Daily Fantasy Strategy – 9/12 – For Draftstreet

Does it feel like you’ve been getting slightly more bang for your hitter dollars the past week or two? Alternatively, has it felt like this year has been a bit tougher to get an edge at the plate?

If either of those thoughts had crossed your mind, one or more of the following is true:

a) You’re dealing with a bit of a fundamental attribution error.
b) You’re very perceptive to incredibly small changes over very large samples.
c) You’re Ike Davis.

B is what we care about, because it turns out that so far, September has provided more fantasy points on a per-plate appearance bases than earlier in the year despite there not being an accompanying wOBA jump. Additionally, fantasy points per plate appearance are down slightly this season compared to 2011 and 2012, which shouldn’t be that surprising since offense is down a tick league-wide.

Of course, this doesn’t tell us much, but it at least helps explain the current scoring environment. It’s possible it’s just a small sample blip, or perhaps there are other factors (I can think of a few). Anyway, there’s that.

The Daily Five
Wei-Yin Chen – $9,715
Thursday is really short on pitcher bargains. The banged-up Yankees have a .304 wOBA against southpaws, while Chen has been solid despite low strikeout totals. There’s no edge here, really, except that there are few good, cheap starting options and I believe Chen will be alright.

Tanner Roark – $11,484
Again, there aren’t many pitcher values, so if this seems like a bad deal to you I understand. But find a better set up cheaper…can you? The Mets can’t hit (.301 wOBA, 21.8% K-rate against righties) and Roark looks like he could be something for the Nationals. He shutout the Marlins in his first career start after a quarter of a season’s worth of great bullpen work, so now he continues his friendly NL East Starter Welcoming Tour.

Logan Morrison – $7,823
Hate him or not, LoMo has a .353 wOBA against righties on the year. The price isn’t jaw-dropping but it feels like you just have to make room for a Marlin against Freddy Garcia, and LoMo is also the cheapest of the three Marlins’ hitters with a pulse. The dude Giancarlo will also be getting the starting nod in my lineup at $8,269.

Josh Donaldson – $7,673
Another great match-up at a good-not-great price, Donaldson is an absolute beats against lefties and draws Scott Diamond as an opponent. There’s no reason for Donaldson to be priced more like an average player than a top performer today. If Derek Norris starts, he’s also a very solid play with a .411 wOBA against lefties.

Ian Desmond – $7,491
Hey, it’s Aaron Harang! It’s also a fairly priced 20-20 man at shortstop, up against a young catcher who is still figuring out how to control the run game. Loads of potential here.

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