The Chicago White Sox entered the 2008 season facing an identity crisis. Coming off of a disappointing 72-win campaign, the South Siders possessed an aging roster and a farm system that had become fallow due to years of conservative drafting. Baseball America ranked the Chicago system 28th-best before the year, leaving an ominous forecast: “With an aging roster in Chicago that stumbled in ’07, the White Sox could be in for a long dry spell.”

Instead, the Pale Hose tallied 89 victories (supported by a +82 run differential). Southpaw John Danks emerged as a potential ace, and the maligned player development program received an infusion of much-needed position player talent. The White Sox system won’t be confused with that of the A’s or Rangers any time soon, but draftees Gordon Beckham (a middle infielder with a quality bat) and Jordan Danks (John’s brother; a rangy outfielder snagged out of Texas), as well as potential secondary-skills monster Tyler Flowers (a C/1B/DH to-be-named-later picked up in the Javier Vazquez deal) gave the system a boost. The Sox also dipped into the international market, signing a highly-touted Cuban for the second straight year.

Dayan Viciedo, who turns 20 this week, inked a four-year major league contract paying him a $4 million bonus and ensuring $10 million overall. The star of Cuba’s junior national team defected in May according to Baseball America, taking a boat to Mexico before etablishing residency in the Dominican Republic. He then shifted to Miami with his agent, Jaime Torres.

While Alexei Ramirez is a sleek athlete known for his speed and quick wrists, Viciedo is a burly right-handed hitter noted for his immense power. As you can see from this video, Viciedo has a quiet, powerful swing. Although this sounds a bit on the hyperbolic side, BA commented that he “has the power to hit 40-plus home runs in season, thanks to a quick swing that’s triggered by strong wrists.”

Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein also extolled Viciedo’s virtues (subscription required), dubbing him the fourth-best prospect in the White Sox System. “Viciedo”, Goldstein noted, “has the potential to be a top-line offensive prospect. He combines brute strength with incredible bat speed, and he’s one of those rare players for whom solid contact “sounds different” when he can fully square up on a fastball.”

While it seems as though a near-consensus exists regarding Dayan’s hitting ability, his skill set afield is much less heralded. Viciedo is listed at 5-11 and 240 pounds on MLB.com, and he was reportedly heavier than that when the White Sox first scouted him. With an ample frame, he could end up shifting down the defensive spectrum to first base or DH. Here’s one scout’s take on Viciedo:

“His body could go the same route as Livan Hernandez, and when I saw him in Mexico, he wasn’t very good at third base anymore,” one international scouting director said. “But he can really hit; in fact, I think he’s probably a better hitter than [Angel] Villalona.”

There have been some rumblings that Viciedo might have a shot of cracking the opening day roster for the White Sox. However, as Goldstein pointed out, “that’s more than a bit aggressive.” While spring training stats can be awfully misleading, he hasn’t hurt his case with two homers in 15 at-bats. The more likely scenario entails Viciedo starting the year in the minors, perhaps at Double-A. Long-term, he’s certainly someone to watch closely.

Fields and Betemit look like a decent platoon duo, but third might be there for the Cuban if he has the defensive chops. If not, DH and 1B will also be vacated sometime soon, with Jim Thome and Paul Konerko reaching the latter stages of their respective careers.

Yesterday, we profiled White Sox third base candidate Josh Fields. The former-first rounder has been a mild disappointment for Chicago, as the 26 year-old enters the 2009 season having yet to secure an everyday job. Today, let’s examine another guy who was once highly-touted, Wilson Betemit.

Betemit knows a thing or two about heightened expectations. The switch-hitter was once the next big thing in the Atlanta farm system, having signed out of the Dominican Republic in 1996. Betemit’s deal put the Braves in a bit of hot water, as birth certificate shenanigans caused confusion. Apparently, he was just 14 when he came to terms with Atlanta- international players are not eligible to sign until age 16. The Braves took a $100K fine and Betemit attempted to become a free agent, but the situation eventually blew over and the prized youngster took the field for the organization.

The results were fairly promising for such a youthful player, as Betemit raked in rookie ball and Low-A in 1999 and 2000. He held his own at High-A as a teenager in 2001 (.277/.326/.412) and smoked Double-A late in the season (.355/.395/.514). Baseball America was smitten with the then-shortstop, naming him the 29th best prospect in the game in ’01 and #8 overall in 2002. He kept his head above water at AAA between 2002 and 2004 (his career line at the level is .263/.325/.421), and he saw his first significant action with the Braves as a 23 year-old in 2005.

