DFS Strategy: Isolating Projection Quartiles

Last week, I discussed the importance of randomness in DFS, and some strategies one can use to take advantage of the large amount of random variation that occurs in daily fantasy. I’d like to expand further on that topic today by delving deeper into the process of focusing on specific portions of player projection distributions.

Our goal when playing DFS is not just to maximize total expected points for the lineup, but to maximize the chances of outscoring other lineups in the field. This distinction is an important one, because we both want to differentiate our lineups — avoiding high-owned duds and searching for low-owned studs — and focus on projection upside rather than projection means.

A trick that I use to achieve both of these objectives is to isolate the top quartiles of player projection distributions. For example, rather than just looking at each player’s average projection, I will look at only the top 25% of a player potential results, and consequently, the effect that isolating performance in this way has on the player’s teammates and opponents. As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, SaberSim allows us to do this using the results of thousands of simulations of each game. This action of isolating only a portion of simulated games both increases the upside of our lineup by taking full advantage of outlier performances, and allows us to differentiate ourselves from the competition by “boosting” or “fading” players based on projected ownership.

On SaberSim, this action of isolating the top or bottom quartile of player projections is simple using the new Boost and Fade options on the lineup creation page. With a click, I can isolate only the bottom quartile of a high-owned pitcher’s performance. Though this bottom quartile will only occur 25% of the time, the reward of taking advantage of this poor performance can be well worth the risk in large tournaments where a small portion of lineups succeed.

DFS Projections: Batters

The early simulation results have many teams scoring large run totals. There are games at both Coors Field and Great American Ballpark, and the Red Sox offense faces James Shields at home. Furthermore, many of the starting pitchers for today’s slate are back of the rotation pitchers. The fact that Ricky Nolasco possesses the best projected ERA of any starting pitcher demonstrates just how good of a day it’s projected to be for offense.

Top Offenses
1. Diamondbacks (@ COL – Eddie Butler) – 5.79 r/g
2. Red Sox (vs CWS – James Shields) – 5.67 r/g
3. Rockies (vs ARI – Zack Greinke) – 5.33 r/g
4. Tigers (vs SEA – Adrian Sampson) – 5.03 r/g
5. Reds (vs SD – Christian Friedrich) – 4.51 r/g

Top Batters
1. Paul Goldschmidt 12.41 DK; 16.63 FD
2. Carlos Gonzalez 10.41 DK; 13.78 FD
3. Wil Myers 10.41 DK; 13.77 FD
4. Mike Trout 10.37 DK; 13.73 FD
5. Mookie Betts 10.30 DK; 13.40 FD
6. Nolan Arenado 10.12 DK; 13.36 FD
7. Matt Kemp 10.11 DK; 13.37 FD
8. Charlie Blackmon 10.09 DK; 12.95 FD
9. Miguel Cabrera 9.94 DK; 13.11 FD
10. Jake Lamb 9.94 DK; 13.22 FD

DFS Projections: Pitchers

There’s limited potential for big performances from today’s slate of pitchers. For the most part, the projected point totals are fairly low. It should be noted, though, that there are some significant differences between the top ten pitchers by average projection and the top ten pitchers by 95th percentile projection.

Top Pitchers (DraftKings)

Average
1. Jon Lester
2. Matt Harvey
3. Ricky Nolasco
4. Wei-Yin Chen
5. Rick Porcello
6. Tim Lincecum
7. John Lamb
8. Jerad Eickhoff
9. Zack Greinke
10. Jon Niese

95th Percentile
1. Matt Harvey
2. Jon Lester
3. Wei-Yin Chen
4. Ricky Nolasco
5. Rick Porcello
6. Jerad Eickhoff
7. Christian Friedrich
8. John Lamb
9. Zack Greinke
10. Tim Lincecum

Conclusion

There are many ways to create DFS strategies using percentile projections, boosting/fading, conditionals, and more. We will continue to explore more strategies in the coming weeks in order to keep you up to date on the most current DFS cash game and GPP strategies.

Remember to check back for updated projections throughout the day. As teams release official lineups, SaberSim automatically updates accordingly and reruns simulations in order to stay as current as possible. Good luck!