Contextualizing Freddie Freeman’s Great Year
Amongst the exciting young sluggers in the game, it’s easy to overlook Freddie Freeman. He’s not overly flashy and lacked the benefit of the hype machine while in the minors. However, he’s only 24 years old and was nearly a five-win player in 2013. His .387 wOBA ranked 13th in all of baseball, and he was the third-ranked first baseman in ESPN leagues.
It’s crazy to ponder the fact that Freeman will be 24 years old for the vast majority of the 2014 season, as well, because he’s already been one of the best young first basemen over the last 20 years. Since the strike, only two first basemen have connected with more home runs through their age-24 season than Freeman.
| # | Name | Team | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albert Pujols | Cardinals | 160 |
| 2 | Prince Fielder | Brewers | 114 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | Braves | 68 |
| 4 | Mark Teixeira | Rangers | 64 |
| 5 | Billy Butler | Royals | 55 |
| 6 | Paul Konerko | White Sox | 52 |
| 7 | Derrek Lee | Padres/Marlins | 51 |
| 8 | Eric Hosmer | Royals | 50 |
The above chart certainly puts Freeman’s early-career performance into perspective, but it also indicates few first basemen acquire starting roles in their early-20s. Not factoring in position, Freeman has the 28th-most home runs of any player through their age-24 season since the labor strike — which is still impressive, but not nearly as noteworthy as being number three.
I’m not satisfied suggesting Freeman could become the next elite first baseman in fantasy leagues. He’s amassed an impressive number of home runs early in his career, which bodes well for future performance, but the young man has yet to eclipse the 23-homer mark in a single season. That’s far from elite power production from the first base position. In fact, our own Eno Sarris discussed that very issue in an erudite article earlier this year.
Sarris mentions Nick Swisher as a fair comp for Freddie Freeman going forward, and I’m fond of that comparison. Swisher has never hit fewer than 20 bombs in a full season, yet he’s only hit more than 30 homers once (2006). He’s consistent. He’s also rarely elite. As I said, that level of expectation going forward for Freeman feels on the money.
So what do we do with this season? Freeman posted a better wOBA in his third big-league season than Swisher ever did in his career. Surely, being on the correct side of the age curve, Freeman is destined for bigger and better things than being a consistent three-to-four win player.
To be fair, there’s a lot to like about his development as a player. His walk rate has improved in each of his three seasons in the majors, while his strikeout rate has correspondingly dropped. Furthermore, his 25.2% line drive rate over the past three season ranks ninth in Major League Baseball amongst qualified players, so perhaps fantasy owners should expect a higher-than-average BABIP going forward.
Those trends must translate into a consistently high batting average, though, because that’s the only thing that would separate him from someone like Nick Swisher. Freeman’s ISO and home run numbers have been extraordinarily consistent throughout his first three seasons. If we also consider the fact that his minor-league power numbers weren’t anything impressive, it seems to be a stretch to project much more power from Freeman in future seasons.
And even if Freeman did produce a high line drive rate, it’s unreasonable to expect the 24-year-old slugger to sustain a .371 BABIP. That’s the only reason he compiled a .300+ batting average, and that’s what made him so valuable in fantasy leagues. He provided solid (though unspectacular) power and packed it up with an elite batting average. If that average falls to .270-.290 through regression, he’s once again delving into Nick Swisher territory.
Though when roughly comping Freeman to Swisher, we’re talking about power and average, not counting statistics such as runs and RBI. Those are understandably variable, but Freeman could have a leg up because he’s projected to bat cleanup for the Braves. That should result in more run and RBI opportunities, which is something Swisher largely hasn’t gotten throughout his career. Thus, in standard leagues, Freeman could once again be a touch more valuable, even if the core comp still holds firm.
Looking forward to next year, I’m not sure Freddie Freeman cracks my top-five first basemen, which means I believe he’s likely going to be overrated on draft day. Without doing too much research, my cursory top-five first basemen would include Chris Davis, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion and Prince Fielder. One could make an argument that Eric Hosmer belongs on that list, too.
That’s not to suggest Freeman is a poor option at first base. He’s clearly an above-average first baseman who strongly benefits from being on the correct side of the aging curve. When the 2014 draft season rolls around, though, I’m going to bank on his batting average coming down to earth and his power production remaining steady — which means I’m likely not targeting him at first base because I believe better value options will be available for less money or in later rounds.
