Daily Fantasy Strategy – 8/21/13 – For Draftstreet

Anyone who reads this space regularly knows I love exploiting platoon splits in daily pools more than Kel loves orange soda. So today I’m taking a crack at trying to find guys among today’s probable pitchers with big platoon splits in 2013. This could help your roster management in a couple ways. Should you play that platoon-heavy (Matt Joyce?) guy against today’s pitcher? (the answer is no). You could also ask questions like “should you really run out that guy with a .400 wOBA against lefties against righty-mashers like the Red Sox?” (also no).

The below list is sorted by LHH-RHH wOBA difference. Guys at the top of the list are knocked around by lefties more than righties while guys at the bottom suffer the opposite fate. Guys in the middle (with near .000 difference) have been relatively platoon independent this year. Cliff Lee gets batters out indiscriminately.

Some notes: sample size caveats apply some guys, since Rienzo, Arrieta, and Ohlendorf are all under 100 lefty/righty batters faced. Justin Masterson is up there as a righty-killer/lefty-eh but perhaps not as high as you’d think. We know Jake Westbrook’s negative K%-BB% isn’t doing him any good, but it doesn’t help he gets raked by left-handed hitters. The list is top-heavy, meaning more rights have trouble with lefties than vice-versa (expected), but we still have a trio of lefties in Ohlendorf, Iwakuma, and Chen who have moderate splits.

Name	Team	vs. RHH wOBA	vs. RHH K%	vs. RHH BB%	vs. LHH wOBA	vs. LHH K%	vs. LHH BB%	DELTA wOBA
Adam Warren	Yankees	0.276	21%	8%	0.400	16%	10%	-0.124
Jake Westbrook	Cardinals	0.279	11%	9%	0.394	7%	11%	-0.115
Jeremy Guthrie	Royals	0.279	14%	7%	0.387	12%	8%	-0.108
Zack Greinke	Dodgers	0.256	18%	6%	0.363	19%	9%	-0.107
Justin Masterson	Indians	0.243	32%	7%	0.313	19%	10%	-0.070
R.A. Dickey	Blue Jays	0.300	19%	7%	0.355	17%	9%	-0.055
Anibal Sanchez	Tigers	0.239	28%	6%	0.293	25%	8%	-0.054
Barry Zito	Giants	0.366	14%	9%	0.411	17%	11%	-0.045
Jerome Williams	Angels	0.318	16%	7%	0.360	14%	9%	-0.042
Kevin Correia	Twins	0.336	13%	5%	0.377	13%	7%	-0.041
Ian Kennedy	Padres	0.329	19%	10%	0.361	20%	9%	-0.032
Erik Bedard	Astros	0.339	22%	12%	0.357	18%	10%	-0.018
Gerrit Cole	Pirates	0.280	19%	6%	0.297	16%	6%	-0.017
Jeremy Hellickson	Rays	0.324	18%	7%	0.334	19%	5%	-0.010
Tom Gorzelanny	Brewers	0.278	23%	8%	0.280	24%	11%	-0.002
Cliff Lee	Phillies	0.281	26%	4%	0.280	16%	6%	0.001
Mike Leake	Reds	0.311	16%	7%	0.306	13%	6%	0.005
Jake Arrieta	Cubs	0.323	24%	9%	0.317	17%	18%	0.006
Juan Nicasio	Rockies	0.335	14%	5%	0.325	18%	13%	0.010
A.J. Griffin	Athletics	0.309	19%	5%	0.295	18%	8%	0.014
Jon Niese	Mets	0.343	16%	9%	0.327	15%	9%	0.016
Alex Wood	Braves	0.249	23%	6%	0.231	39%	8%	0.018
Felix Doubront	Red Sox	0.328	20%	10%	0.309	24%	9%	0.019
Derek Holland	Rangers	0.302	22%	7%	0.275	26%	6%	0.027
Brandon McCarthy	Diamondbacks	0.361	10%	4%	0.326	18%	6%	0.035
Nathan Eovaldi	Marlins	0.320	19%	8%	0.282	13%	13%	0.038
Ross Ohlendorf	Nationals	0.271	22%	6%	0.232	20%	8%	0.039
Wei-Yin Chen	Orioles	0.302	15%	6%	0.262	19%	6%	0.040
Hisashi Iwakuma	Mariners	0.304	21%	5%	0.254	22%	5%	0.050
Andre Rienzo	White Sox	0.363	18%	15%	0.287	14%	9%	0.076

Like last week, here is all of today’s probable starters in patented (maybe not) Fangraphs sortable leaderboard style for your personal perusal.

The Daily Five

Scooter Gennett – $8,060

Who loves crushing righties? Scooter Gennett loves crushing righties. Is it true? I mentioned Westbrook’s lefty issues before and Gennett (albeit in a small sample) has done nothing by rake (especially righties) the last few weeks. His cost isn’t quite the bargain I thought it might be, but I’m still rolling the dice on him being an elite option.

Ike Davis – $5,863

EDIT: Davis is not in the starting lineup today.

Davis comes relatively cheap at this price point, allowing you to use him at first or in a utility slot if you need to make room/save cash. Fellow Rotographer Chris Cwik broke down Davis a week ago, and while the power appears to have (hopefully temporarily) disappeared, he’s not the black hole he was at the beginning of the year.

Adrian Beltre – $8,608

Beltre strikes me as a nice value play, which is tough at a price point north of $8k. First, he’s getting Erik Bedard of 4.55 xFIP in Arlington. If that wasn’t enough, Beltre has been hitting balls hard lately, with increases in LD% and HR/FB% of the last couple of months.

Zack Greinke – $17.429

Yes, the Marlins look like slightly less of a Quad-A team these days. However, as seen above, Grienke’s Achilles’ heel has been teams stacked with lefties who can hit. The Marlins aren’t and kind of can’t.

Felix Doubront – $10,938

Doubront has struggled a bit in his last few outings which has brought his Draftstreet cost down commensurately. However, his velocity remains fine and he’s facing a Giants team that has only scratched a single run across against Red Sox starters the last two nights. With John Farrell not using Koji Uehara in the highest of high-leverage situations last night (closer rules, FTW!) you have a nice bullpen option behind him, too!

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