Daily Fantasy Strategy – 7/31/13 – For Draftstreet

Yes, today’s officially the last day “hug watch(TM)!” Well, “hug watch” or “I’m tipping my clubhouse guys lots of money in non-descript envelopes” watch.

Whatever the case may be, it goes without saying  you’ll want to keep an eye on the trade deadline today. With three afternoon games, maybe you’ll want to get into one of the early Draftstreet pools, so you’re probably going to want to steer clear of guys like Alex Rios, Michael Young, Hunter Pence, and Michael Morse. Keep an eye on all moves for you daily lineup leagues, too. No use starting a zero while someone is packing their bags and taking a cross-country flight.

On the weather front (no pun intended!) it’s already a dreary morning here in Ann Arbor (just west of Detroit) and it’s expected to stay that way all day. Doesn’t look like a washout, but there will be moisture around for the Nats/Tigers game. Because of this, if you are absolutely coinflipping between Justin Verlander or Gio Gonzalez and pitcher Y, maybe take pitcher Y just to steer clear of potential rain delay issues. The same weather system will be affecting Cleveland this evening, so this same logic holds for guys in the Indians/White Sox game.

A bigger potential rain problem is in Atlanta tonight, where fairly significant thunderstorms are forecast in the afternoon, slowly tapering as we head into the overnight hours. The problem here is both A) thunderstorms are much more likely to cause delays/postponements due to lightning and localized heavy rain and B) the game is a 7:00 PM ET start, so if your lineups lock upon the first game of the day (or you want to play in an early DraftStreet league) you aren’t going to have near real-time weather information. Unless you absolutely lurve them today, I’d stay away from Mike Minor, Tyler Chatwood, and most guys on the offense today if you need to have your roster locked by 1 PM.

The Daily Five

Mike Trout – $9,840

Mike Trout. Under $10,000. In Texas. Against a rookie pitcher.

Wil Myers – $8,913

It’s remains to be seen whether Myers is making fundamental adjustments against big league hitters, but he certainly has seemed to figure out bat-flippage. Myers has a ridiculous 279 wOBA over the last few weeks, and he’s backing it up with a stellar ISO (.429) and and a solid LD% (23%). Facing lefty Wade Miley in a ballpark that is above-average for RHH homers? Yeah, I’ll spend the cash to see what’s up.

Jedd Gyorko – $3,692

Yes, I know he’s put up negative Draftstreet points since he came back from his groin injury but this is a guy who was hitting like a top-3 National League second baseman immediately before his injury. While he shakes the rust off, take advantage of his bargain basement price to squeeze another $3,000-4,000 out of another position.

R.A. Dickey – $11,035

Dickey has had an altogether rough transition to the American League, but he may be good value today. Knuckleballers generally are high FB% pitchers and O.co Coliseum (they’re still calling it that, right?) helps suppress FB% BABIP. Oakland’s lineup is a bit feast-or-famine, but have a big propensity to swing and miss so there’s good strikeout upside here, too.

Erik Bedard – $10,873

Bedard has certainly been racking up the whiffs recently, with 22 in his last 16 innings. That should continue today against a lineup (Orioles) with a couple strikeout prone guys, especially the quasi-slumping Chris Davis who owns both a 2013 and career 32% K% versus southpaws. The Canadian hurler is not a prime cut, but if you need to save $4,000 or so, I don’t think he’s a huge downgrade from Corey Kluber or Jeff Locke.

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