Fan Projections Battle: Duda vs. Smoak
First base is the most productive position in fantasy, whether you prefer traditional 5×5 scoring or the linear weights points scoring in ottoneu leagues. Late round first basemen like the two fellas we’re going to talk about today figure to be as productive as many top middle infielders in the power and run production departments, though they’ll probably lag in batting average and almost certainly will in stolen bases. Value is value though.
Lucas Duda of the Mets and Justin Smoak of the Mariners come from very, very different backgrounds. Duda was an unheralded seventh round pick who never appeared on any kind of top prospect list and had to prove himself each step of the way in the minors. Smoak was the eleventh overall pick in the draft and twice considered one of the 25 best prospects in the game by Baseball America before being the headliner in a trade package for an elite, ace-level pitcher. Despite those differences, they’re expected to produce almost the exact same fantasy value next year according to our Fan Projections…
| PA | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB | Ottoneu Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Duda | 500 | .280 | 21 | 85 | 81 | 1 | 839.4 |
| Justin Smoak | 590 | .263 | 22 | 90 | 86 | 1 | 842.3 |
The two players also have similar minor league track records: .283 AVG (.325 BABIP) with a .175 ISO and a 17.1 K% for the 25-year-old Smoak compared to a .286 AVG (.340 BABIP) with a .187 ISO and a 19.3 K% for the 26-year-old Duda. They did have very different seasons in 2011, however.
The Mets called Duda up at midseason, then watched him finish strong (292/.370/.482 with ten homers in 347 PA) and force his way into the middle of their lineup. Smoak started well (.264/.366/.488 with a dozen homers in his first 284 PA) for Seattle, but he struggled down the stretch in part due to injuries. Duda wins the 2011 production race no questions asked, but there’s no guarantee he’ll do it again in 2012.
For one, Smoak is healthy. He missed time last year with a thumb issue and then had his nose broken when a ground ball took a weird hop. His father also passed away in April. As a switch-hitter, Smoak is never at the platoon disadvantage, though Safeco Field will smother his production from the right side. The lineup around him is improving but is still below average, which will suppress those all-important runs scored and driven in totals.
Duda is a left-handed bat with a platoon split, and that can be problematic in a division that features Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez, Mark Buehrle, Ross Detwiler, John Lannan (for the time being) and others. CitiField was unkind to all batters but particularly lefties during its first three years of its existence, however the walls came in some this winter and it remains to be seen how the place will play going forward. The Mets had an average offense last season and then lost Jose Reyes over the winter, but Duda’s supporting cast figures to be better than Smoak’s.
If you’re looking at these two players in terms of pure upside, Smoak is the easy choice. I can’t imagine there are many people that expect Duda to repeat his 2011 showing over a full season and I suppose there’s a chance he’s already maxed out, but I don’t think that’s the case. The two players are expected to produce at similar rates next season based on the data we collect here, and frankly I think it’s a coin flip as well.
Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.
Not that I put much stock into the counting stat projections, but 1 extra HR and 5 extra R/RBI aren’t worth 17 points in AVG… it’ll likely be a bigger gap between their AVG too, Duda is the far superior fantasy play in 2012
I noticed that difference, too. Could the reason be that Duda’s BA is only weighted by the AB’s that will come with 500 PA’s compared to Smoak’s 590? That’s the only thing I could think of.