Elijah’s Breakout Prophecy

by
November 9, 2008

While it’s unknown whether or not he can raise the dead entity that is the Washington Nationals franchise, this much is certain: outfielder Elijah Dukes is one heck of a baseball player.

A former Tampa Bay (still Devil at that time) Ray and a Tampa native, Dukes was selected by the Rays in the third round of the 2002 amateur entry draft. A breathtaking combination of size (6-1, 240) speed and power, Dukes compiled an impressive minor league resume, batting a combined .280/.369/.448. However, a number of run-ins with members of the organization and the law led the Rays to grow weary of Dukes. Tampa Bay swapped Dukes to the Nationals for minor league lefty Glenn Gibson last winter.

In his first year in D.C., Dukes showed why the Nationals were willing to give him a chance:

276 AB, .264/.386/.478, 15.3BB%, 28.6K%, .214 ISO, 13 HR

Dukes displayed the wide array of skills that made him a top prospect, showing excellent patience and power while also swiping 13 bags. His plate discipline is pretty refined for a guy who’s just 24, as he swung at just 20.34% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. The strikeout rate was very high and figures to remain so in the future (his contact percentage was 70.38% and his minor league K% was 24.4), but Dukes possesses the secondary skills (walks and power) to compensate for a batting average in the .250-.260 range. Great on-base skills, power and 10-20 steals to boot? That’s a pretty valuable player.

From a pure baseball standpoint, Elijah Dukes is one of the most talented young players in the major leagues. Few possess his blend of power, strike-zone judgment and athleticism. I’m not going to speak on his personal issues, other than to say that he’s had more than a few problems over the years; saying anything more would just be baseless speculation on my part. But if he remains on the field and out of trouble, Dukes has the skills to establish himself as a breakout star in 2009.

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A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.

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