Draft Order: The Third Basemen

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here.

As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Alex Rodriguez, New York AL (.405)
2. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay (.380)
3. David Wright, New York NL (.368)

The top two players on this list are probably no-brainers. Rodriguez is coming off of an injury-delayed season but there is no reason to expect him to have any kind of setbacks related to his hip. I would certainly expect a return to his .300 batting average, as well as 35-40 homers. If healthy, a total surpassing 100 RBI is almost a given when you look at the lineup around him.Toss in 100 runs scored and 15 steals for good measure. And if you’re playing in an on-base league, don’t be surprised if he walks 100+ times given his improvements in that area last season (15.0% walk rate).

Longoria has played two (mostly) full seasons in the Majors and he has produced ISO rates of .259 and .245, which just goes to show that the kid has massive power. He’s also good for 100+ runs and RBI totals. Where he loses a step to A-Rod (in traditional leagues) is in the stolen base department and the batting average. Longoria, though, is still just 24 – 10 full years younger than Rodriguez.

Wright had a pretty bad season in ’09; his wOBA drop from .420 in 2008 to .397 to .368 in ’09. On the plus side, he’s entering his age-27 season so we can hope for an improvement… The biggest head-scratcher is the sudden drop in power, which many blamed on the stadium but he also did not hit bombs on the road (five homers, .144 ISO). He still has a good shot at being a 20-20 third baseman, but he may struggle to hit .300 again; his BABIP was .394 in ’09, which helped him hit .307 despite a huge jump in strikeout rate from 18.8 to 26.2%. Hopefully the addition of Jason Bay will help, as well as a return to form by both Jose Reyes and (eventually) Carlos Beltran.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington (.377)
5. Mark Reynolds, Arizona (.381)
6. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco (.396)
7. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago NL (.392)
8. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.358)

You could argue for Zimmerman over Wright given the ’09 season but I like the Mets lineup better than that of the Nats – which will impact run and RBI totals. As well, Zimmerman is likely to hit for a similar average but he won’t nab 15-20 steals. The nice thing about fantasy baseball is that, in most leagues, you can enjoy Reynold’s 35-40 homers and 15-20 steals without putting up with his 200 strikeouts. On the down side, he’s probably going to hit about .240 thanks to his 38% strikeout rate.

This winter, a lot has been made about Sandoval’s switch in approach and weight-loss program… Honestly that worries me a bit. I would toss him into one of those “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” categories. Too often, an unorthodox player gets screwed up when he tries to appease too many people. Hopefully I’m wrong, though, and he goes out again and hits .330 with 20+ homers. I can also hope that the addition of free agents Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff will improve the lineup, but I have a feeling their impacts will be minimal. Still just 31, it feels like Ramirez has been around forever. Injuries limited him to just 82 games in ’09 but he almost tied his career-high batting average with a mark of .317. On the down side, his ISO rate dropped below .229 for the first time in five years.

After scoring one of the top free agent contracts in the winter of 2009-10, Figgins stands to be a little over-hyped in fantasy drafts. I’m also a little concerned that he’s eventually going to become Luis Castillo all over again as an aging speedster who loses his wheels half way through his contact (although really Castillo had lost them BEFORE the ridiculous contract). Figgins is still stealing 30+ bases each season but we have seen a decrease in his success rates over the past three seasons. He’s also topped a .300 batting average just once in his career and that was thanks to a .391 BABIP. Hopefully you’re getting enough power elsewhere in your fantasy lineup because you’re not going to get it from Figgins (.096 ISO) in 2010.

The Leftovers:
9. Michael Young, Texas (.385)
10. Gordon Beckham, Chicago AL (.351)
11. Chipper Jones, Atlanta (.354)
12. Casey Blake, Los Angeles NL (.354)
13. Adrian Beltre, Boston (.305)
14. Mark DeRosa, San Francisco (.327)
15. Alex Gordon, Kansas City (.321)

Young is no longer a lock for 200+ hits in a season but he’s still good for a .300 average and he increased his power output in ’09. Beckham is expected to play second base for Chicago in ’09 but he spent most of his time at the hot corner last season so he should open the year in many leagues as third-base eligible. It would be nice to see the club give him time at both positions to help his fantasy value, but it’s probably not going to happen.

Jones topped 140 games played for the first time in six seasons back in ’09 so durability is definitely not his strong suit. His offense is also slipping so don’t expect him to hit 25+ homers or bat above .300. Beltre could see some improvement in his offensive numbers thanks to his new home park (and lineup). With that said, his OPS was .683 in ’09. Ouch.

As long as Blake has company in the form of Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, he should continue to see some good pitches. However, he’s turning 37 this year so regression is coming… DeRosa is a nice little player because he offers some offense, as well as versatility. I wouldn’t rely on the 35-year-old for a full-time job in your lineup, though. Gordon is in need of a bounce-back year but he’s already going to be behind the eight-ball thanks to a broken thumb suffered recently.

Up Next: The Shortstops