Edinson Volquez: Value Pick

Sporting a triangular scar on the back of his elbow, Edinson Volquez returned to a major league mound last July less than a year after he underwent Tommy John surgery. The righty once swapped from Texas to Cincinnati for Josh Hamilton went on to toss 62.2 regular-season frames, whiffing and walking scores of hitters while also inducing grounders like never before. Drafting Volquez carries risk — the 27-year-old’s innings will be watched, and control has never been his strong suit — but a modest drop in free passes mixed with stellar K and ground ball rates should make Volquez one of the better value picks on draft day.

Volquez’s post-surgery stuff was top-shelf. He got swinging strikes 13 percent of the time, best among starting pitchers throwing at least 60 innings and running circles around the 8.5 percent MLB average. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Volquez boasted excellent whiff rates with his fastball (averaging between 93-94 MPH), changeup and curveball:

Fastball: 9 Whiff% (5-6% MLB average)
Changeup: 24.4 Whiff% (12.6% MLB average)
Curveball: 11.8 Whiff% (11.6% MLB average)

Volquez also got plenty of earth scorchers: his ground ball rate was 53.9 percent, far above the 44.5 percent clip he managed in the majors prior to 2010. Compared to past years, Volquez threw more curveballs in place of changeups. That breaking ball was beaten into the ground often: Volquez had a 70 percent GB% with his curve (49% MLB average). His fastball (50.5 GB%, 42% MLB average) also helped him wage a ground assault, while his change was league average with a 50 GB%.

Considering that Great American Ballpark punishes fly ball pitchers, inflating home run production 20 percent for lefty hitters compared to a neutral stadium and 33 percent for righty batters, Volquez’s uptick in grounders is a positive. And the sample size is large enough that we can put some stock in the worm burning increase — changes in ground ball rate become reliable rather quickly, after about 150 batters faced (Volquez faced 275 last season). Also helping matters is a strong Cincy infield. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen are quality defenders, and the rangy Paul Janish looks like the favorite for shortstop starts over Edgar Renteria.

Of course, Volquez’s return wasn’t all roses. Always control-challenged (his career MLB walk rate is near 4.7 per nine), Volquez issued over five free passes per nine innings pitched. He located just 39.7 percent of his pitches within the strike zone, third-lowest among starters with 60+ IP and well below the 46.5 percent MLB average. As TexasLeaguers.com shows, only Volquez’s curve got strikes at an above-average clip:

Fastball: 59.7 Strike% (60-64% MLB average)
Changeup: 59.5 Strike% (60-61% MLB average)
Curveball 58.8 Strike% (58% MLB average)

Volquez isn’t likely to take the bump in 2011 and start showing exquisite control. But it’s not uncommon for post-TJ pitchers to struggle locating their pitches initially as they try to regain proprioception (knowing where the body is in space) and then improve their control the further out they get from surgery. Volquez’s month-by-month splits paint the picture of a pitcher gradually improving his location:

July: 35.5 Zone%
August: 37.0 Zone%
September/October: 45.6 Zone%

For 2011, two of the three big projection systems predict a sub-four ERA for Volquez:

ZiPS: 108 IP, 9.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.66 ERA
PECOTA: 134 IP, 8.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 3.93 ERA
Oliver: 106 IP, 8.7 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.14 ERA

Drafting Edinson Volquez is a gamble. He’s going to walk people. And he’s not a sure bet to log a full starter’s workload, given that 2011 will be his first full year back from Tommy John and that the Reds have seven or eight legitimate rotation options. But he’s not going to cost a prime pick (MockDraftCentral has his ADP at #74 among starters and #262 overall), and he’s the sort of upside play who can be the difference between winning and losing a league title. Take a chance on Edinson — his punch outs and grounders will make you glad you did.