Betemit was only a part-time SS by that point, but he posted a tasty .305/.359/.435 showing in 274 PA. Since that point, however, Betemit’s progress at the plate has basically stalled. Following his .337 wOBA with Atlanta in ’05, he has posted marks of .336 in 2006 (split between the Braves and the Dodgers), .342 in 2007 (Dodgers and Yankees), and .308 this past year in the Bronx.

Over the course of his big league career, Betemit has shown decent plate discipline (9 BB%) and a propensity to whiff (28.6 K%), though he kept the K’s and eschewed the walks while posting a 3.1 BB% with the Yankees in limited 2008 playing time. While battling pink eye and a hamstring pull, he ventured outside of the strike zone over 31% of the time in sporadic AB’s for New York, a hefty increase over his previous rates. The Yankees booted Betemit to the South Side of Chicago in an offseason swap involving Nick Swisher.

It’s unfair to label Betemit a “bust”- the 27 year-old has authored a decent .260/.325/.437 career line in the majors- but it’s clear that the thrice-traded former top prospect has fallen short of expectations. His potent bat stopped progressing, and his big 6-3 frame necessitated a shift primarily to the infield corners (where his glove still does him no favors, with a career -8.9 UZR at third).

Betemit hits both ways, but he has done most of his damage against right-handers (.269/.339/.460 career) while generally flailing versus southpaws (.232/.276/.360). Given Fields’ lefty-lashing tendencies, a platoon (AKA a fantasy owner’s worst nightmare) suggests itself. Betemit has his uses on a major league roster as a reserve/platoon player with some pop, but he’s probably not someone deserving of a roster spot in most fantasy leagues.

The lineup on the South Side of Chicago is anything but set at the present moment. The White Sox have three playing time wars being waged, with center field, second base and the hot corner all up for grabs. The third base tussle features a former top prospect whose star has dimmed, a utility man imported from the Bronx, and a young Cuban signee. Let’s begin with the fallen farm product.

When the White Sox plucked Josh Fields with the 18th overall selection in the ’04 amateur draft, he was expected to be the heir apparent to Joe Crede. The Oklahoma State product didn’t overwhelm anyone during stints at High-A Winston Salem in 2004 (.285/.332/.445) or AA Birmingham in 2005 (.252/.341/.409), but he remained well-liked by scouts and rewarded that faith with a more powerful .305/.379/.515 line with AAA Charlotte in 2006. Some caveats do apply, however. Charlotte is a tremendous power park (inflating HR production by 32% from 2006-2008), so his park adjusted line was a more tame .299/.374/.484, and he did whiff nearly 30% of the time.

Fields opened the 2007 season back in the International League (batting .283/.394/.498 with a 16 BB%), but he found himself in the majors that summer as Crede hit the DL and eventually the surgeon’s table with a balky back. The 6-1, 220 pound Fields showed plenty of power in a park that smiles upon righty pull-hitters, posting a .236 ISO and 23 home runs in 418 PA. His control of the strike zone was unrefined, however, as he punched out 33.5% of the time and posted an 8.6 BB%.

Instead of building upon his respectable big league showing, Fields turned in a season to forget in 2008. Sent back to Charlotte, he batted .246/.341/.431, showing patience (11.8 BB%) but also an alarming propensity to swing and miss (35.5 K%). Fields battled a right knee injury that required offseason surgery, and found himself grabbing pine in favor of the hacktastic Juan Uribe when Crede’s back went kaput once again. Both of those fellows have since moved on, and Fields appears to have the upper hand on the job at this juncture.

The 26 year-old bears resemblance to Arizona Diamondbacks third-sacker Mark Reynolds. Both are right-handed batters with pop and adequate walk rates, but both are also afflicted with contact issues and can be neutralized by quality same-side breaking stuff. Fields has roped southpaws in the big leagues (.309/.363/.667 in 136 PA) and in the minors (.283/.389/.504), but his work against righties (.202/.279/.368 in 342 big league PA’s, .265/.348/.439 in the minors) hasn’t been anything to write Ozzie Guillen about. As such, he might end up in a platoon with Wilson Betemit.

