Fantasy Puzzle: What Will You Pay For Madison Bumgarner?

by
October 31, 2014

Madison Bumgarner has emerged as a reliable fantasy ace, one that nobody can ignore after a fantastic postseason. He practically won the World Series all by himself (more on that in this year’s THT Annual) with a 1.03 ERA, four wins, and a save over 52.2 October innings.

He’s a consistent source of fantasy gold due to above average peripherals. His ERA and FIP generally hover around 3.00, making him a four category starter. Home is pitcher friendly AT&T Park, which adds an extra layer of value.

Today’s puzzle question is: What will you pay for him next season?

Here’s a short list of pros and cons to consider. For the purpose of this evaluation, let’s assume a 12 team, $260 auction with standard shallow rosters. That includes nine starting position players, nine pitchers, and a 1450 inning cap. To put pitcher value in perspective, Clayton Kershaw averaged a $30 paycheck according to FantasyPros, although injury deflated his cost somewhat.

Pros:

  • Four category production
  • Over 200 major league innings in each of the past four seasons and averaged 6.6 innings per start in 2014
  • Elite K%-BB% (generally around 20)
  • Favorable ballpark
  • Excellent stuff backed by consistently strong peripherals
  • Durable; minimal injury history

Cons:

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.
  • Mileage; pitched 270 innings in 2014 (excluding spring training)
  • Pitched 1113.2 innings (regular season, minor leagues, and postseason) since the start of 2010
  • May throw a lot of sliders* which correlates to increased injury risk
  • Giants offense could be flimsy next season depending on offseason moves (i.e. run support is in question)

*BrooksBaseball classifies it as a cutter, which I believe to be correct. However, depending on how a cutter is thrown, it could theoretically have a similar effect as an injury indicator. That is my supposition as somebody who has spent a lot of time working with cutters and is not supported by research. I find it somewhat concerning that Bumgarner’s cutter is over 4 mph slower than his fastball. That tells me it’s somewhere between a slider and a cutter. 

In summary, we have an excellent, durable pitcher who has piled up a few important injury indicators. Keep in mind, he’s entering his age 25 season. So, how do you price this October phenom? Feel free to answer with a specific number or describe in general terms how various parts of his profile will affect your valuation.





 

You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

24 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Perpetually Cynical Mets Fan
11 years ago

I’d be happy paying anything under $25 for him–he’s no Kershaw, but he’s clearly a top-tier fantasy starter. That said, I expect that, in most leagues, someone will overreact to his postseason, and pay more than that.

0