Gamble on Gallardo
Yovani Gallardo could be one of the biggest breakout starting pitcher candidates for 2009. The right-hander, who will be just 23 on opening day, appeared ready to assume a full-time gig at the beginning of 2008. However, injuries struck and Gallardo started just four games in the regular season for the Milwaukee Brewers. He did, though, make two appearances – including one start – in the 2008 playoffs. In those two games Gallardo allowed just four hits in seven innings of work. His control was shaky as he allowed five walks to go with four strikeouts.
During the regular season, in his four Major League starts, Gallardo allowed 22 hits in 24 innings of work. He walked eight batters and struck out 20. Three of those starts came early in the season before his injury. Only one start came before he made his playoff appearances. In that one start, he allowed one run on three hits and two walks over four innings of work. He also punched out seven. Of his first 15 pitches thrown in his first game back, Gallardo threw 13 fastballs in the 88-92 mph range and mixed in two curveballs. It wasn’t until his eighth batter in the game that the right-hander threw something other than a fastball or a curveball (It was an 85 mph slider).
In his 2007 season, when he made 20 appearance (17 starts) as a rookie, Gallardo allowed 103 hits in 110.1 innings of work. He also posted solid rates of 3.02 BB/9 and 7.50 K/9. Going forward, Gallardo should have no problems duplicating his previous successes. His 2008 injury – a torn ACL – is not likely to have major, long-term affects on his stuff, which includes a low-90s fastball, curveball, slider and change-up.
The fact that Gallardo remained effective in three appearances after missing almost the entire season speaks volumes about his potential and his make-up – especially considering all three were in high-pressure situations. He is probably not ready to assume 200 innings of work in 2009, but Gallardo should be well rested after missing so much time in 2008 (especially after throwing a career-high 188 innings as a 21-year-old in 2007).
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
Looks like this one was a very good call, Marc. (I was also in the “high on Gallardo” camp last off-season.)
Projection systems seem to have had a difficult time handling Gallardo’s non-pitching-related injury, particularly with respect to projecting playing time. PECOTA’s pre-season weighted mean projection had Gallardo pitching only 115 IP, and the 90th percentile projection had him pitching only 160 IP. (This was particularly interesting in light of the fact that at least 2 BP staffers listed Gallardo on their pre-season Cy Young ballot, which pre-supposes that he pitched a lot more than 160 IP). Even the current ZiPS in-season projection update on Gallardo’s Fangraphs page doesn’t seem to quite believe what we’ve seen so far — it calls for Gallardo to make only 10 starts in the remainder of the year, ending up at 160 IP. Intuitively, I would have figured in the off-season that it was more likely than not that he’d pitch a180 or more IP in 2009.