Fantasy Puzzle: What Will You Pay For Madison Bumgarner?
Madison Bumgarner has emerged as a reliable fantasy ace, one that nobody can ignore after a fantastic postseason. He practically won the World Series all by himself (more on that in this year’s THT Annual) with a 1.03 ERA, four wins, and a save over 52.2 October innings.
He’s a consistent source of fantasy gold due to above average peripherals. His ERA and FIP generally hover around 3.00, making him a four category starter. Home is pitcher friendly AT&T Park, which adds an extra layer of value.
Today’s puzzle question is: What will you pay for him next season?
Here’s a short list of pros and cons to consider. For the purpose of this evaluation, let’s assume a 12 team, $260 auction with standard shallow rosters. That includes nine starting position players, nine pitchers, and a 1450 inning cap. To put pitcher value in perspective, Clayton Kershaw averaged a $30 paycheck according to FantasyPros, although injury deflated his cost somewhat.
Pros:
- Four category production
- Over 200 major league innings in each of the past four seasons and averaged 6.6 innings per start in 2014
- Elite K%-BB% (generally around 20)
- Favorable ballpark
- Excellent stuff backed by consistently strong peripherals
- Durable; minimal injury history
Cons:
- Mileage; pitched 270 innings in 2014 (excluding spring training)
- Pitched 1113.2 innings (regular season, minor leagues, and postseason) since the start of 2010
- May throw a lot of sliders* which correlates to increased injury risk
- Giants offense could be flimsy next season depending on offseason moves (i.e. run support is in question)
*BrooksBaseball classifies it as a cutter, which I believe to be correct. However, depending on how a cutter is thrown, it could theoretically have a similar effect as an injury indicator. That is my supposition as somebody who has spent a lot of time working with cutters and is not supported by research. I find it somewhat concerning that Bumgarner’s cutter is over 4 mph slower than his fastball. That tells me it’s somewhere between a slider and a cutter.
In summary, we have an excellent, durable pitcher who has piled up a few important injury indicators. Keep in mind, he’s entering his age 25 season. So, how do you price this October phenom? Feel free to answer with a specific number or describe in general terms how various parts of his profile will affect your valuation.
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I’d be happy paying anything under $25 for him–he’s no Kershaw, but he’s clearly a top-tier fantasy starter. That said, I expect that, in most leagues, someone will overreact to his postseason, and pay more than that.
I think his post season will cause his value to go up to top 5 pitcher when in my opinion he is a top 10 pitcher.
I agree with this. I’m shopping him around in my keeper league.
I own him for $18 for one more year in a dynasty league that has a stars and scrubs mentality and SP values are hyper inflated (Kershaw went for $63, most top 10 pitchers go for around 50.) In that setting, I wouldn’t hesitate to drop $55 on Bumgarner if he was available this year.
In the scenario you describe, I think I would spend $25, maybe a few bucks more. He has no history of injury, and I’ve never heard of him having a start skipped of having elbow or shoulder discomfort. His motion is very easy and he has proven very durable. He’s still young and has a track record of sustained success. I’d put him as a top 5-6 pitcher, ahead of Kluber and Cueto, on par with Price.
It is interesting how his 200+ innings pitched a year is both a pro and con. I understand the reasoning behind it. I don’t worry too much about career innings, unless it is something way out of line.
I do worry a bit about his 270 innings pitched because he pitched a month more than almost everyone else and in highly stressful situations.
As for value, it is essentially Kershaw and than 5-10 guys in any order you choose. I would pay $22-$25.
I’m in a real-world-salary dynasty league and that team-friendly contract makes him arguably the #1 SP going forward. I also love his smooth and easy delivery, the Ken Griffey Jr of pitching motion.
I dealt Julio Teheran and Zach Wheeler for him in my long term keeper league on 10/22. W, L, K, QS, ERA, WHIP, SVHD… no salaries or anything like that, just 16 keepers with no further restrictions.
you got a pretty good deal. Julio will be a top 20 pitcher for a while, and wheeler has similar upside, but they are not as good as MadBum (top 5) and not that much younger. (wheeler also is not established enough to give him any real sucess rate moving forward) You also managed to free up another keeper slot, something always under rated.
nobody is getting him if you arent paying 25+
25 is where nearly everyone not Kershaw goes for. I think in some leagues someone will go gaga and bid up into the upper 30ies, but 22-28, the rate for most 2-10 SP is about where he goes in every competitive league
I’m just worried about the ridiculous 270 inning workload. Not that he’s ever shown signs of being worn down by postseason play before, but it’s not unheard of for pitchers to have early-season hangovers after something like that.
