Fantasy Implications of the 2015 Rule 5 Draft

Yesterday included one of my favorite activities of the offseason – the Rule 5 draft. If you’re not familiar with it, the Rule 5 draft is when teams have a chance to select players from rival franchises. Here are the main rules:

• Any player on the 40-man roster is protected
• Players signed at age 19 or older are protected for four seasons
• Players signed at age 18 or older are protected for five seasons

If none of those conditions apply to a player, then he may be selected in the draft. Draft picks cost $50K and the drafting team must keep a player on the major league roster for the entire season in order to retain him. Injured players must spend at least 90 active days on the roster.

If a team decides not to fulfill these conditions, the former club can reacquire the player for $25K. Sometimes, the team refuses to pay the fee, as was the case when the Phillies selected Shane Victorino from the Dodgers. There is also a minor league portion of the draft with slightly different rules and requirements.

Dan Uggla, Johan Santana, and Roberto Clemente are among the most recognizable Rule 5 success stories.

Entering 2014, everybody – and I do mean everybody – was calling the Rule 5 draft obsolete. “You can’t find real talent in the Rule 5,” said all of the people. Then a magical thing happened. Teams picked a total of 14 players. Ten (with an 11th possible) were kept. Included were regulars Odubel Herrera and Delino DeShields.

Teams have adapted to the draft. Rather than targeting the best prospects available, many of whom simply can’t contribute in the majors yet, they’ve shifted to taking the most ready prospects. Seems obvious, huh?

In the 2016 Hardball Times Annual (available on Amazon), Jeff Zimmerman takes a look at how scouts grade the typical Rule 5 pick. Generally speaking, we’re looking at players with 45 or 50 grade tools who are maximizing their limited skills.

And now…

The Players

Phillies Acquire:

1. Tyler Goeddel – OF – TAM (first overall)
2. Daniel Stumpf – LHP – KAN (12th overall)

As the worst team in baseball, the Phillies held the first pick, and they ultimately made two selections. Even after acquiring Peter Bourjos on a waiver claim, it was clear that Philadelphia had a starting outfield job up for grabs. Presently, the Phillies outfield consists of Herrera, Aaron Altherr, Cody Asche, and Bourjos.

Much as the club did with Herrera, the Phillies will give Goeddel, 23, a chance to claim a starting role. The former Ray has really come into his own over the last couple seasons. He developed some power in Double-A, hitting 12 home runs in 533 plate appearances.

For fantasy owners, his best attribute is his speed. He’s swiped at least 20 bases in all four of his minor league campaigns. He’s also likely to provide above average defense in the real world, although he may still need time to adjust to the outfield. The Rays converted him from third base just last year.

The double-jump from Double-A to the majors is a tough one, and Goeddel’s solid plate discipline (9 percent walk rate, 18 percent strikeout rate) will likely suffer as a result. If the defense is a plus, as I expect, he’ll have an opportunity to play regularly. That should at least allow his nascent power and speed to shine through. Likely to have third base eligibility, he’ll make a good streaming option for most fantasy owners. Deep league owners may even want to try a late-round pick on him.

The Phillies also picked a solid LOOGY, Stumpf. In the minors, he was actually used in a multi-inning role. That suggests his stuff might work against right-handed hitters too. We’ll see. I mention Stumpf only because the current Phillies bullpen is ridiculously thin. David Hernandez is the closer du jour. I expect Philadelphia to improve the late innings with an addition of Tyler Clippard or a similarly talented “closer.”

Padres Acquire:

Luis Perdomo – RHP – STL (fourth overall, acquired from Rockies)
Jabari Blash – OF – SEA (sixth overall, acquired from A’s)
Josh Martin – RHP – CLE (seventh overall)
Blake Smith – RHP – CWS (15th overall)

The Padres came away with the biggest haul, trading for two of the top six picks. Due to the roster rules, it’s almost certain that the Padres will have to offer some of these guys back to their original clubs. It’s hard to keep four unestablished players on a major league roster.

Perdomo and Blash are by far their most fascinating acquisitions. I considered Blash to be a candidate for the first overall pick. Blash is entering his age 26 season, but that’s deceptive. He’ll turn 27 in early July. He was one of the top minor league home run producers with 32 blasts split between Double- and Triple-A.

Blash is stuck behind Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Jon Jay, and Melvin Upton. He’s said to be the type of player who needs everyday action to stay consistent. I assume he’s a fallback plan in the event the Padres find a suitor for Kemp. If he’s playing regularly, he could be a streaming option for power.

Perdomo is said to have some of the best command in the Rule 5 draft. He’s a power pitcher with a 95 mph fastball that can touch 97 mph. Perdomo may have a future as a starter, but he’s never played above High-A. He’ll be given an immediate opportunity to thrive in a major league bullpen. He has the necessary raw stuff. Perdomo could become a regular setup man by midseason.

I had difficulty accessing complete scouting reports on Martin and Smith. Their minor league numbers certainly pass the smell test. I imagine the club will ultimately hang onto no more than one of their Rule 5 pitchers. Blash will compete for the fifth outfielder job.

Reds Acquire:

Jake Cave – OF – NYY (second overall)
Christopher O’Grady – LHP – LAA (13th overall)

Cave used to be described as a poor man’s Jacoby Ellsbury, but injuries have sapped his speed. Cave should be a solid fourth outfielder who can cover all three outfield positions. With the Reds mangled roster, he may work his way into regular playing time. Don’t expect power – even at Great American Ball Park. However, he could swipe 20 bags in a full season.

Braves Acquire:

Evan Rutckyj – LHP – NYY (third overall)

One of my favorite features on Baseball Reference is that they tell you how to say a player’s name. Not so with Rutckyj (apparently, it’s ROOT-ski). He’s a big strikeout lefty who seemingly discovered command last season. I assume he’ll be used as a LOOGY, but he might have a higher ceiling. Holds are possible in that shaky Braves pen.

Orioles Acquire:

Joey Rickard – OF – TAM (eighth overall)

Rickard is a contact hitter with decent plate discipline and speed. I don’t see how he’d find a regular role in Baltimore, but he could be non-terrible if he did. He may become a streaming option down the road.

Angles Acquire:

Deolis Guerra – RHP – PIT (ninth overall)
Ji-man Choi – 1B – BAL (16th overall)

The Angels took a different approach, targeting unprotected, recent minor league free agents they missed out on signing. You may recall Guerra, the former Dodgers closer top prospect dealt in the Johan Santa(na) trade. Pay no further attention.

Choi is at least somewhat interesting. He’s had trouble staying on the field, but he hits well when he plays. While he has some power, it’s not great for a 1B/DH profile. However, his plate discipline is above average. Steamer projects a 99 wRC+. Choi is stuck behind Albert Pujols and C.J. Cron. He could be stream-worthy later in the year.

Parting Thoughts

That wasn’t everybody, but those are the guys I can see having a fantasy impact. All told, teams selected a total of 16 players. I suppose Colin Walsh may work his way into regular action with the rebuilding Brewers. The most interesting player to not be selected was Balbino Fuenmayor.