Heads up on Headley
Padres prospect Chase Headley made his major league debut in 2008, hitting .269/.337/.420 with nine homers in 331 at bats. What can we expect in 2009?
Headley struck out in 31% of his at bats with the Padres – a lofty number for a guy who only hit nine homers. In the minor leagues Headley struck out a lot as well – he Ked in 25% of his at bats in triple-A this year, and 26% of his at bats in double-A in 2007. Furthermore, Headley will be 25 years old in May; he’s young, but he’s not that young. Thus, while it’s reasonable to expect some improvement from Headley in the strikeout department, all signs suggest that he will strike out a lot next year, too.
All of those strikeouts will keep his batting average down, but at least Headley hits the ball hard when he does make contact. His 24.7% line drive percentage supports his .369 BABIP; furthermore, his minor league track record suggests that Headley will continue to his a lot of line drives and have a high BABIP: his LD% in triple-A this year was 21.9%, and in double-A last year it was 23.8%.
Thus, while the high amount of strikeouts prevent Headley from having a high batting average, his line-drive percentage should keep his BA from falling too low. The .269 average he posted in 2008 seems like a reasonable approximation of what to expect going forward – perhaps Headley will strike out a little less often in the future, but this may be negated by a (somewhat small) drop in his LD%, as few hitters can sustain an LD% over 24%.
Headley displayed tremendous power over the last two seasons in the minors, slugging .576 in double-A in 2007 and following it up with a .556 SLG in triple-A in 2008. However, Headley’s isolated power was not as impressive as you might expect (.249 and .251); rather, it seems that while Headley did indeed hit for a lot of power, much of his high SLG was inflated by a high batting average – and remember, that high batting average is unlikely to continue in the majors.
Thus, while Headley does possess power, his minor league track record may overstate just how much power he has. Furthermore, Headley plays for the San Diego Padres, which means that he has to play half of his home games in PETCO Park. PETCO, as you probably know, absolutely kills homers, hurts doubles, is relatively neutral on singles, and inflates triples. Judging from what we know about Headley, PETCO seems like it will hurt him even more than it might hurt another player – Headley won’t put too many balls in play, and will lose a tremendous amount of homers (and doubles, not that fantasy players care too much about them) thanks to his home park.
Sure enough, in his half-season with the Padres in 2008, Headley hit .301/.361/.470 with five homers on the road, but only .230/.307/.358 with four homers at home. Headley might be worth platooning if you are able to couple him with another decent 3B; however, that may be a waste of a valuable roster spot that would be better served by simply playing Headley’s platoon partner full-time.
If there’s one area in which Headley could improve, it’s by hitting more fly balls. Only 37% of his balls in play were fly balls in 2008 – if he can up this number, he should be able to hit more homers. However, in the minors his fly ball rate fluctuated between 39% and 44%, suggesting that while Headley may be able to improve somewhat, it will take a dramatic improvement to get his fly ball rate up to 50% or so.
Finally, it looks like Headley is entrenched in left field, unless the Padres move Kevin Kouzmanoff. In fantasy baseball, Chase Headley the outfielder is even less valuable than Chase Headley the third baseman. If Headley regains (or retains) third base eligibility in your league, he will have slightly more value.
Chase Headley is a solid player, but don’t get too excited about him. He doesn’t appear to have that much power in the first place, and what power he does have is going to be sapped by PETCO Park. He’s worth drafting, but only a late-round flier. Let someone else overvalue him.