Flexibility vs. Path of Least Resistance

We usually try to avoid stepping on each others toes here at RotoGraphs. I’m going to risk a little phalanx* squashing to clarify a few of my opinions about something Jeff Z wrote yesterday. Jeff called for fantasy owners to focus on overall production when drafting their rosters. He’s absolutely right, especially in the current post-scarcity meta. Unfortunately, comments on his article – including from me – indicate that we may have distracted ourselves from the actual theme. So let’s reinforce a few important details.

*that’s what the toe bones are called

First, I want to make something perfectly clear: anybody who tells you there is one way to build a fantasy roster is wrong.

The game we play is a complex economic system. There are easy ways and hard ways to optimize your team. There are so many ways to achieve success. A one-size-fits-all solution is a good methodology for new fantasy owners. It’s easier to learn through a set, consistent process. Remember, learning is best achieved through failure. Just to connect the dots, apply the transitive property to those last three sentences.

In a more competitive format, your process should as layered and complex as the game we play. In other words, you do not need 35 home runs from your first baseman. You need production from your roster.

Jeff presented his case using Eric Hosmer as an example. He also pointed to Manny Machado as an alternative. The commenters choked on Hosmer due to perceived volatility. Nearly all of the comments related to some concern about Hosmer when he wasn’t even the point of the article.

Building a roster is an optimization puzzle. You need to balance value with… uh… balance. In most category-based formats, punting – i.e. intentionally ignoring a category – doesn’t work. When selecting your team, you’re aiming to finish third or higher in every single category. That’s how you win a league.

There is a path of least resistance to fashioning a winning roster. Often, that involves getting your home runs and RBI from first base, third base, and the outfield. You’ll find most of your steals from second base, shortstop, and the outfield. Hopefully your catcher does anything. You can mix and match from where you accrue runs and batting average.

We think of this as the easy path to success because the talent pool pushes us in this direction. Only a few first or third baseman steal bases which puts some pressure on us to target swipes from other positions. A player’s value relates directly to how his projected production affects your ability to win.

Just because we know the roadmap to Plan A doesn’t mean we should commit to following it. That is my take away from Jeff’s article. Select the best values when they appear then fit players around them. As he puts it, the key is production and by extension, flexibility.

Finding 30 or 35 home runs at first base is one way to build a roster. It’s also a very popular and common way. One of the best methods for winning a league is to take an uncommon approach.

Last year, I experienced great success by using a 40/60 hitter/pitcher split. Nobody else was doing it, and the deep hitter pool allowed me to keep pace on offense while dominating the pitching stats. My opponents who used the standard 70/30 split fought for fourth place while I battled for the top three spots.

Perhaps this year, finding a lot of batting average and only some power at first base will be an effective twist on the meta. It’s certainly a viable, flexible option – one that could potentially be undervalued. Remember, you want to pack value onto your roster while maintaining a balanced blend of categories.

Ultimately, how you build your roster will be affected by the early rounds (it’s a tad more complicated in auction formats). If you land Paul Goldschmidt – gaining power, speed, and batting average from first base – it has big implications for how you use your other picks. Lucky you, you’ve avoided Jeff’s power or average conundrum at first base. Alas, you’ll undoubtedly have a comparable either-or scenario to consider at another position.

Similarly, nabbing Trea Turner means you probably do need to aim for 30 home runs from your first baseman. You should still remain flexible. Perhaps Joey Gallo winds up on your roster. A team with Turner and Gallo is an excellent fit for Hosmer.

A lot of this requires careful planning and knowing some of the players you’re likely to land later in the draft. If you find yourself targeting value shares of Cesar Hernandez as your starting second baseman – minimal power and RBI, lots of runs, high average, some speed – try to grab an early-round power source. If your big boppers are guys like Hosmer, you may need to shy away from Hernandez.

The point is this: creating a successful fantasy baseball team is a very complicated process. Yes, there is a path of least resistance. Perhaps you will follow it. Perhaps you will even find success while following it.

However, you must, must, must understand that every decision affects how you should optimize your roster. It’s very easy to wander off the path of least resistance. And if you do, recognize that it’s happened. Don’t doggedly pretend you’re still on the same path. Don’t frantically search for a way back to the path. Be prepared to be flexible. Blaze your own trail to fantasy gold.