample size. If that goes down, other areas of Means’ game should start to benefit.

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You have some starts/innings to accumulate before the season’s end and are considering streaming him.

According to RosterResource, Means will likely make two more starts, once against the Guardians and once against the Red Sox. Let’s break each down:

Orioles @ Guardians

Team stats versus left-handed pitching at home: AVG: .227 (ranked 28th) SLG: .367 (ranked 30th) wOBA: .286 (ranked 30th)

Run-Value (Pitch Info) versus changeups all games: -12.2, ranked 26th

The Guardians at home have all the indicators of being a good team for Means to face. Cleveland has been bad against the changeup but it has been just as bad (-41.1) against the fastball. I like Means in this matchup especially if you have some wiggle room in your strikeout category but may need to decrease your ratios ever so slightly. The potential for a win is there with an O’s team fighting to win the division but Means will have to go deeper in the game to qualify for the win. The O’s bullpen is taxed, so hopefully they’ll expect Means to start adding on the innings.

Red Sox @ Orioles

Team stats versus left-handed pitching while away: AVG: .223 (ranked 28th) SLG: .362 (ranked 27th) wOBA: .297 (ranked 24th)

Run-Value (Pitch Info) versus changeups all games: 21.8, ranked 2nd

While the Red Sox have been good against left-handed pitching at home, Oriole Park doesn’t have a big, huge wall that right-handed batters can bang doubles off of. Unfortunately for Means, the Red Sox have crushed changeups this season and Means has been throwing his changeup over 36% of the time. However, if Means shows gains in swinging strikes with his changeup against the Guardians, there could be some indication that he has started dialing in the pitch.

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Can I keep him? You picked up Means while no one was looking and are now wondering about his long-term value.

Means’ short-term value from two more starts this season may depend very highly on what he does against the Guardians. If his changeup moves up the CSW% board with more swings and misses, his curveball stops getting smoked and he has some more command of the fastball, he could be a good starter for fantasy teams pining for a win.

In the long term, health is always an issue. The biggest indicators of future health issues are previous health issues, and Means’ Tommy-John surgery, back issues during 2023’s rehab, and previous left shoulder issues indicate that he probably won’t be touching 200 IP next year. Here are ZiPs’ long-term projections for Means which take into consideration the fact that he had TJ, but do not factor in his return starts in 2023:

Do you like what you see? I certainly would love to have a cost-effective starting pitcher in 2024 who posts a 1.22 WHIP. I would just need to have some strikeout accumulators to pair with him. In 2023, Lucas Giolito, Charlie Morton, Lance Lynn, Jesús Luzardo, and Dylan Cease (among others) have a WHIP above 1.22. If Means is effective and healthy in his next two starts, I’d be very likely to keep him going into 2024.

At the start of the 2021 season, John Means was a front-runner in an early (way too early) Cy-Young award poll. Spoiler alert; he did not win the award. But, he was a valuable fantasy starter for those who played the long game and took his entire season to the finish line. Now, especially in keeper leagues, would be a good time to add a player like John Means, a proven mid-rotation starter who will keep those pesky ratios in check.