Hanrahan’s Altered Approach and Fantasy Implications

On Wednesday I explained why Joel Hanrahan is a bit undervalued in comparison to John Axford. The next step I decided to take is to evaluate Hanrahan’s fastball to elaborate on why his success last year should continue this season as well. After all, Hanrahan had 269 innings in his career before the 68.2 he threw last year. Standard thinking would force one to believe his 209 ERA+ season was an outlier, as his career ERA+ is just 106.

However, as I explained in the article earlier this week, Hanrahan altered his approach on the mound. He turned into a fastball dominant pitcher, moving away from the fastball-slider combination he had utilized for the majority of his career. At least some credit must be given to Ray Searage, the Pirates pitching coach, and the rest of the group that decided this would be a much more effective way for Hanrahan to pitch.

Hanrahan’s Heater	Freq.	MPH	Strike	Ball	BIP	Whiff	GB
Career	68%	96.11	61.65%	37.13%	17.29%	6.78%	7.67%
2010	61%	96.74	61.64%	37.07%	15.66%	6.32%	7.33%
2011	83%	97.82	63.62%	34.97%	19.88%	7.72%	10.18%

The above chart features numbers taken from Hanrahan’s player card, via Brooks Baseball. What was surprising at first was that his whiff rate was actually higher last year compared to the season before and his career average. His strikeout rate last season was just 22.3% compared to 34% the year before and 25% for his career. With higher strikeout rates, one would assume that he was missing more bats with his most dominant pitch.

The reason for the strikeouts dropping despite the higher whiff rate is the frequency of which he threw his fastball. His slider has created whiffs at a 25% rate over his career, so the big reduction in sliders thrown led to fewer total strikeouts. On its face, fewer strikeouts is often a bad thing. In Hanrahan’s case, it was quite the opposite. More fastballs and fewer sliders led to added strike throwing consistency. His slider actually has a better strike percentage of 62.76% compared to the 61.15% rate of his fastball as shown above. Last year, the inverse was true. More fastballs led to more strikes, and added confidence in the pitch.

In the above video, Hanrahan speaks about his improved fastball command for a brief moment. The cause for the increase in velocity is difficult to determine, but the improved command led to more swing attempts by hitters, which led to more strikes overall. The uptick in velocity led to more whiffs with the fastball and also more ground balls.

The ground balls are what really helped Hanrahan enjoy such a stellar season. A 36 point drop in BABIP seems large and would point to a regression, but the improved ground ball rate means using his career BABIP to analyze whether he should revert back to career norms or continue to receive this type of success on balls in play makes little sense.

He should see continued success with the fastball-heavy approach, as long as his command does not evade him. The drop in strikeouts is less of a concern, as his current rate is far from troubling. Though the strikeout rate is down from past seasons, it is still well above league average. Limiting walks, creating ground balls, and stabilizing his velocity around the 97 mph mark will be the biggest keys in Hanrahan repeating his 2011 campaign. For cautionary purposes, if your draft is closer to the start of the season, follow him throughout the spring and focus on the usage of his fastball. If it is consistent with last year’s, draft Hanrahan with full confidence that 2011 was no fluke.