Most projection systems peg Fields to post league-average numbers at the hot corner in 2009: CHONE forecasts a .247/.331/.435 line, while PECOTA doled out a .236/.324/.437 prognostication. Fields isn’t a bad fallback option if he secures a starting job, but he’s probably more acceptable regular than exceptional player.

According to The Fantasy Baseball Price Guide over at Last Player Picked, Evan Longoria put up a $10 value in a standard 12-team mixed league last year in his rookie season. That tied him with Troy Glaus for the 12th-most-valuable third baseman in fantasy in 2008. This year, Longoria is the pre-season consensus as the third-best pick among third basemen, trailing only Alex Rodriguez and David Wright. He has an ADP of 19 according to the latest update over at Mock Draft Central.

Are we getting ahead of ourselves in anointing Longoria as a fantasy stud?

Longoria’s ISO of .259 was the 10th-highest mark in the majors last year. It was also significantly above what he did in either Double-A or Triple-A. Longoria’s slugging was helped by a 19.4 percent HR/FB rate, the 13th-best mark in MLB. Can he keep these two marks that high in his sophomore season, especially given his 27.2 percent K%, the 12th-highest in baseball?

And even if the power is real, how confident are you that he can improve upon last year’s .272 average? That came with a .318 BABIP.

The projection systems are typically unreliable with young players. Understanding that caveat, let’s use the Bill James one, since that has the most optimistic line for Longoria. That has him putting up these numbers:

.280-37-116-102-9

Last year, Adrian Gonzalez put up this line and was the 30th-best hitter in fantasy.

.279-36-119-103-0

Now, obviously the SB difference should not be ignored, nor should the difference in position from Gonzalez at 1B and Longoria at 3B. But at least some of those differences are canceled out by adding pitchers into the equation. Eight pitchers last year had a dollar value greater than or equal to the $22 figure posted by Gonzalez.

Do the net differences cancel out 19 spots in draft order?

It is fun to have young superstars on your team and Longoria certainly fits the bill. But ask yourself if you want to overdraft him by one-to-two rounds in order to have him on your squad. Because that is the current premium that owners are placing on him over his most optimistic projection.

The general pool of power at third base took a hit recently for Fantasy Leagues when it was announced St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus could miss the first couple of months of the 2009 season due to shoulder surgery. The Cardinals’ options to replace Glaus for the first few months of the season include prospects David Freese and Brian Barden.

Freese was originally obtained by the Cardinals from the Padres in December 2007 for Jim Edmonds. At the time, Freese had just finished up a full season in High-A ball at the age of 24. He hit .302/.400/.489 with an ISO of .187. The third baseman was old for the league and was playing in a very good hitter’s park.

Once in the Cardinals organization, Freese skipped Double-A and began the year in Triple-A, which was certainly a large jump. The 25-year-old had a modest first three months in the league and held his own. The final two months tell the story, though. Freese hit .378/.419/.694 in July and .337/.389/.596 in August. His final line of the season was .306/.361/.550 with an ISO of .244 in 464 at-bats. On the downside, Freese’s rates regressed – but not too badly. His walk rate dropped from 12.2 BB% to 7.8 BB% and his strikeout rate went from 19.7 K% to 23.9 K%.

Barden would seemingly have a better shot at securing the temporary third-base gig because he actually has some big league experience. However, he has a lower ceiling overall and simply has not preformed well in limited MLB experience, with a line of .182/. 217/.205 in 44 at-bats. He does, though, have a career minor league line of .294/.351/.445 in seven seasons. The 27-year-old is better suited to a utility role and emergency call-up for short periods.

Whomever replaces Glaus for April and possibly May, will have smaller than expected shoes to fill – when looking at the incumbent’s output from last season. Glaus hit just three home runs in the first two months with 18 runs scored, 33 RBI and a batting average around .260.

Barden is certainly not a Fantasy option, and Freese probably is not either unless you’re playing in a deep singles league and he is guaranteed the starting role (which he’s not at this point). Glaus is a player you’ll want to monitor and grab once he’s healthy – unless you already have a better option at third.

Josh Fields was a two-sport star at Oklahoma State, as he was the starting quarterback for the Cowboys and helped lead them to two wins over Oklahoma during his tenure. Fields made the decision to concentrate on baseball and he was the 18th pick of the 2004 draft for the White Sox.