But yeah, I think he’s the #2 SP in the game right now — in that park, on a good team for Ws, a pretty great defense, and that track record? Kluber might have more upside, but Bumgarner’s only matched by Felix and Kershaw in terms of consistency and health, and in terms of pitching the safer bets are usually the right ones.
Depending on the who the Giants get/retain next year, his win potential could be limited.
debatable. Really just Sandoval, and he his OPS wasnt even near 800.
Got him with my 4th pick this year (3rd was Felix), not going any higher than that.
It’s been said before at FGs, I’ll say it again: even Bumgarner calls it his “slutter”. He didn’t have it when he came up (very briefly in 2009 at 19, as 5th SP in 2010 at 20), it started getting talked up some time in 2012, and this regular season was the first where it formed a regular portion of his arsenal.
From a kinetics standpoint, Bumgarner’s motion puts less stress on the elbow than most for MLB pitchers. That suggests he might well have something of a Walter Johnson career arc (Take a look at YouTube vids made from old newsreels of Johnson’s motion: a low-stress slow sling, like those languid golf swings that transition effortlessly from the regular PGA into the Champions. Another such exception: Satchel Paige, a really slow, languid action never seemed fast until the ball blew by the batter never had; plus, I actually SAW Paige throw live and in person – coupla times, the last in his 60s. He could still bring it, just for less innings.).
Even so, there’s almost invariable co-relation between pitching and injury. Bumgarner’s delivery, demeanor and approach all give him a far better than typical CHANCE of being one of the few who go thru their careers without serious shoulder/arm/elbow/wrist problems, but if he does, he’ll still have defied the odds.
You got to see Satchel Paige? That’s awesome. He’s legendary for his rubber arm—he really pitched a lot of innings.
Normally, I’d be concerned about the number of innings that Bumgarner threw this year and probably pay no more than $25-$26 in a 12 team league, but if you see similarities in the pitching motions of the two, hey, that’s enough to make him less worrisome for me.
Still I’d hold the line somewhere around $28. It depends a lot on the cost of a Kershaw or a King Felix. I’m a risk taker and a value hunter. In the only 12 team league that I played last year, I paid $10 for Garrett Richards–which worked out great until the playoffs came along and he got that freak injury–and $17 for Kluber. (We didn’t have an innings cap.)
I’m pretty sure Bumgarner went for $27 in that league. So, for most of the season, I got great production from two guys for the same cost of Bumgarner. And the money I saved allowed me to probably overpay for Strasburg at $28.
Durability: listening to the comments here about his pitching motion makes me think I may be wrong with Bumgarner, but after a pitcher has logged 5-6 years of lots of innings, I generally shy away from him even if he’s been injury free. “You’re durable until you’re not” is my guiding principle with starters, so 2015 might be the last year I’d be willing to pay a good chunk for him. In any event, a loss of velocity is almost certainly going to happen soon, so unless he develops a killer changeup, the Ks will decrease.
I got a pitch named after me? Awesome….yknow, MadBum is kinda cute…
He is probably a top 3-6 pitcher. If you look at steamers , he is projected to have the 3rd best ERA behind the big 2. Giants offense is also not bad.. so
Tier 1 Kershaw
Tier 2 Felix
Tier 3 Bumgarner/ Strasburg (Ks) / Sale / Darvish (Ks) pretty much exchangeable. Scherzer is also here depending on which team he ends up.
Harvey/JFer/Tanaka are good but have injury issues.
Bottom of the the first tier of pitchers.
You get the most value out of the top of the tier pitchers
NL-Only League. He’s currently $28 and I foresee that his owner will keep him for that price.
That being said Zimmermann (owned by me) and Kershaw are both $30. Kershaw being a total steal due to his injury. On the fence on keeping Zimm at $30
His dominant postseason aside…
His season was basically what everyone expected/paid for in drafts, and there is no reason to change that price point (around 25-27$) or performance expectation for next year. I had him at 20 and am releasing rather than pay 25 for next year so I can find value elsewhere.
Not more than one hamburger per day….oh wait, wrong character quote.
Anyway, I think $20-$25 is a fair value, but I worry about his arm falling off. I’d be leery of drafting top ace pitchers after my bout with Darvish and Tanaka…
I traded Jose Abreu (11th round pick in our draft) for him prior to all star break … very happy with that return post all star break and trade deadline.