Here Come the Prospects: Cubs and Brewers

When it comes to fantasy baseball, not all prospects are created equally. In keeper leagues and dynasty leagues it’s important to have strategies around your prospects; you don’t want to just randomly grab a Top 10 or 20 prospect and hope for the best.

Along with skill, knowing a player’s ETA is key. Is the player advanced enough to help in 2016… or is he headed for a 2019 debut? Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a talented dude but he’s not likely to visit the Great White North until 2020. Chicago (AL) drafted Carson Fulmer in 2015 with the eighth overall pick but he’s considered advanced enough to perhaps help the club in ’17. And then there’s Colorado’s Trevor Story, who is likely to turn the Jose Reyes soap opera and a strong spring into a ’16 starting gig.

As a result, your strategy around acquiring prospects should vary. If you’re grabbing a guy earmarked to help in 2017 or later, you should look at them like a stock — an investment that you hope to see increase in value before you cash out (either by adding to your active roster or by trading for an opportunity to win sooner). You also have to consider if you’re truly committed to a long-range prospect and willing to commit a roster spot to someone who may not help for three or four years — if at all. Prospects with a ’16 or ’17 should be viewed as players that can be valuable (albeit potentially inconsistent) contributors to the current makeup of your roster at a reasonable cost.

Over the course of the next few weeks we’ll have a look at the expect time frames for key prospects in each organization. So far we’ve looked at:

Dodgers/Padres
Giants/Rockies
Diamondbacks/Angels
Rangers/Athletics
Mariners/Astros

2016 Sleeper: Willson Contreras, C: The veteran tandem of Miguel Montero and David Ross is solid but the upside of Contreras could be too hard to ignore for much longer. The young backstop broke out in a big way offensively in 2015 and is at it again in 2016. At triple-A, he’s currently hitting .478 through six games. He’s shown the ability to hit for a high average, get on base and produce gap power — all things that could help him develop into an impact catcher at the big league level.

2017 Stud: Ian Happ, 2B/OF: An ETA of 2017 might sound aggressive for a 2015 first round pick but this college product has hit well as a pro and earned a ’16 opening-day assignment to high-A ball. Happ is a well-rounded hitter who can do a little bit of everything at the plate — although he won’t be a big home run hitter. The biggest challenge for this young hitter will be finding a position to play.

Long-term Investment: Gleyber Torres, SS: Addison Russell is a pretty nifty shortstop in his own right so Torres faces a tough task ahead. More than likely, he’ll eventually move to another position to accommodate the defensive wizardry of the incumbent. Torres is just 19 but he’s already playing in high-A ball and could be ready for The Show in 2018 if he continues to follow his current development path. He has a chance to hit for both average, steal 20+ bases and slug homers in the double digits.

2016 Sleeper: Josh Hader, LHP: I’ve been a huge fan of Hader for a couple of years now and it looks about ready to explode at the big league level. It just remains to be seen if it’s as a starter or (more likely) a reliever. The lefty has above-average stuff but has struggled with his command/control as a pro. However, he made strides in that area in 2015 and that has carried into ’16. Through two starts this year (9 innings), Hader has 12 strikeouts and three walks.

2017 Stud: Brett Phillips, OF: The Brewers opened the year with a lot of question marks around the center-field position; none of Keon Broxton, Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Rymer Liriano are the answer — short-term or long-term. Phillips, though, should be ready to take over the position — for a long time — no later than 2017. He doesn’t have impact power in his bat but he does everything else really well, including hit for average and run the bases. He should eventually develop into a top-of-the-order threat.

Long-term Investment: Trent Clark, OF: A first round pick in 2015 out of a Texas high school in 2015, Clark started hitting the minute he turned pro and never looked back. Despite his success in his debut, the organization played it safe and held him back in extended spring training when the minor league season began in ’16. In his prime, Clark should hit for average, steal a whack of bases and produce gap power. He’s about four years away from helping Milwaukee.