J.P. Breen is a graduate student at the University of Chicago. For analysis on the Brewers and fantasy baseball, you can follow him on Twitter (@JP_Breen).
I’m curious why, among 24 year old Braves, Freeman is always viewed as a “this is as good as he is going to get” type player and Heyward as being chock full of untapped potential when Freeman has pretty consistently produced and Heyward has largely disappointed. I mean this mainly from an offensive perspective since Heyward certainly provides more defensive value.
What do you think the word “disappointed” means, precisely? Heyward’s WRC+ was 121 last year and 120 this year. In the “2nd half” of 2013, his WRC+ was 162.
Heyward has all the potential because he’s got 5 tools. He could put up a 130 WRC, 25 HR, 25SB, and play “Fielding Bible” caliber right field defense. Freddie Freeman has a better bat, but is slow and average defensively and that doesn’t lead one to say “untapped potential”.
It always amazes me when someone calls Jason Heyward “disappointing”. I wonder how many teams would like an age 24 16.5 WAR player on their team.
I meant exactly what I said and then you reiterated. His bat has been disappointing so far compared to the 30/30 MVP type numbers people have been expecting for the past couple years. You said yourself, he “could” put up 25/25 and a WRC+ of 130, but has not yet, even though many expected him to this year. I think that qualifies as disappointing. Also, I even said in my comment I was referring to offense because Heyward is obviously more valuable defensively, so I was pretty clear that wasn’t what I was talking about.
I was posing an honest question. Why does everyone expect Heyward to suddenly become a superstar hitter yet not expect Freeman to improve, given their past performance and almost identical age? I’m not attacking Heyward, I’m just trying to see what everyone else sees, and having a hard time not being disappointed by his bat so far.
Heyward has hit 27 homers in a season. It would be optimistic to think Freeman would even make it to that number, let alone 30. Heyward’s BB% has gone up each year, and his K% has gone down, giving us good evidence of an inproved approach. It’s thought that Heyward possesses the natural strength to hit lots of home runs, which has never really been the case with Freeman. If Heyward hits the ball in the air, he’s strong enough to send a good amount of those balls out. His rises in HR total coincide with his rises in FB%. Freeman has been more of a line drive hitter, and his batted ball numbers look pretty stable.
A lot of the “disappointment” with Heyward I assume comes from his inability to stay on the field, regardless of how freakish the injuries are. His sophomore year was hampered by injury, and even still, he’s been insanely productive to date. I also assume there’s some positional value related to it, and Freeman’s numbers may look a lot better in an OF spot. But even now, Heyward has shown he can make a damn good CF, and that has to make him even more valuable. The only people who think he’s been disappointing are ones that had ridiculous expectations to begin with.
My guess is you’d get a “tools” and “swing plane” answer — that Freeman’s swing is not conducive to generating significantly more power than what we’ve seen from him to date, whereas Heyward’s is. That said, I think it’s a valid question — would be curious to hear others’ thoughts on this.
That’s pretty much it. Heyward’s 2012 (27 HR) was at a 36.7% FB%. Freeman’s 2012 (23 HR) was at 36.9%. Heyward definitely falls short of Freeman when it comes to bat-to-ball contact skills. But Heyward has always been seen as a power threat as long as he could hit enough balls in the air.
I promise I’m not trying to be a dick, but Dan Uggla’s Forearm’s response was exactly what I’m talking about when people discuss Heyward. His BB% has in fact has generally declined from year to year, from 14.6 to 11.2 to 8.9 before rebounding to 10.9 this year. Likewise, his K% increased from 20.5 to 20.4 to 23.3 before declining to 16.6 this year. Freeman’s BB% on the other hand actually has increased each year, from 8.3 to 10.3 to 10.5 and his K% has declined from 22.4 to 20.8 to 19.2. You also characterize Freeman as more of a line drive hitter, but his career FB% of 35.6% is actually superior to Heyward’s 32.9% and their HR/FB%’s are 14.7% and 15.3% respectively. I know the point you were trying to make, but the numbers don’t back it up.
Look, I would take either guy on my team any day. I just think at this point in their careers, speaking strictly about hitting, Freeman has shown more signs, on a numbers basis, of progressing into a big time hitter than Heyward, but Heyward always gets all the hype. At this point, i can only assume ginger-bias.