Comparing Underlying Metrics Between Pitchers
We all look at underlying metrics when it comes to any player, but whether we like to admit it or not we still sometimes look at the basic numbers. For pitchers, while ERA and WHIP of course mean something, we all know they aren’t predictive at all. Yet sometimes they are hard to ignore and we think, “well he did have a great ERA.” As a fun little exercise, we are going to compare two pitchers at a time based on underlying statistics to see if we can push away some biases. Let’s have some fun!
Player A) 20.7 K-BB%, 3.72 SIERA, 29.8 CSW%, 32.8% Chase rate.
Player B) 20.4 K-BB%, 3.72 SIERA, 25.7 CSW%, 32.1 Chase rate.
Let’s look at their basic stats.
Player A) 3.53 ERA and 1.10 WHIP
Player B) 2.69 ERA and 1.07 WHIP
Vastly different ERA’s here but very similar underlying metrics. This one isn’t as fun because it is two big names but I wanted to just show how two pitchers with similar underlying metrics can have very different surface-level stats. Player A is Lucas Giolito and Player B is Lance Lynn.
Okay, time for some more fun ones.
Player A) 18.3 K-BB%, 3.85 SIERA, 30.1 CSW%, 3.24 xERA, 47.2 GB%. 92.4 FB velo.
Player B) 19.0 K-BB%, 3.88 SIERA, 28.2 CSW%, 3.37 xERA, 38.8 GB%, 93.4 FB velo.
Two very similar profiles here, Player A seems to take the cake taking every category except for K-BB%. The higher CSW% means likely more strikeouts and the higher GB% plus lower xERA means they are better at inducing weak contact. Yet here are their ERA and WHIPs:
Player A) 4.19 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
Player B) 3.22 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
Player A is Sonny Gray and Player B is Alek Manoah. Manoah will surely go much higher than Gray and already has in early drafts. While Manoah deserves it maybe this more so shows that Gray will likely be undervalued in 2022. Many will see a 4.19 ERA/3.99 FIP and will forget that he had a combined 3.07 ERA between 2019 and 2020.
One thing you can learn from the Main Event overall champion Phil Dussault’s 2021 drafts was that he leaned heavily on older boring pitchers instead of young exciting ones. Sonny Gray seems like one of those options for 2022.
This one is a bit eye-opening.
Player A) 19.9 K-BB%, 3.87 SIERA, 25.9 CSW%, 95.3 FB Velo, 12.4 SwStr%, 39.6 Z-Whiff%.
Player B) 19.6 K-BB%, 3.73 SIERA, 29.6 CSW%, 95.4 FB Velo, 11.6 SwStr%, 28.2 Z-Whiff%.
Player B has a higher CSW% but based on their SwStr% it looks like Player B relies on called strikes more. It’s almost like Player A seems to have more whiff ability, especially with that higher zone whiff rate. Basic stats time.
Player A) 4.68 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
Player B) 2.47 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.
Player A is Logan Gilbert and Player B is Walker Buehler. There is a ton of talk about Logan Gilbert already but he still might not be going high enough. In three of the five months, he pitched he had a K% over 27%. His four-seam maxes out at 99 MPH and he has two breaking balls with an above-average SwStr%. One of which (the curveball) also had a ground ball rate over 69%. There certainly are holes to pick but the potential is massive and while I am contradicting what I just said about taking the boring veteran-type pitcher he is the one young arm to grab in 2022.
One more.
Player A) 138.2 IP, 19.3 K-BB%, 3.60 SIERA, 32.3 CSW%, 83.0 Z-Contact%.
Player B) 133.0 IP, 20.2 K-BB%, 3.72 SIERA, 30.4 CSW%, 80.7 Z-Contact%.
Both had missed time due to different circumstances but player A seems to take the cake here with a lower SIERA and higher CSW%. The only issue with player A is that their CSW is heavily reliant on called strikes. Basic stats time again!
Player A) 3.83 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
Player B) 2.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
Player A is Alex Wood and Player B is Trevor Rogers. Alex Wood found himself in a perfect situation in San Francisco and we aren’t sure where he will sign next. If he does sign with an attractive team and ballpark this again could fall into the going with the boring veteran type of pitcher. Wood certainly brings health risk but one would imagine he would go late enough in drafts where the risk is worth the reward.
There is more to the picture than the stats I displayed but it’s always a good and fun exercise to do this type of thing because it’s a good way to find outliers. It’s a good way to find specific skill sets later in drafts if your “guys” get drafted before you can get your hands on them.
“There is more to the picture than the stats I displayed but it’s always a good and fun exercise to do this type of thing because it’s a good way to find outliers.” This is true to a point, but you have to look at the whole picture every time.
Sonny Gray’s SwStk% is 10.6% combined to Manoah’s 12.6%. SwStk% is more indicative of K% than CSW%, the general rule of thumb is 1% of SwStk% equals 2% of K%. Manoah also has a higher Zone% and a higher O-Swing%, so his walk rate should be lower than Gray’s. I don’t think Manoah will put up a 3.22 ERA again, but I think he’ll outperform Gray, he’s only 24, and pitches in a better home park. You can make the same argument for picking Rogers over Wood, minus the home park.
As for Logan Gilbert, I’m not convinced that 5.6% walk rate is for real. He’s a little above average in Zone%, right around average in O-Swing%, and a little above average in F-Strike%. I don’t think those add up to a walk rate 33% better than league average. His best comps for plate discipline for pitchers with 100+IP are: Lance Lynn, Zach Plesac, Alek Manoah, Jameson Taillon, and Nick Pivetta. They have a combined 7.7% walk rate, which I think is a reasonable estimate for Gilbert’s walk rate. That bumps his FIP to 4.01, lower than his ERA, but not someone who I’m going to jump on. I think his Ks are for real, but I’m not holding my breath on the walks.
This is an interesting set of comparisons, but it gets dangerous making comparisons like this if you don’t look at the whole picture.