Daily Fantasy Strategy – 6/30 – For Draftstreet

This has nothing to do with baseball, but go out of your way and find the image from the Tour de France yesterday with the van stuck under the finish line. Honestly looked like something out of Arrested Development. Watch out for hop-ons…you’re gonna get some hop-ons.

Fortunately for us, none of us ever get stuck at the finish line, because we’ll have room to spare at the fantasy finish*. (*This does not apply to me, I’ve had a bad week in daily leagues. But you should still take my advice.) It’s a good day for baseball, with a lot of beautiful weather set-ups and some fun match-ups for viewing purposes.

But you’re here for daily fantasy, DraftStreet or otherwise, and you probably want something valuable for a pre-amble other than me going stream-of-consciousness.

The other week I wrote about Bill Petti’s hitter volatility metric. I wanted to show an example here, though, of what even the least volatile player’s fantasy spread looks like. Sometimes after a bad day (or week, in my case), it’s nice to remind ourselves how random a sport we’re dealing with,

So forgive yourself on occasion if you spend big on a stud and it doesn’t pay off, even if it looks like a great situation. Baseball happens.

The Daily Five
Edwin Jackson – $8,827
Jackson’s unsightly 5.78 ERA holds his price down, but he’s actually pitched much better than that would indicate. He’s striking a fair number of batters and the walks aren’t terrible, plus he’s keeping the ball on the ground. It all adds up to a 3.78 FIP and 3.88 xFIP. On Sunday, Jackson draws the Mariners, one of the league’s worst offenses against right-handed pitchers with a high strikeout rate to boot. As a final nod in his direction, the wind is blowing in at Safeco Field, helping mute any fly balls he surrenders.

Nate Eovaldi – $11,667
Eovaldi comes at a mid-level price for his third start of the year. He’s been pretty good so far despite some long balls, and he has a fair set up at home in Miami against the Padres, who are mediocre against right-handers and strike out quite a bit. I’m a believer in Eovaldi’s long-term ability to succeed without elite punch-out rates and the Padres are an easy way for me to test this, especially with a strong wind blowing any balls pulled to right field back into the field of play.

Jonny Gomes – $7,249
He comes at a below-average price due to struggles so far this year and a low home run total, but there’s a good chance he gets it going on Sunday. Mark Buehrle is in town, a soft-tossing lefty that right-handers have been squaring up quite a bit this year. Gomes hasn’t made the best use of the Monster so far this year (I thought he’d have huge double numbers) but Jose Bautista showed us on Saturday that when the wind is willing, which it will be on Sunday, the Monster doesn’t have to be an impediment to dingers.

Billy Butler – $6,578
Sorry, Kevin Correia, but I’m not buying what you’re selling this year, though I am a believer in your reverse splits. Butler’s not a guy I love in season-long leagues but for daily, his low-K high-BB approach pushes his floor up. When he hits fly balls, they can travel, it’s just a matter of him getting one in the air.

Ryan Zimmerman – $7,366
I believe it’s a crime in baseball circles to bet against Zach Wheeler, so it was nice knowing you. There’s a huge wind blowing out to left in New York, though, and Wheeler has struggled enough with his control so far to make the floor on a high-walk guy like Zimmerman a higher floor option.

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