Daily Fantasy Strategy – 9/8 – For Draftstreet
Yesterday we talked about trying to avoid our early season mental anchors for teams, refreshing the leaderboards for team batting against righties and lefties.
Keeping with the trend of avoiding anchoring, it’s prudent to examine changes in team performance from one half to the other. While half-splits are arbitrary endpoints and not statistically significant ones, they’re also ones that are calculated for us.
While they may not tell the whole story, they at least give us some idea of teams that have gotten better (acquisition, strong call up, players improving) or gotten worse (traded player, injuries, players declining). Let’s have a look.
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| 1H | 2H | Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ôªø”Team” | BB% | K% | wOBA | BB% | K% | wOBA | BB% | K% | wOBA |
| Nationals | 7.60% | 21.00% | 0.301 | 7.90% | 18.10% | 0.327 | 0.30% | -2.90% | 0.026 |
| Astros | 7.00% | 25.30% | 0.294 | 7.20% | 25.40% | 0.311 | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.017 |
| Athletics | 9.60% | 19.60% | 0.316 | 8.50% | 18.50% | 0.332 | -1.10% | -1.10% | 0.016 |
| Dodgers | 7.90% | 18.10% | 0.312 | 7.40% | 19.10% | 0.327 | -0.50% | 1.00% | 0.015 |
| Pirates | 7.40% | 22.10% | 0.306 | 8.10% | 22.00% | 0.321 | 0.70% | -0.10% | 0.015 |
| Yankees | 7.80% | 19.60% | 0.301 | 8.10% | 19.50% | 0.314 | 0.30% | -0.10% | 0.013 |
| Royals | 6.90% | 17.20% | 0.301 | 7.00% | 15.50% | 0.311 | 0.10% | -1.70% | 0.010 |
| Mets | 8.20% | 22.30% | 0.299 | 8.50% | 21.70% | 0.308 | 0.30% | -0.60% | 0.009 |
| Diamondbacks | 8.00% | 18.50% | 0.31 | 8.70% | 17.40% | 0.318 | 0.70% | -1.10% | 0.008 |
| Tigers | 9.00% | 17.30% | 0.343 | 7.60% | 15.80% | 0.351 | -1.40% | -1.50% | 0.008 |
| Red Sox | 9.40% | 20.60% | 0.345 | 8.90% | 19.70% | 0.349 | -0.50% | -0.90% | 0.004 |
| Reds | 9.10% | 19.90% | 0.316 | 9.40% | 20.30% | 0.32 | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.004 |
| Rangers | 7.60% | 17.30% | 0.324 | 7.60% | 15.80% | 0.327 | 0.00% | -1.50% | 0.003 |
| Brewers | 6.20% | 19.30% | 0.312 | 7.30% | 20.00% | 0.312 | 1.10% | 0.70% | 0.000 |
| Padres | 7.70% | 20.90% | 0.304 | 7.20% | 20.60% | 0.304 | -0.50% | -0.30% | 0.000 |
| Blue Jays | 8.10% | 18.80% | 0.321 | 9.00% | 16.40% | 0.319 | 0.90% | -2.40% | -0.002 |
| Marlins | 6.70% | 18.90% | 0.28 | 7.90% | 21.80% | 0.277 | 1.20% | 2.90% | -0.003 |
| White Sox | 6.60% | 20.30% | 0.3 | 6.80% | 17.20% | 0.297 | 0.20% | -3.10% | -0.003 |
| Twins | 8.60% | 21.00% | 0.311 | 8.80% | 25.00% | 0.307 | 0.20% | 4.00% | -0.004 |
| Cubs | 6.80% | 19.20% | 0.31 | 8.50% | 21.60% | 0.302 | 1.70% | 2.40% | -0.008 |
| Mariners | 8.10% | 21.80% | 0.312 | 8.50% | 21.50% | 0.304 | 0.40% | -0.30% | -0.008 |
| Braves | 9.10% | 22.80% | 0.323 | 8.00% | 21.90% | 0.314 | -1.10% | -0.90% | -0.009 |
| Rockies | 7.40% | 19.80% | 0.326 | 6.20% | 19.30% | 0.317 | -1.20% | -0.50% | -0.009 |
| Orioles | 6.40% | 18.40% | 0.33 | 7.20% | 17.60% | 0.32 | 0.80% | -0.80% | -0.010 |
| Rays | 9.00% | 18.20% | 0.328 | 10.10% | 19.50% | 0.318 | 1.10% | 1.30% | -0.010 |
| Angels | 8.10% | 18.20% | 0.329 | 9.00% | 21.00% | 0.318 | 0.90% | 2.80% | -0.011 |
| Giants | 7.10% | 17.40% | 0.309 | 7.50% | 16.80% | 0.297 | 0.40% | -0.60% | -0.012 |
| Indians | 9.20% | 21.60% | 0.328 | 9.00% | 19.80% | 0.308 | -0.20% | -1.80% | -0.020 |
| Cardinals | 7.60% | 17.60% | 0.33 | 7.60% | 18.60% | 0.303 | 0.00% | 1.00% | -0.027 |
| Phillies | 6.70% | 19.60% | 0.311 | 7.00% | 20.80% | 0.283 | 0.30% | 1.20% | -0.028 |
Not surprisingly, the changes aren’t dramatic. The Nationals have a big uptick in overall offense while the Cardinals and Phillies have taken a step back. The Twins have had their K-rate surge while the White Sox have gotten a bat on the ball more, and almost nobody had a significant change in walk rate. Much ado about nothing? Perhaps, but remember we’re just trying to realign our mental anchors here.
