Daily Fantasy Strategy – 8/7 – For Draftstreet

Your chances of successfully predicting a multi-homer game are pretty slim. Your process can be spot on a hundred times and you may never stumble into one. Alternatively, you could be playing a match-up for steals or ratios and happen to end up with two taters on your plate.

Last night, Jacoby Ellsbury went deep twice against the Houston Astros, providing great value for daily league players in a 15-10 slugfest. Ellsbury’s game marked the 169th time this year a player has had a multi-home run game and the eighth time already in August. Not surprisingly, teams who received multiple homers from the same player have gone 130-39 in those games this year.

Daily fantasy players have made out just as well.

The average multi-homer game has produced 17.4 fantasy points under DraftStreet scoring, providing a major boon to a player’s chances on a given day. Considering 40 points is generally the “double-up” point in those formats, a multiple-homer game can go a long way to securing you a windfall. In winner take all formats, there’s still work to be done but it significantly lowers the required output from the rest of the team.

So hey, just identify multi-homer games, alright? Easier said than done, of course.

The Daily Five
Miguel Gonzalez – $9,405
I’m not really a firm believer in Gonzalez moving forward but the set up couldn’t be better. It’s Petco, the wind is blowing in to first base and the Padres are terrible against righties, posting just a .296 wOBA. Gonzalez’ biggest wart is his fly ball rate, which will matter far less in this one. He doesn’t strike out a tonne of guys but gets enough to matter, to boot.

Ryan Dempster – $10,727
In the past, I’ve found Dempster to be underrated, both in fantasy terms and real terms. He’s still striking nearly a batter an inning out but is now on his fifth straight year of giving up a sub-par HR/FB rate, plus his fly ball rate has climbed to almost 40%. His walk rate has also ticked upward. However, Ks rule the day in daily leagues, and the Astros are always willing to provide them to righties (25% K-rate) without much pop to make up for it (.293 wOBA).

Leonys Martin – $6,081
Now the sometimes-lead-off hitter, Martin has a tidy .340 OBP against right-handers this year. He also runs, a lot. And tonight he draws Tommy Hanson, who loves nothing better than to allow stolen bases (Toronto Blue Jays’ delayed steals not included). Seriously, if Martin doesn’t steal a base tonight I’ll let you guys pick my preamble topics for a week.

Brett Lawrie – $6,963
It’s Aaron Harang, which should forced you to look at some Blue Jays anyway. But Lawrie comes a little cheaper than some other hot names and has quietly been riding a hot streak of his own – Lawrie has a .407 wOBA in his past 19 games and has been squaring up a lot of balls since mid-July. He’s also had a surge in batted ball distance, a trait that’s indicative of a potential jump in HR/FB rate. Lawrie appears to be finding some of the “it” that had us Jays fans fawning in 2011, but the daily price is yet to adjust accordingly.

Russell Martin – $6,909
Tom Koehler looks like the guy from Can’t Hardly Wait/Vegas Vacation/Empire Records, so I refuse to take him seriously. Double-check the line-ups to make sure a) Martin is starting (he had Monday off, so there’s no clear reason why he wouldn’t be) and b) it’s not raining (there is a 50/50 chance in this one). If those checks come out clean, you’ve got a low-cost catcher against a ho-hum pitcher.

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