Guess!…That!…Pitch!

Let’s play a game. We’ll look at one single at-bat and go through each pitch pausing in-between to assess what we think will happen next. The goal of this game is to guess the final outcome; pitch type, pitch location, and result. Let’s get started with our first edition of…Guess!…That!…Pitch!!

Today we’ll be focusing on Adam Wainwright. In 2021, he led the league in called strike rate (CStr%) and owned the fourth most valuable curveball according to PVal among qualified starters. Here is his 2021 pitch breakdown:

 

All studied up? Now, let’s get into the situation. It’s August 22nd, 2021 and the Cardinals are still on the outside looking in at a playoff spot. We check in on Mr. Wainwright as he prepares to throw pitch number 64, the tying run is on third, there are two outs and St. Louis leads 1-0 in the top of the fifth. Wainwright has been pitching well and has accumulated six strikeouts up until this point. In 0-0 counts in 2021, Adam Wainwright threw the following pitches:

2021, 0-0 counts

 

But, Wainwright is not in an ordinary 0-0 count at the moment in question. Here’s how this chart changes when we get really specific and look at 0-0 counts with runners in scoring position, two outs and a left-handed hitter at-bat:

2021, 0-0 counts, RISP, 2 outs, left-handed hitters

 

That’s a pretty big jump in curveball usage when comparing the two situations. It’s time to guess! In order to help with load times and to not give any clues away, I’ve included the link to the Savant video clip. I think it works better this way but if you disagree you could always post a comment as I plan on doing these a few times this offseason. Let’s see what happens on the first pitch (#65 total for Wainwright in this game) to the lefty, Hoy Park.

0-0, bottom of the fifth, runner on third, 2 outs

CLICK THE LINK FOR the 0-0 to Park. 

 

 

 

 

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Now, you might have guessed that one. I recently wrote about the very interesting called strike. Wainwright was the king of it in 2021 and you can tell why. That ball just loops in there like a swirly lollipop from a beach boardwalk candy store. Now, if you’re Park, you have a few options. In 0-1 counts in 2021, Wainwright threw the curveball 34.8% of the time, a cutter 23.5% of the time, and a sinker 21% of the time. Park really wants that runner in from third to tie the game. Let’s see what Wainwright delivers:

0-1, bottom of the fifth, runner on third, 2 outs

CLICK THE LINK FOR the 0-1 to Park. 

 

 

 

 

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Another curveball that just misses the bottom corner of the zone for a ball. Park has to be worried. That second curveball was dangerously close to putting him at 0-2. But, there is no time to worry. Park needs to show this re-building Pirates organization that he belongs, that he can knock in runs, and that he is the second baseman of the future. He digs in and prepares for the next pitch.

1-1, bottom of the fifth, runner on third, 2 outs

CLICK THE LINK FOR the 1-1 to Park. 

 

 

 

 

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There’s something new, the sinker. Park’s patience has paid off and he finds himself ahead in the count. Park may be asking himself, “What did that data guy say Wainwright throws most often when he’s behind?” Well, here’s one of my favorite Savant visualizations, the Pitcher Plinko. Clicking the link shows you the animated visualization, but here is the finished product as well:

Now, can you use it to determine what happens next? Did Park? Let’s find out.

2-1, bottom of the fifth, runner on third, 2 outs

CLICK THE LINK FOR the 2-1 to Park. 

 

 

 

 

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Perfect! Another ball puts Park even further ahead. He has not swung yet and Wainwright needs a strike. I suppose he doesn’t need an out here. A walk wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Waiting on deck is Wilmer Difo who batted .138 in 34 plate appearances with runners in scoring position and 2-outs. That’s not a ton of pressure. What’s the call? Here you go:

3-1, bottom of the fifth, runner on third, 2 outs

CLICK THE LINK FOR the 3-1 to Park. 

 

 

 

 

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Wow. Just, wow. The called strike king does it again and shows you just how valuable that curveball was in 2021. The count is full, here comes the last pitch. Park has-not-swung-yet! What will Wainwright do? Here’s a little more information before you make your final guess. We can see from the plinko image above that in 3-2 counts in 2021, Wainwright threw the curveball the majority of the time. But, he goes to the cutter, the four-seamer, and the sinker fairly evenly. Park must be itching to let it fly, he’s been so patient up until this point. That runner on third is just drooling, staring at home plate, hoping to touch it and tie the game. It’s time to make your guess. What does Wainwright throw? Where does he throw it? What is the outcome?

3-2, bottom of the fifth, runner on third, 2 outs

CLICK THE LINK FOR the 3-2 to Park. 

 

 

 

 

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ANSWER:

There you have it. The 3-2 four-seamer at the bottom of the zone entices Park to swing, forcing him into a groundball, third out. Wainwright leaves the inning unscathed. Among all starting pitchers in 2021, Wainwright ranked 20th in opponents’ batting average (.164) in 2-out/RISP situations. He ranked 37th in opponents wOBA (.267) and 28th (.269) in slugging in the same situations. In this particular game, he would go on to record nine strikeouts, giving up only two hits, no runs, and record the win. Here is the box score and play log for your review. Thank you for playing and see you next time on…Guess!…That!…Pitch!