The Daily Five
Chad Bettis – $4,062
It’s really difficult not to take a starter at a reliever’s price, simply because the bar to “profit” is so low. At $4k, you only need about two points from Bettis to walk away pleased. While he’s been bad through seven starts, he has a strong track record of piling up strikeouts and avoiding walks in the minors, two things he hasn’t been able to do yet with Colorado. What’s ailed him as a concern for a larger article, but for now I’m willing to roll the dice – in Petco against one of the league’s worst offenses against righties, no less – that Bettis can put together a capable start.
Michael Wacha – $6,212
Once again, we’ve got a pitcher with the bar set so low for profit it’s tough not to jump on. Combining these two for $10k leaves you ample money to chase big bats or an ace as your third SP. In this case, Wacha is also very good, with the price likely lowered due to the team facing the Pirates. The Pirates, however, aren’t all that intimidating against righties, with a below-average .308 wOBA and a well above-averaged 21.7% strikeout rate. It’s certainly not an easy turn, especially with the additions the Pirates have made that are hardly accounted for in those rates, but at $6k you just need Wacha to survive a few winnings and get a few strikeouts.
Jason Kubel – $4,560
Don’t watch this unless you’ve got five hours to spare because it’s Daisuke Matsuzaka. That means long waits, slow pace, and plenty of fantasy potential for the Indians lineup. Have your pick, really, because Matsuzaka has been downright terrible. Among others, I’m going to give the Indians’ cheap new toy in Kubel a spin.
Nick Markakis – $6,002
Andre Rienzo has been lit up through seven major league starts and while he wasn’t nearly this bad with the longball in the minors, he wasn’t exactly spectacular down there either (ERA of 4.06 in 20 Triple-A starts this year). While he figures it out, you’re free to stack Orioles against him. I’ve gone with Markakis here which, while maybe not sound given his numbers, is again very cheap. It’s also a bit of a “gut” play like David Freese yesterday, in that he objectively looks better right now than his results would suggest.
Yoenis Cespedes – $6,882
Paul Clemens has been terrible as a reliever in the majors and as a starter at Triple-A. Let’s just say I’m less than confident in him starting at the major league level. Why Cespedes? Other than being exhausted of “bargain” Seth Smith to come around, the Cuban has five multi-hit games in his last seven and his August was much improved from his July in batted ball terms, so I’m more confident than his overall stats would indicate.
There, I only spent $27,600 of your budget for five players. That leaves a lot of coin available for those final five slots, allowing you to go major on the big name bats or perhaps roll with a Stephen Strasburg type in your third SP spot. This is, I think (I can go back and check my results spreadsheet), the least money I’ve ever committed in a Daily Five, so hopefully it pays off for both of us. Still need to spend that last $72k well, though.
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Blake Murphy is a freelance sportswriter based out of Toronto. Formerly of the Score, he's the managing editor at Raptors Republic and frequently pops up at Sportsnet, Vice, and around here. Follow him on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.
Evan Longoria is awfully cheap today. I also like Adam Dunn against a split-heavy Bud Norris. With you on Wacha and Bettis; no-brainers at these prices.