FG+ Over/Under Game: New Closers
This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.
For our fourth over/under game, let’s take a look at closers in general. Every year, a gaggle of new closers are minted.
The over/under for today’s game is nine. As in, will there be more or less than nine new closers next year? For our purposes, let’s define a new closer as one who will accrue over 20 saves more than he did in 2011.
If you had a subscription to FG+ right now, you could consult Jack Moore’s excellent piece that attempts to use shutdowns and meltdowns to predict closer changes. You would even see a little more about the following figure:
But since you don’t have any more background than a simple tally of the last three years — and yes, I’m suggesting that current FG + subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can to predict the number of closer changes coming in 2012. Use any methods at your disposal.
Have at it!
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
1) Start with the closer chart at THT (maybe there’s one here on FG also, but I found THT quicker.)
2) Go team by team and assign a probability of there being a new closer. Don’t try to account for injuries or unforeseen meltdowns, just figure on 2 of those overall. (Last year I counted 3: PHI, CHW and HOU, although you could argue any of those was foreseeable.)
3) Since even Melancon got 20 saves last year, any team that has no 2011 closer on their roster gets a 1.0 probability. (OAK, CHW, COL, HOU)
4) Some teams have an incumbent with shaky performance and a strong backup candidate (CLE, KC, LAD). They get probablities in the 0.3-0.5 range.
5) Some teams have an incumbent closer who took over late last season, and has a shot at boosting their total saves by 20+ (BAL, TX, MIN, STL, NYM). They get probabilities ranging 0.1 (MIN) to 0.8 (BAL).
6) Everyone else get zero probability. Yes there’s always a chance, but that’s covered by the 2 for unforeseeable events.
Add all these up and I come up with 9.6. So I think your spot on with the over/under, but I’ll take the over.