Draft Order: The First Basemen

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here.

As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis (.449 wOBA)
2. Mark Teixeira, New York AL (.402 wOBA)
3. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee (.420 wOBA)

A full season of Matt Holliday’s presence in the lineup could have a profound effect on Pujols, although it’s hard to imagine him being any more productive. The big first baseman even gave fantasy owners an added bonus in ’09 by stealing 16 bases, so it would be great to receive double-digit steals again… but don’t count on it. With Pujols, you know you’re getting a .300 average, 35+ homers, as well as 100+ RBIs and runs. If you play in an on-base league, he’ll even give you more than 100 walks.

Teixeira certainly benefits from a powerful lineup and new Yankee Stadium won’t hurt his power numbers. Despite the big year in ’09, he’s still a step behind the big man in St. Louis. If Alex Rodriguez can have a big (and fully healthy) year, though, and Curtis Granderson takes to pinstripes as expected, then Teixeira will continue to have plenty of protection in the lineup.

Fielder doesn’t have quite the protection that Tex has, but he had a massive season in ’09 despite getting off to a slow start in April (.354 wOBA). He just missed hitting .300 while slamming 46 homers and driving in 141 runs (which tied him with Ryan Howard for tops in the Majors). Fielder will continue to benefit from having Ryan Braun in the lineup and the speedy Alcides Escobar should do a good job of getting into scoring position with 30+ stolen base ability. A return to health by Rickie Weeks could also have a positive impact on the lineup.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit (.402 wOBA)
5. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia (.393 wOBA)
6. Joey Votto, Cincinnati (.418 wOBA)
7. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego (.402 wOBA)
8. Kevin Youkilis, Boston (.413 wOBA)
9. Justin Morneau, Minnesota (.371 wOBA)

With two rookies (Austin Jackson, Scott Sizemore) projected to start in the lineup, as well as a declining Magglio Ordonez, Cabrera was surrounded by a lot of question marks entering spring training in 2010. However, the late addition of Johnny Damon should have a nice effect on the lineup, as well as Cabrera’s numbers… unless age suddenly catches up to the former Yankee. Howard can match Fielder in homers and runs batted in, but he’s not going to hit for a high average and his walk and strikeout rates can take a toll depending on what type of league you’re playing in (such as an on-base league, or one that penalizes for strikeouts). On the plus side, he receives plenty of protection in a lineup that also features the likes of Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, and Jayson Werth.

Both Votto and Morneau are young-ish first basemen that missed some time in ’09. Even so, Votto had a career year and he produced a triple-slash line of .322/.414/.567. A full, healthy season could produce 100 runs and RBIs (and possibly 30 homers), which could vault him into elite status. A breakout year by Jay Bruce could also help. Morneau posted his second highest ISO ever (.242) and still drove in 100 runs despite playing in just 135 games. The presence of Joe Mauer in the lineup helps to take some of the pressure off of the Canadian slugger.

Gonzalez’ fantasy value will likely always be hindered by his home park, as long as he continues to play for the Padres. A move to a team like the Red Sox or White Sox, though, would shoot him up the charts. Despite his surroundings (and modest lineup support), Gonzalez still produced excellent numbers in ’09. He slugged 40 homers for the first time while his walk rate skyrocketed to 17.5%. On the downside, his .407 OBP was not enough to help him score more than 100 runs thanks to the lineup around him (He crossed the plate just 90 times). He also fell one short of the 100 RBI mark. Youkilis had a second straight .300+ average, 27+ homer season. He also scored 99 runs and drove in 94. A full season from Victor Martinez, as well as the presence of Marco Scutaro at the top of the order, will be nice but the lineup is not as scary as it used to be.

The Leftovers:
10. Lance Berkman, Houston (.386 wOBA)
11. Kendry Morales, Los Angeles AL (.382 wOBA)
12. Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay (.374 wOBA)
13. Derrek Lee, Chicago NL (.412 wOBA)
14. Adam Dunn, Washington (.394 wOBA)
15. Todd Helton, Colorado (.392 wOBA)

Here we have some first basemen that are starting to show some gray around the edges in Berkman (age 34), Lee (34) and Helton (36). With that said, these players still have some pop in their bats. Berkman won’t have much offensive help from his fellow Astros infielders in 2010, so he’ll have to rely on the likes of Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence to help pad his numbers. Lee, coming off of the second-highest wOBA of his career, will look to keep the momentum going strong. Helton doesn’t provide the power numbers like he used to, but he’s a smart, .300 hitter who is surrounded by a talented lineup that should be even better in 2010.

Pena has produced 30+ homers and 100+ RBI for three straight seasons but his average has also plummeted from .282 to .247 to .227. You have to be a little concerned with the rising strikeout numbers, as well. Dunn lacks protection in Washington lineup so he’s probably not going to score 100 or more runs despite 100+ walks. Morales had a breakout ’09 season and he has the potential to have another excellent season but don’t pay too much for what could have been a career year; he’s not among the elite sluggers just yet.

Up Next: The Second Basemen