FG+ Over/Under Game: Trout & Harper
This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.
For our third over/under game, let’s take a look at Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.
The over/under for today’s game is an either/or: Trout or Harper. As in, which player would you want if you were starting a new keeper league today and had the first pick? First, kudos for rigging the game in your favor. Second, I hope it’s an ottoneu league. Third — which one are you taking?
One’s got wheels of steal and surprising pop. The other has light-tower power and the eye blacks of a champion. One is in a crowded outfield but has the ability to contribute in every category. The other has no roadblocks but may be more of your traditional slugger. If you had a subscription to FG+ right now, you could consult David Golebiewski’s excellent piece polling the major prospecters about their preference between the two players, or read Jason Catania on Keeper League Strategies. Zach Sanders’ piece on Valuing Upside Graphically might also come into play.
But since you don’t — and yes, I’m suggesting that current FG + subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can to suss out the difference between these two super studs. If your answer changes depending on league settings, feel free to include that in your answer.
Have at it!
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
I actually have both in a keeper league – points based, favoring power hitters. Although Harper has a year less of statistics, he has consistently shown adjustments to the leagues he has been in and improved over time. Of the more simple statistics, I find it interesting that his BABIP comes out to about .346 in A and AA ball, while Trout had a .392 weighted average for BABIP among the same levels. Understanding that Trout has more speed can explain some of this, but I feel that at the major league level Trout will see more of a drop off in this area, thus bringing a few of his other categories down as well. The small sample size from last year yields .247 in this category (only 135 PAs).
Without delving further into numbers, the fact that Harper has continued to perform and is still a full year younger with much better power hitting prowess, I would go with Harper in most formats. I think we will see even greater improvements in his BB/K ratio that will translate to the majors. In any case, I would be pleased if both of them outperformed any projections to help bolster my OF for years to come.