Has Carmona Turned the Corner?

Though he’s still just 26 years old, Fausto Carmona has played many parts during the course of his pro career. The 6-4, 230 pound righty, signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2000, once was a top prospect — his ground ball-generating sinker and impressive control (career 1.6 BB/9 in the minors) led Baseball America to name him the 76th-best prospect in the game prior to 2004. After a brief bullpen cameo with the Indians in 2006, Carmona blossomed into a front-line starter, racking up 4.2 WAR in 2007. But that success was short-lived — with those pesky midges seemingly stealing his ability to throw strikes, Carmona’s walk rate soared in 2008 and 2009. He posted just 1.3 WAR over that period, missing significant time with a left hip injury in ’08 and earning a punitive demotion to Triple-A in ’09.

In 2010, however, Carmona looks to be back on track. He’s got a 3.69 ERA in 109.2 innings, and he’ll head to Anaheim next week as Cleveland’s representative in the All-Star game. Is Fausto back? Digging a little deeper reveals a mixed bag of results — he’s clearly pitching better this season than in 2008 and 2009, but he’s not approaching that halcyon 2007 level of performance.

Back in ’07, Carmona supplemented a modest K rate (5.73 K/9) with excellent control (2.55 BB/9) and ground balls by the bucketful (64.3 GB%). The final product? A 3.88 xFIP in 215 frames. Carmona put plenty of pitches within the strike zone (51.4%, compared to the 50.3% average that season), but he still managed a league-average swinging strike rate of 8.6 percent. In 2008 and 2009, though, Carmona struggled to locate his pitches and got fewer batters to swing and miss:

In 246 combined innings in ’08 and ’09, Carmona struck out 5.01 batters per nine and issued 5.12 BB/9. His ground ball rate, while still strong, declined to 59.2%. With fewer whiffs and worm burners, as well as a walk rate that doubled compared to 2007, Carmona posted a cringe-worthy 5.05 xFIP.

This season, Carmona has improved — somewhat. His punch out rate has actually fallen again (4.68 K/9), and he’s getting swinging strikes just 6.3%. His ground ball rate (58.1%) is below that mid-sixties total from ’07 and comes in under his average over the ’08 and ’09 seasons, too (even so, Carmona’s GB% is fourth-highest among MLB starters). But most importantly, he has pared his walk rate down to 3.2 per nine innings pitched, while putting an above-average number of pitches within the strike zone (49.8%, compared to the 47.1% MLB average).

Not surprisingly, Carmona’s cut in free passes dished out is the result a sharper sinker. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Carmona threw his fastball for a strike 60.2% of the time over the 2008-2009 seasons (62-64% MLB average), with batters swinging at 42.6% of the fastballs he threw (42-45% MLB average). So far in 2010, he’s throwing his fastball for a strike 63.9%, with hitters offering at 45.3% of those pitches.

Carmona’s xFIP is 4.54, certainly serviceable but not nearly as shiny as his current 3.69 ERA. His BABIP is .274, compared to a .299 career BABIP, and his home run per fly ball rate is 6.9% (10.7% career average, right around the MLB average). For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a 4.55 FIP for Fausto. It’s likely that once Carmona is done rubbing elbows with baseball’s elite at the Midsummer Classic, he’ll give up more hits on balls in play and won’t see as many fly balls die at the warning track.