Graveman and Lee: Deep League Waiver Wire

Kendall Graveman (3% Yahoo, 1.6% ESPN, 11% CBS) – on its surface, Graveman’s 5.48 ERA is enough to scare off most casual fans. And his 5.91 FIP and 4.33 xFIP suggest there’s little to see here. Yawn. Move on, right? Well, maybe. But depending on your league size, Kendall Graveman could be a surprising source of productive innings moving forward.

First, the bad. I’ve already touched on his disappointing ERA and the indicators that support it. He’s also walking more batters than he did last year. In fact, his 3.59 BB/9 would be by far the worst of his career, including his time in the minor leagues. After his start on Thursday, his Zone% is sitting at 42%, a 4-point drop from his 2015 rate. And then there’s the home runs. His HR/FB% is a ghastly 25%. As you might suspect, this is where we start looking for upside.

ESPN Hit Tracker classifies 6 of the 10 home runs Graveman has given up as Just Enough, a far higher percentage than the league average, and just 1 No-Doubter. Among 117 pitchers with at least 100 balls-in-play, Graveman’s average home run distance is the 22^nd lowest at 389 feet. That kind of bad luck is reflected in the 1.05 run differential between his ERA and xFIP. So while his exit velocity sits above league average, we can reasonably expect his homer problem to subside.

Where Graveman sets himself apart is in the ground game. Among starters who’ve thrown at least 40 innings, his 52.9% ground ball rate sits 21^st in the league, just behind teammate, Sonny Gray. And while the ground ball rate on most of his pitches have decreased this season, his cutter, which he’s throwing more often, is inducing them 62% of the time.

Graveman’s velocity is also up across the board contributing to higher whiff and strikeout rates. His SwStr% has jumped two points, buoyed by increased velocity across all pitches and more movement on his sinker, cutter, and change. And while the league-wide chase rate is at its lowest since 2009, Graveman’s is up. So along with throwing his ground ball-inducing cutter more often, he’s also upped the usage of his whiff-inducing slider, leading to more ground balls and more strikeouts.

Look, his 7 K/9 won’t turn any heads but more strikeouts, supported by better velocity, increased movement, and elevated whiffs hint at some upside here, especially when coupled with elite ground ball rates. That is, so long as Graveman’s home run luck corrects itself.

With the A’s rotational depth quickly depleting, concerns about his ability to stick in a deep rotation appear largely overblown. I’m less concerned with Graveman’s ability to keep the ball in the yard than I am with his recent control issues. He draws Seattle, Minnesota, and Houston in his next three starts, overall a favorable schedule but the M’s and Astros both rank in the top 10 in BB%. I’ll be keeping an eye on his walks in the coming week to see if he can get them under control. If he does, Graveman may be poised to take a major step forward.

 

Dae-Ho Lee (1% Yahoo, 0.8% ESPN 3% CBS) – seems like all Dae-Ho Lee does is hit homers. Politely listed at 250 pounds, if he did anything other than hit homers, I’d be a little surprised. Lee is already up to 6 on the season aided by an average FB/LD exit velocity that ranks 82^nd out of 298 batters with at least 40 balls-in-play. But if anything, it’s obvious that he’s benefitted from a great deal of luck. The average true distance of his home runs sits below league average, making his 46% HR/FB rate look even more ridiculous than it would given a cursory glance.

Early on, Lee has exhibited an ability to hit righties, albeit in limited playing time as he occupies the short side of a platoon. He’s currently sporting a .441 wOBA against them in 22 plate appearances. His BABIP shows room for improvement, although given his *ahem* heft, don’t expect a huge jump. Surprisingly, he’s already legged out 2 infield hits, which I’m dying to see.

But this piece is less about Lee than it is about opportunity. Just as Kendall Graveman likely benefits from a longer leash given Oakland’s evaporating rotation depth, Adam Lind’s struggles should continue to open the door for Lee. Lind’s wRC+ currently sits at a career-low 57, his ISO a career-low .106, his walk rate a career low 4.2%, his strikeout rate a career…you get the point. Most compelling however is Lind’s utter ineffectiveness against righties, manifesting itself in a .234 wOBA. Lind doesn’t hit lefties, never has, and he doesn’t add anything with his glove, never will.

The Mariners are riding atop the division with the AL’s second best run differential. With no contractual obligations to Lind beyond this season, the M’s may not have the patience to let Lind play through his struggles.

And why not play Lee more? While it’s hard to find KBO and NPB splits, it’s also hard to imagine a player could dominate both leagues if he lacked the ability to hit right-handed pitching. And given that half of Lee’s homers have come against righties, despite facing them in just over a third of his plate appearances, it might just be a matter of time before the long-side of the Mariners’ first base platoon shortens considerably.