Go For Encarnacion

It was a fantastic season for Edwin Encarnacion, but his owners are left wondering “what if?” What if he didn’t miss 30-some games with injury. He could have been the top first baseman in baseball. Zach Sanders tabbed Encarnacion’s 79 runs, 34 home runs, 98 RBI, two steals, and .268 average as worth $20. Per FantasyPros, he cost about $28 to draft. While he didn’t return a profit for his owners, it was a good season to hold shares of Encarnacion.

If you’re doing any surface level analysis, you’ll probably notice a .260 BABIP and wonder if he could regress to the .300 range. Unfortunately, Encarnacion appears doomed to have a low BABIP. In 2014, his infield fly ball rate was 13.9 percent while his line drive rate was just 16.4 percent. These are largely consistent with career rates. As a result, his .260 BABIP was basically luck neutral.

This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Nearly 50 percent of his balls in play were fly balls and 18 percent of those have left the yard over the last three seasons. With such a potent HR/FB ratio, I’d happily trade all line drives for fly balls.

While he didn’t walk more than he struck out like in 2013, Encarnacion did maintain laudable walk and strikeout rates. He took free passes over 11 percent of the time and went down swinging at a 15 percent rate. The strikeout rate was his worst since 2010, but I wonder if rust played a factor. His swinging strike rate was low at 7.6 percent, but it didn’t match the near-elite 6.3 percent rate from the previous season.

From 2011 to 2013, Encarnacion offered his owners stealthy speed in the stolen base category. His totals ranged from seven to 13, which isn’t bad production from first base. He’s even had good success rates, which tells me he can pick out spots where the defense has fallen asleep. This year, he swiped just two bags. Perhaps teams did a better to prepare for Encarnacion, or maybe he just isn’t feeling as frisky. Whereas I hoped to get five to 10 swipes from him this season, I wouldn’t expect any steals when drafting him next year. Let them be a pleasant surprise.

His quadriceps injury, which caused him to miss a big chunk of games in the middle of the season, held down his overall numbers. It also probably has something to do with the lower running total. On a home run per plate appearance basis, only Chris Carter out bashed him. He could have joined the 12 100 RBI hitters had he exhibited better health. He had the most RBI per game of any league leader. That’s probably a function of hitting behind Melky Cabrera and Jose Bautista, a configuration that could return in 2015.

Of course, we can’t wish away injuries. Encarnacion is entering his age 32 season and finished the year with mild back inflammation. The quad and back injuries have to raise concern about his ability to survive a 162 game schedule. If the club declines its option on Adam Lind, Encarnacion might be the primary designated hitter. Otherwise, he’ll probably be deployed similarly to this season when he spent 80 games at first base. The amount of time he spends in the field could affect his overall health, so fantasy owners will hope for that designated hitter role.

We’ll have to wait a bit to get a good feel for his value in 2015. The supporting cast is potentially in flux, which will have a large effect on expectations. If Jose Reyes, Cabrera, and Bautista are once again hitting in front of him, a healthy Encarnacion will be a fantasy monster. The Blue Jays are said to be digging for more reinforcements in the AL East, which could mean even more fire power. The downside is injury risk. Encarnacion and all the players supporting him spend more than their share of time on the disabled list. A decimated Jays lineup could erode Encarnacion’s production even if he remains on the field.