Despite not having the baseball-heavy background of some of his peers, Fields turned in a nice year at Triple-A in 2006 and was considered one of the top prospects in the game for the 2007 season. He responded by hitting 23 home runs in 373 at-bats in his rookie season.

But 2008 was a different story. Fields spent most of the season in the minors and when he did play in the majors, manager Ozzie Guillen constantly harped on his poor defense. Additionally, Fields suffered from a patella injury last year and had off-season surgery on his right knee.

However, Fields is a guy to watch because the starting third base job is his to lose. Yes, his strikeout rate is alarming. But this is also a guy with a .221 ISO in his 478 plate appearances in the majors.

If you miss out on the top tier third baseman and none of the lower tier guys strike your fancy, Fields is an excellent gamble on the late rounds of your draft. He has the opportunity to get 550 at-bats and he has produced power at both Triple-A and the majors in the last three years when given a shot at regular playing time. Fields offers 25 HR power at the end of a draft, something not many players can say.

Continuing our series on how luck effected a player’s season, today I will look at Chone Figgins. I will once again refer you to Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix’s great work on xBABIP which will be referenced. Additionally, BABIP in these posts is defined (H-HR)/(PA-HR-K-BB-HBP).

In my league last year, Chone Figgins had 2B, 3B, and OF eligibility. He also racked up 34 stolen bases to go along with a decent .276 average and 72 runs. While none of these numbers are eye-popping he still was pretty valuable as a guy with a lot of flexibility in a down year. He only played 116 games, and a lot of his numbers were lower than the year before; but a fantasy owner still got pretty good value for him. They were lucky in a sense, as well, because even though his numbers were down he still benefited from pretty good luck on balls in play.

Figgins sported a robust .332 BABIP. Lower than his .389 BABIP the year before, he still outperformed what we’d expect his BABIP to be based on other factors. His xBABIP was a less seemly .295. Had he performed at the level that would be expected in a luck-neutral environment his slash line would have dropped from a paltry .276/.365/.318 to a ghastly .246/.339/.284. With the loss of 14 trips on base, he would lose a couple steals and RBIs coupled with a loss of 5 runs. He already only hit 16 XBH and the loss of two more totally kills his SLG (and as a result his OPS). He essentially becomes Wily Taveras. While that’s decent value it is not what you expect from a guy you take in the 5th round or so. This output seems to be what you would expect from Figgins going forward (maybe a little more but not much). Below is the full stat-line for his 2008 season and what it would have been with a neutral BABIP:

What say ye?

It’s safe to say that Bill Hall does not have a firm grip on the Brewers’ third base job. In fact, after hitting .225/.293/.396 in 2008, he’s lucky to have a Major League job. But that’s what happens when a club has $15.7 million committed to a player.

Thankfully for the Brewers, Hall has the ability to play a number of other positions, including shortstop, second base and the outfield. It’s fortunate because it allows the club the freedom to promote third base prospect Mat Gamel to the Majors, as soon as he’s ready. Gamel, 23, was originally selected in the fourth round out of junior college in 2005. He has been a hitting machine in the minors and has a career line of .305/.375/.489 in 1,710 at-bats. In 2008, he hit .329/.395/.537 in 508 Double-A at-bats. He also appeared in five Triple-A games and two big league games.

Offensively at the Major League level, Gamel has the potential to hit .300 and hit 20 home runs, although the in-game power is still developing. His defense is another story. He made an astonishing 53 errors at third base in 2007 but “improved” in 2008 and made just 30. The club does not have the luxury of hiding him at designated hitter or first base (thanks to Prince Fielder). Left field is not an option thanks to displaced third baseman Ryan Braun. Corey Hart, another promising young hitter, is in right field.

Thankfully, Gamel’s defensive woes will not hurt Fantasy Baseball owners – aside from possibly limiting his playing time and causing him to be removed late in games for defensive purposes. He’s certainly not someone you’ll want to draft to begin the season, but he could become a force in the second half of the year.

Garrett Atkins drew plenty of interest in the off-season from major league teams. The Phillies, Twins, Rays and Angels have all been linked to Atkins since the end of the 2008 season. But fantasy owners are not showing quite the same interest. Many people view the hot corner as a weak position, yet the third baseman for the Rockies has an ADP in the mid 70s, meaning he’s not going on average until the seventh round.

