Daily Fantasy Strategy – 9/19 – For Draftstreet

Gotta be honest, it’s getting real tough to come up with preambles of value at this point in the season. With just a week and a half left, I’d suggest players get a bit more aggressive turning profits into more profits, while those who have lost this year probably shouldn’t chase bad money with good money.

However, there’s a question here that more data could answer – how does enrolment change late in the year? Or even on Thursdays, when there are far fewer games?

And, while we know we generally need about 40 points for a “double up” format, what’s our goal for a winner-take-all?

These are the kind of questions I’m hoping to answer in the next week or so, or possibly with a year-end wrap post, assuming DraftStreet is able to kick us some data (they seem receptive to the idea). So, what kind of questions would you want answered if I could get my hands on some Draftsreet data?

(In addition, any topics you’d like tackled in preambles this weekend? I’m nothing if not obedient.)

The Daily Five

Kyle Lohse – $11,056
It’s slim pickings on the pitching front today, with few bargains available unless you want to roll the dive on Michael Wacha at Coors. Lohse isn’t a guy you want to spend big cheddar on, but he’s serviceable (3.46 ERA, 4.10 FIP). He also draws a Cubs team that has been below-average against righties for the year (.306 wOBA) and has been downright awful since the ALl-Star break (.295 wOBA). Sure, the Cubs lit Lohse up for seven runs on Sept. 6, but that speaks to the randomness of starts more than any flaw in the Lohse-Cubs match-up.

Hiroki Kuroda – $12,043
#HIROK. That should be all you need to know, but since he’s been brutal in four of his last five starts, consider the match-up. The Jays have shut down Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista for the year, leaving their line-up far too close to the Buffalo Bisons everyday line-up from this summer. And Kuroda still has a 3.13 ERA on the year, so it’s not as if the cold stretch brought him back to a Pelfrey-like reality; he’s still really good.

Pedro Alvarez – $6,945
The escape to Petco has been working out well for Ian Kennedy and while PNC is still a pitcher’s park, Pirates hitters are priced like Kennedy has fixed all his warts. I’ve gone with a cheap lefty-duo of Alvarez and Justin Morneau (contractually obligated to as a Canadian). Alvarez has a .330 wOBA against righties at PNC with 14 of his 33 home runs, so the park shouldn’t be a concern for him.

Nick Swisher – $6,793
Bro, you just know he’s got the homers in him, bro, because brother, that’s what Swizzy does, dude. In all seriousness, he’s got a .395 wOBA against left-handed pitchers and draws Dallas Keuchel with an 8 MPH wind blowing out to left-center.

Denard Span – $7,373
The hit streak lives on!

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