Daily Fantasy Strategy – 8/22 – For Draftstreet

Last night at Miller Park, five home runs jumped off bats with the retractable roof open. Miller Park generally has a reputation as a hitter’s ballpark, but the five-homer output made me curious as to the difference in how the park plays with the roof open and closed and with different wind conditions.

So, let’s head to the ol’ Baseball Reference Play Index and pull all games from Miller Park since 2010.

The first thing of note is that it appears the Brewers don’t close the roof strictly for temperature reasons – there have been 11 instances of games being played with 90-degree temperature or warmer. We also know that temperatures have ranged from 60- to 71-degrees with the dome closed, so we would expect the park to play more hitter-friendly with the roof open versus closed.

Of course, none of this matters since the Brewers are off today, but I didn’t realize that until after I pulled all the data. Keep it in mind for the future.

The Daily Five
Joe Kelly – $10,923
Kelly has been lights out in five of his seven starts since re-entering the rotation but taken a bit of a beating in the other two. On a really thin day for pitchers against a high-strikeout offense like the Braves, he’s worth the risk (the Braves have a 21.8% K-rate against righties). And for what it’s worth, he shut the Braves down over 6.3 in late July.

Travis Wood – $10,995
Another unsexy pick, Wood draws the Nationals, who are just terrible against southpaws. They have a .289 wOBA against lefties and have struck out 20.8% of the time as a team. Wood’s 3.13 ERA is a bit misleading but his peripherals indicate he’s still a decent arm (3.77 FIP) who can keep the ball in the yard (if you believe a 500-inning sample in that regard).

Chase Utley – $8,420
Oh, an established player at a somewhat expectant price? That’s tough to recommend, I suppose, but there aren’t many second basemen cheaper with a favourable match-up. Most of the cheaper names are low-upside plays, which doesn’t win the day. We can skimp elsewhere with deals to make room for Utley, who draws the struggling Chad Bettis

Alex Gordon – $6,425
It honestly feels like I write this same blurb every single week. Gordon doesn’t display platoon splits, yet comes cheap against lefties all the time. His opponent today, Jose Quintana, also doesn’t display platoon splits, albeit in a much smaller sample. Quintana derives a lot of his value from his plus fastball, too, and Gordon has feasted on fastballs for three straight seasons.

Russell Martin – $5,327
This feels like a criminally low price for a catcher almost assured of starting, with as strong a profile as Martin has. He’s been consistently good all season, against either handed pitcher.

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