Daily Fantasy Strategy — April 6 — For Draftstreet

Ahh, the first true Sunday of the baseball season. Is there anything better than a lazy Sunday with 15 games? Sure, it’d be nice if they were staggered a little better (there are only two 4 p.m. starts), but your day from lunch to dinner should be pretty damn sweet.

It’ll be extra sweet if you can make a few ducats, so let’s take a look at the daily fantasy situation, where we’re projected to go rainout-free with sunshine all around the league. It’s like the sky is one big Munenori Kawasaki smile today.

So you probably want some advice instead of just weather ramblings and baseball rainbows.

Well, instead of just looking at the sky, be sure to check the projected temperature at first pitch. Baseball’s run-scoring environment is heavily impacted by temperature, such that games only average about 4.2 runs up until temperatures top 65 degrees, after which it’s a steady rise to about 5.2 runs at 100 degrees.

Boston has the most obvious wind conditions today, too, with a strong wind blowing to right field. It’s probably worth avoiding righty Yovani Gallardo in that case, though it wasn’t a particularly strong match-up anyway.

The Daily Five
Taylor Jordan – $7,130
The cheapest starting pitcher on the board, Jordan has some nice sleeper potential entering the season as the Nationals number-five starter. The Braves aren’t necessarily an easy out – they posted a 104 wRC+ against righties as a team last season – but they’re a heavy strikeout team, hopefully negating some of Jordan’s low-strikeout downside. He only projects to strike out about six per nine, but his ability to generate groundballs makes him a solid play given the price.
Update: On the other side of the hill, Alex Wood isn’t a bad play either, especially with Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman sitting.

Cardinals Stack
It’s Edinson Volquez on the bump for the Buccos, and he projects to have a wOBA against of about a million. In reality, Volquez’ peripherals suggest he’s due for some regression from last season, but he rarely passes the eye test and has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball in two of the last three seasons. Last year, lefties posted a .365 wOBA against him, and that mark was .379 in 2011, before a better 2012 season. Among others, two names in particular stand out:
Kolten Wong – $5,386
Matt Admas – $6,864
Matt Carpenter – $6,695

Mets Stack
No seriously, the Mets. The Reds will start Alfredo Simon, who has been solid in relief for two years now but hasn’t started a game at any level since 2011. When he did, he wasn’t particularly effective, allowing a .363 wOBA over 108.1 career innings. Even as a reliever, he wasn’t particularly tough on lefties, and the bet here is that he struggles with them as a starter. Again, here are two names to include in your stack:
Ike Davis – $6,377 – why the hell not, right? The grand slam has to turn things around!
Curtis Granderson – $6,401

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