Atkins put up a .286-21-99-86-1 line last year. These were declines across the board from his standout 2006 season, when he was a top-20 hitter and had a $31 fantasy value. His current ADP values him right around the numbers he put up last year, meaning that fantasy players are not counting on much of a bounce-back season from the 29-year old. This pretty much matches the three projection systems, which show a bump in average but have the rest of Atkins’ numbers maintaining 2008 levels.

Is there any reason to think Atkins can improve upon his 2008 output?

His BABIP for road games last year was just .251, which led to a .233 average away from Coors Field. It is reasonable to think he will improve upon this and add some batting average to his line. But Atkins had good power numbers away from home, hitting 12 of his 21 home runs in road parks. So, even with a more normal BABIP, he’s not likely to add much in the power department.

The other thing that jumps out is Atkins’ split by position. Last year he split time between his normal 3B spot and he also saw considerable time at 1B, filling in for the injured Todd Helton. Here are his splits by position:

3B: .307/.338/.485 in 396 PA
1B: .258/.316/.407 in 263 PA

Prior to 2008, Atkins had appeared in just 10 games at first base. Helton had back surgery at the end of September and his status for the start of the season is up in the air. But the Rockies might let Joe Koshansky fill in for Helton this year after his big season at Triple-A, where he went .300-31-121 in 457 at-bats.

The average fan thinks anyone can play first base and not have it affect their offensive numbers. But players from Mickey Mantle to Mike Piazza have found out otherwise. Perhaps Atkins’ position split last year was nothing more than a fluke. But perhaps it wasn’t.

We all want to draft undervalued players. We search for sleepers and reach for them during the draft, hoping they can match our expectations. But with Atkins, we have a player who is being valued at what he did in 2008. Unlike with our favorite sleeper, we know what Atkins is capable of at the major league level – we saw it three years ago in 2006.

If you pick at the top of your draft and don’t end up with Alex Rodriguez or David Wright, it makes sense to target Atkins either at the end of the sixth round or beginning of the seventh. This is in line with what he did last year and if he just duplicates what he did in 2008 you are in okay shape. Yet you still have the upside potential of a healthy player not far removed from a $31 season.

That seems like a better idea than reaching for Pablo Sandoval in the 15th round.

Continuing our series on how luck effected a player’s season, today I will look at Adrian Beltre. I will once again refer you to Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix’s great work on xBABIP which I will make reference to. Additionally, BABIP in these posts is defined (H-HR)/(PA-HR-K-BB-HBP).

Adrian Beltre is one of the best 3B in the game today. Over the past 5 years, Beltre has been worth an average of 4.9 wins per season. Unfortunately for fantasy players, though, nearly half his value is in his glove. Additionally most of his offensive value lies in his monster 2004 season. Last year, however, Beltre was a decent fantasy 3B. His average was sub-par, but he made up for it with 25 HR, 81 R, 87 RBI, and a handful of steals. Beltre achieved these numbers despite battling some pretty poor luck. Adrian logged his worst BABIP since 2002 (.276). This killed his average, as well as hurting his ability to score and drive in runs. Beltre ’s xBABIP on the year was .319 which would have made his numbers a lot better.

If we control his statistics for the new BABIP of .319 (essentially strip the luck out of his balls-in-play), then Beltre gains 19 hits. This bumps his batting average considerably since he is not that prone to the strike out. Adding in the 5 doubles he would have likely gained, Beltre ’s slash line goes up to .300/.358/.500/.858 form the previous line of .266/..327/.457/.784. His increase in times on base and hits also helps him generate 7 more runs and ten more RBIs (bringing his totals to 81 and 87 respectively). It is safe to say that Beltre ’s poor luck had quite the effect on his fantasy season.

Going forward, I would not expect Beltre to have the same poor offensive season he had last year. Since 2002 Beltre has topped 20 HR all but one season, and he has also had 25 or more the last three years. If we pencil him in at 25 HR again and a reasonable .290 average, then his numbers should come close to matching what he missed out on last year. It would not be unreasonable to expect him to be a top 5-10 fantasy 3B. The one issue I see with Beltre is the team he plays for. The M’s have done little to improve upon an offense that was second-to-last in the AL in runs-scored, therefore it might be a struggle for him to break 85 runs or 85 runs-batted-in. If he steals 10 bases, though, you may take a little less scoring and power.