Hitter Auction Calculator Awards: Don’t Call Me a Rabbit

To qualify for this totally made-up award, a player must have been projected to earn positive value in the stolen base category (mSB) on our Auction Calculator (default settings, steamer projections) and negative value in every other category. They then needed to earn positive value in at least three of the four non-SB categories (mR, mHR, mRBI, mAVG).

Finalists: Bobby Witt Jr., Daulton Varsho, Dansby Swanson

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Finalist #1: Bobby Witt Jr., Projected negative: mAVG, mHR, mRBI, mR. Earned positive: mHR, mRBI, mR, mSB

Surely there will be plenty written about Bobby Witt Jr.’s rookie season in fantasy realms this offseason. His preseason projections were likely low due to the uncertainty of his playing time/call-up situation. It was clear that he was going to be good. But, would you have guessed he’d finish as the fifth-best third-baseman by auction value earned? It was clear that he was going to steal bases, and in the end, that’s what drove his value. If you look at any one of his 15-game rolling charts not involving base running, it would tell you a story of a 22-year-old rookie who has a lot of potential but may not have lit the world on fire in his first year. It happens.

Witt outperformed all of his roto-category projections except for his batting average. He was projected to hit .257 and he hit .254. Not bad, steamer projections. Compared to his 2021 AAA stats, his line-drive rate was down and his ground ball rate was up. He also put out fewer fly-balls for home runs than he did in AAA. However, he still showed that he has the 22-year-old ability to absolutely smoke the ball with his 92nd Statcast percentile maxEV. But, he had a difficult time with major league four-seamers, putting up a -7 Statcast run value and a 23rd worst (among qualified hitters) -2.6 pitch-info p-val on wFA. However, Witt accumulated 632 plate appearances in his rookie season (second behind Steven Kwan) and that experience must be worth a few extra dollars going into 2023.

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Finalist #2: Daulton Varsho, Projected negative: mAVG, mHR, mRBI, mR. Earned positive: mHR, mRBI, mR, mSB

One thing to keep in mind is Varsho’s increased projected value due to his eligibility at catcher. The positional scarcity earns him a higher value. But, Varsho was a catcher-eligible player who was expected to run and he did not disappoint, stealing a career-high (MLB) 16 bases. He also put together a close-to-full season with 592 plate appearances in 151 games. He was a workhorse this season and everything but his batting average (.234) showed it.

However, these roto-value gains don’t seem to be accompanied by much underlying Statcast data:

He did catch 31 games in 2022, so depending on your league rules, he may or may not be eligible again at the catcher position in 2023. Regardless, no matter which way you look at it, 27 home runs and 16 stolen bases at the catcher position in 2022 play nicely on any fantasy team under any league parameters. For a player who has only had roughly one and a half seasons at the major league level, I’m looking forward to seeing his 2023 projections.

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…and the award goes to…

Finalist #3: Dansby Swanson, Projected negative: mAVG, mHR, mRBI, mR. Earned positive: mHR, mRBI, mR, mSB, mAVG

As Swanson heads into free agency this offseason, his 2022 totals indicate that he intended to make a statement.  In 2022 he put up the most plate appearances of his career, scored the most runs, hit the most RBI, and stole the most bases. He also put up his lowest BB%, which didn’t help those rostering him in OBP leagues. His K% has been on an upward trend in the past three seasons, but so have his home run totals, FB% and SwStr%.

Is he selling out for power? Maybe. But he also outperformed his batting average projection (steamer) of .245 by over 20 points (.277) and the 2022 major league average was .243.

Don’t call him a rabbit, but he did run, stealing a career-high 18 bags. However, he’s not being given this award because he stole bases, he’s being given this prestigious award because he did everything else.

Congratulations to Dansby Swanson on an amazing season and to any fantasy managers that rostered him. Next week, I’ll begin my dishing out these highly coveted awards to pitchers.