Harden on the Market

Is there a more frustrating starter in the game than Rich Harden?

Since he broke into the big leagues at age 21, Harden has compiled a 3.58 FIP, while punching out 9.35 batters per nine frames. The slim right-hander totes a searing four-seam fastball, a knee-weakening slider and a changeup making MLB hitters resemble beer league softball players in the second game of a double-header.

Unfortunately, any discussion of Harden’s immense talent includes the qualifier, “when healthy.” His DL history reads like a Tolstoy novel. Shoulder ailments have haunted Harden throughout his career. But you name it, and the soon-to-be 28 year-old has strained it. The latest entries into the file are a back injury that sidelined him in May, and shoulder fatigue that cut his September short.

Overall, Harden made 26 starts for the Cubs in 2009. His 4.09 ERA in 141 IP doesn’t look near as shiny as his Gibson-like 2.07 ERA in 148 innings between Oakland and Chicago in 2008. But there wasn’t near as much of a difference between those two campaigns as you might think.

Harden’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized home run/fly ball rate) was 3.70 in 2009. In 2008? 3.70.

In 2008, Harden whiffed 11.01 hitters per nine innings. In 2009, he posted 10.91 K/9. He wasn’t as sharp painting the corners this past year, issuing 4.28 BB/9 compared to 3.71 BB/9 in 2008.

In ’08, The 6-1 righty posted a very low .265 BABIP on the season. Granted, Rich is an extreme fly ball pitcher (his 49% FB rate in 2008 was highest among starters tossing 140+ IP). Fly balls have a lower BABIP than grounders, and Harden is adept at getting batters to pop the ball up. Over the past two seasons, he has the fourth-highest infield/fly ball rate among starters.

Those two factors combine to depress his BABIP more than that of most starters (his career BABIP is .284). But a mark in the mid-.260’s was bound to regress. In 2009, Harden’s BABIP climbed to .304.

Harden’s HR/FB rate also changed drastically between 2008 and 2009. In ’08, Rich gave up a dinger on just 6.5% of his fly balls. That was fifth-lowest among starters, and well below the typical 11-12% average for pitchers. In ’09, Harden’s HR/FB rate skyrocketed to 15.1% (third-highest among starters).

According to Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online, Harden gave up nine “Just Enough” home runs in 2009. “Just Enough” homers are defined as “balls that clear the fence by less than 10 vertical feet” or balls that “landed less than one fence height past the fence.” In other words, Rich surrendered plenty of wall-scrapers. Expect to see fewer taters hit against Harden in 2010.

Harden benefitted from an abnormally high rate of stranding runners on base in 2008 as well. His 84.4 LOB% was the highest among starters. In ’09, Harden’s LOB% came back down to 74.3%, right around his career 74.9% mark.

Despite the massive gap in ERA, the difference between Rich Harden’s performance in 2008 and 2009 was largely superficial. He combined superb pitching with some fortuitous breaks in ’08, but then saw Lady Luck turn a cold shoulder to him in 2009. His skill-based numbers were very similar.

Entering 2010, fantasy owners are in much the same position as MLB GMs when it comes to evaluating Harden. How much are you willing to bet on his transient brilliance?

Harden strikes me as the ideal middle-round target. Yes, there are three things that you can guarantee in life: death, taxes and a Rich Harden DL stint. But 125-150 excellent innings from the free agent hurler may well be more valuable than 175-200 frames from a more mundane starter. There’s risk, to be sure, but snatching up a top-shelf talent at a reduced price is worth the trouble.