Daily Fantasy Strategy — June 8 — For Draftstreet

In the past week or so, we’ve looked at a couple of different ways to evaluate an opponent from a starting pitcher’s perspective. First, with an offense’s fantasy output as the measure, and then with a rough approximation of a pitcher’s output against an offense.

For today, I had the time to actually pull all of the game logs so far in 2014, allowing me to break down the actual, not implied, production of pitchers against each offense in baseball. Those tables are after the jump, should probably be bookmarked and will probably be updated in this space once a month moving forward.

Right-Handed Starters

Opp	N	AVG	MED	SD	SD1-	SD1+
SDP	50	8.86	9.625	5.80	3.06	14.66
CHC	47	8.32	8.75	5.26	3.07	13.58
ATL	50	8.29	8.125	5.53	2.76	13.82
HOU	42	8.27	7.375	5.45	2.82	13.71
PHI	45	8.03	8	5.81	2.22	13.84
MIA	47	7.76	7	5.25	2.51	13.01
WSN	46	7.67	8.085	5.51	2.16	13.17
CHW	46	7.58	7.5	4.70	2.87	12.28
ARI	50	7.47	7.25	5.28	2.19	12.75
CIN	45	7.46	6.75	5.50	1.97	12.96
BOS	39	7.42	7.25	5.43	1.99	12.84
PIT	55	7.18	7.58	5.78	1.40	12.96
MIN	43	6.89	6.42	5.11	1.79	12.00
NYM	49	6.88	6.5	5.11	1.78	11.99
TEX	45	6.77	7.67	6.23	0.54	13.00
SEA	36	6.45	6.67	5.52	0.93	11.97
NYY	39	6.40	6	5.05	1.35	11.45
LAA	37	6.23	6.33	6.02	0.21	12.24
TBR	44	6.10	6.75	5.22	0.89	11.32
KCR	45	6.09	4.83	5.85	0.24	11.94
MIL	49	6.01	4.83	5.98	0.02	11.99
BAL	45	5.98	6.25	4.98	1.00	10.97
SFG	39	5.95	5	5.33	0.61	11.28
TOR	44	5.89	5.125	5.49	0.41	11.38
STL	47	5.88	5.5	4.55	1.33	10.43
CLE	42	5.41	5	5.13	0.28	10.54
DET	41	5.08	5.58	6.40	-1.32	11.47
COL	43	4.54	5.17	6.87	-2.33	11.42
OAK	43	4.32	4.5	6.50	-2.18	10.82
LAD	48	4.18	4.625	4.81	-0.63	8.99

Yup, the Padres look like a great streaming option with a righty on the hill no matter how you slice it, and despite the Braves’ reputation as a solid team, you’re pretty safe in starting a right-hander against them based on the numbers.

Left-Handed Starters

LAD	15	9.24	9.25	5.09	4.15	14.33
SDP	12	9.05	8.05	5.18	3.87	14.23
PHI	15	8.73	8.45	4.05	4.67	12.78
CIN	15	8.51	8.00	6.05	2.45	14.56
ATL	10	8.50	9.25	6.33	2.16	14.83
TBR	19	8.44	8.75	6.41	2.03	14.84
MIN	17	8.29	7.50	5.70	2.59	13.98
SEA	25	8.07	6.50	6.07	2.00	14.14
CHW	17	8.06	7.50	6.66	1.41	14.72
PIT	6	7.66	7.38	3.88	3.78	11.54
STL	16	7.39	6.00	5.35	2.04	12.74
DET	17	6.42	5.85	7.59	-1.17	14.00
HOU	21	6.36	8.35	5.72	0.64	12.08
KCR	17	6.24	7.00	4.79	1.44	11.03
CLE	20	6.23	7.00	5.44	0.79	11.67
NYY	22	6.20	5.23	5.51	0.69	11.71
NYM	13	6.12	6.25	6.45	-0.33	12.57
WSN	14	5.79	5.30	6.84	-1.05	12.63
MIA	15	5.77	3.60	6.79	-1.02	12.56
BOS	22	5.72	6.93	4.82	0.89	10.54
MIL	14	5.65	6.18	4.98	0.67	10.62
OAK	19	5.43	5.50	7.27	-1.84	12.70
SFG	24	5.40	5.98	5.05	0.35	10.44
ARI	14	5.29	3.05	6.35	-1.06	11.63
LAA	24	5.10	4.85	5.07	0.04	10.17
COL	19	5.07	5.50	4.42	0.66	9.49
BAL	15	5.05	5.95	4.47	0.57	9.52
CHC	12	4.93	4.38	6.11	-1.18	11.04
TOR	19	4.46	3.60	4.92	-0.46	9.38
TEX	17	4.08	5.50	6.91	-2.83	10.99

As it turns out, the Dodgers aren’t all that dangerous against southpaws – we knew that, but the degree to which they appear to be a relatively safe play is shocking (though I’m still not trusting Jorge de la Rosa at Coors today). The Tigers, meanwhile, are the kings of volatility, so pick your lefties carefully against them.

The Daily Five
Jordan Zimmermann – $15,487
We mentioned the Padres complete inability to hit righties, and Zimmermann draws them at Petco Park with roughly a median price tag attached to him. It’s tough not to like that setup for profit – even if you split the difference between Zimmerman’s 6.39 average and the 8.86 points San Diego normally surrenders to righties, you get 7.63 points and about $2,000 per point. That’s conservative.

Chase Anderson – $10,985
This one’s risky business and is predicated on saving money at the low end to afford more high-upside hitters on what should be a good day for offense. Anderson has been solid so far despite some long ball issues, and his strikeout upside is higher than what he’s shown through four outings. The Braves generally oblige against righties. This one’s not for the weak stomached though, I don’t think, but if you pass here you’re looking at a trio of $15K-plus arms.

Indians stack – No, Cleveland hasn’t done all that well against lefties, but most lefties aren’t Joe Saunders, who is terrible despite what his ERA may currently say. The Indians’ four most expensive players today are all lefties, but Michael Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall, in particular, have hit lefties well so far (in a tiny sample for the latter), and Yan Gomes is, I think, better than he’s shown against them so far. It’s perhaps a counter-intuitive stack but there’s a reason this game has the day’s highest over/under and the Indians are favored.
Yan Gomes – $5,164
Michael Brantley – $7,461
Carlos Santana – $5,522
Asdrubal Cabrera – $5,124

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