Daily Fantasy Strategy — July 24 — For Draftstreet

Sunday in this space, we outlined some of the hitters who gain the most and the least in the switch from DraftStreet scoring to DraftKings scoring, where strikeouts no longer hurt a hitter. On Monday, we did the same for pitchers.

If you haven’t yet, by the way, you can transfer your account here.

Today, as a final wrap on the “transition” period, we’re going to look at how scarce total points are in each format, so you can begin to re-calibrate your “dollar per point” perception (though we don’t have comparative data on the relative payout differences between the two). There’s not really a “clean” way to do this, so I’ll all do is compare the total budget and the points earned by hitter/pitcher (I excluded relievers because, while it may be instructive in some ways, they are entirely out of the decision set now).

Does that help all that much? I’m not sure, but if you hadn’t dove in to Kings yet, the difference in the price of a point was surely set to stick out to you. Even with a thinner roster, points are far more abundant, so how you price players needs to change more than just “oh the budget is half.” Further study will be required to find the optimal hitting/pitching spending mix, however, but you’re free to discuss in the comments (at Street I was roughly 60/40 but am still tweaking my Kings strategy).

The Daily Five
Brandon McCarthy – $7,200
Is a McCarthy home start insane? Possibly, but look at how he’s set up, even with the tough park – he draws the banged-up Texas Rangers, who ranks 24th in baseball in wOBA against righties and 27th in wOBA over the past 30 days. Vegas has set a high over-under of nine, but the Yankees are also strong favorites thanks to Mr. Unwritten toeing the rubber for the visiting side. This is not a “safe” play, but with an improved strikeout rate and ground ball rate against a terrible offense, I’m rolling the dice.

Edwin Jackson – $5,800
I would literally start myself for $5,000 against the Padres offense at this point. Jackson is Jackson (decent strikeouts, constant ERA-FIP gap, etc), but this is a .276 wOBA against righties, 24 percent below league average when controlling for the Petco Park factor (and this game is at Wrigley). Here’s a full list of Padres more than 10 percent better than league average against righties: Seth Smith. I don’t really think the Padres angle needs to be explained anymore.

Yankees stack – Here’s an unwritten rule for Colby Lewis: Don’t play a fly ball right-handed pitcher at Yankee Stadium. No, Lewis isn’t nearly as bad as his 6.37 ERA would indicate (his FIP is 4.10), but he gives up plenty of balls in the air and doesn’t miss enough bats to make up for it.
Brian McCann – $3,700 (don’t care if he’s comfortable, his price is so depressed it’s worth it)
Brett Gardner – $4,600 (.184 ISO against righties and .182 ISO at home)
Carlos Beltran – $4,300 (still hitting righties fine and hitting at Yankee Stadium)
Brian Roberts – $3,500 (this one may seem weird but he has a high fly ball rate against righties and has, unlike everyone else, not yet benefited from the friendly confines)

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