How To Win in 2017 – And What That Means for 2018

The winning formula for 2017 was exceptionally simple. Here’s a bullet list guaranteed to finish second or better. Every single one of us had the opportunity to execute this plan – even most rebuilding owners in keeper formats.

• Acquire a few stud hitters with stolen base potential – think Jose Altuve or Paul Goldschmidt. Use the Stars and Scrubs meta in auction leagues.
• Pick up two or more stud pitchers from the Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale, and Kluber bucket.
• Make value gambles on players like Jose Ramirez.
• Work the waiver wire. In most leagues, Aaron Judge was (very briefly) free. Lesser sluggers like Tommy Pham were cheaper than free. Arms like Alex Wood, Jimmy Nelson, Zack Godley, and Charlie Morton also cost nothing and were exceptionally obvious additions.
• Buy low on Craig Kimbrel in-draft, churn waiver wire closers for the rest of your saves.

While you may not have had access to a specific player like Altuve or Kershaw, the general approach still holds true. And you could have gotten even more bang for your buck by selecting Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton for a relative bargain.

Now that we know how to win in 2017, how do we apply this information to next season?

Roadmap: 2018

There is a simple truth I’ve learned over my years as a fantasy writer – don’t react too strongly to the most recent season. This realization punched me in the facing during the 2016 campaign. I had spent the offseason talking up the importance of aces. The 2015 season featured so many good pitchers that it seemed necessary to out-ace the competition. Instead, 2016 turned out to be a great year for using cheap hurlers. The big names largely flopped while streamable Rick Porcello and a buy-low Justin Verlander were among the top performers.

In other words, the 2017 roadmap is NOT the 2018 roadmap. In all honesty, we don’t know the best way to win next year. It will probably be different than 2015, 2016, and 2017. Or maybe not. However, there are some general truths about the league that we should consider.

Home Runs are King

And it’s not likely to change any time soon. Even if Major League Baseball magically un-juices the baseballs – and I don’t think they will – players have bought into the fly ball revolution. Even if next season isn’t another record campaign, the odds are good that we’ll approach 1,600 home runs again. Hitters are swinging for the fences, and they understand exactly how to do it.

Implementing individually optimized mechanics is no longer about feel. We can instantaneously measure which mechanical changes benefit a batter. There will be more Chris Taylors next season. On that note…

It’s Never Been Easier to Break Out

All it takes is some physical talent and an affinity for finding your optimized mechanics. This is true for both hitters and pitchers. In the past, baseball players were extremely conservative when it came to adjusting their mechanics. Even fringy players would stick with what got them to The Show rather than take a risk.

I link the start of this breakout bonanza to Jose Bautista (at least for hitters). Bautista was a journeyman until he found the right set of adjustments. Then he became a superstar. Even with Bautista’s success, only a few players per season followed in his footsteps. Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson, J.D. Martinez. Somewhere around Martinez, the air ball revolution reached a tipping point. All of a sudden, Daniel Murphys and Justin Turners were teaching their teammates the importance of hard, fly ball contact. It’s spread like a plague.

Not every player should hit only fly balls. We can’t all be Ryan Schimpf. Hell, Ryan Schimpf probably shouldn’t be Ryan Schmipf. I don’t think we’re at any risk of all players turning into 60 percent fly ball hitters. Even so, seemingly slappy hitters like Elvis Andrus and Ender Inciarte benefited from a slight increase to their average launch angle. Every player has a personal optimization formula, and they’re only going to get better at achieving it. We’re entering a very technical (and deep) phase of professional baseball.

Playable Speed is Rare

It’s increasingly difficult to roster stolen bases. And when you get your steals in a near-zero homer package like Billy Hamilton, you’re suddenly at a huge disadvantage in home runs (and other categories). A fantasy average outfielder is going to hit 20 home runs. You’ll need to make up the difference elsewhere. It’s even worse if your steals are coming from a part-timer like Mallex Smith or *shudders* Jose Peraza.

There’s good news. Unplayable speed can magically become playable speed because It’s Never Been Easier to Break Out.

Pitchers are Danger

I’ve spent some time gloating about successfully spending 70 percent of my budget on pitchers this year (two leagues). My glee is in part due to the fickle nature of pitchers. It’s a low percentage strategy. I employed it specifically because my leaguemates had overreacted to the lessons of 2016 – i.e. pitchers are fickle. There is a price where it makes sense to roll the dice with Kershaw, Scherzer, and Sale. I paid that price this year. I doubt it’ll happen next year. Everybody will want two top-10 aces.

Every pitcher has about a 30 percent risk for a disruptive injury. There’s also a chance for sudden decline. And top performing pitchers rarely breakout a second time. The upside tends to be modest. The downside is always elbow/shoulder oblivion. Meanwhile, $0 Godleys and Mortons can turn into $20 assets with almost no downside.

I’ll say this succinctly. Anybody who tells you they know the optimal pitching strategy before a season is a fool. Search for the best values. This year, the elite arms were relative bargains. Next season, I bet those second and third tier guys will be cheap, cheap, CHEAP.

Recommendations

For now, let’s wait and see. Watch what my fellow analysts and I have to say about the 2018 draft class. Plan to cut against the grain. I’m sure you know the old standby about zigs and zags. One thing is probably certain: auction leaguers should start mentally preparing for the most stars and scrubs season in history.

Mostly, be prepared to push the 2017 season out of your mind. Your ability to look beyond recent history will give you a leg up on the competition.