Before we all got fat off of Pecan Pie this week, we checked the position at the hot corner and found that the final tier was lacking and the position was relatively shallow for those in mixed leagues. Let’s take a look at a couple of third basemen that came in just below the fold and could outproduce their draft positions in deep leagues.

Alex Gordon, perhaps because of his draft position or because of the uniform he wears, has been oft-discussed as a figure of projection more than production so far in his career. There’s no doubt that if he puts together a season close to his upside, he will be a huge value to those that select him. At times he’s shown the selectivity at the plate, the power in his bat, and the speed on the basepaths that had people thinking good thoughts. In his sophomore season, he improved his walk rate, strikeout rate, reach rate, fly ball and contact rates. Though all of the increases were incremental, the thought was that he was on his way, just a little slower than we all expected. Then came the hip surgery.

With his struggles after his return, where is Gordon now? On the good side of the ledger, even in 2009, Gordon held on to his gains in his walk rate, reach rate, and contact rates. He took a little step back in his strikeout rate, didn’t hit any line drives, and hit a few too many ground balls. If we blame the line drives and lack of power on the hip injury – not everyone can heal as well as Alex Rodriguez, who also had the surgery earlier than Gordon and also struggled in the early goings in 2009 – then we can regain some of our optimism about the young Royal third baseman. Bill James, ever the optimist, has Gordon down for .272 with 20 home runs and 12 stolen bases. If you are willing to blame the hip, you can take a chance on those numbers and get them for cheap in 2010.

Andy LaRoche is another once-hot prospect that has struggled so far in the big leagues and finds himself on the fringe in positional rankings once again. Of course, his big league team won’t be complaining any time soon – with his good defense (+3.9 UZR/150 career at third) and passable offense (.324 wOBA), he’s already outproducing his cost. And knowing that the Bucs are likely happy with his production is valuable – at least he should stick all year. But will fantasy owners want his stats all year? His fantasy stats (.258, 12 home runs, three stolen bases) were underwhelming, and this was despite his ‘luck’ evening out from early-career lows (.287 BABIP in 2009, .177 BABIP in 2008). The problem seems to be that though he has decent walk and strikeout rates (around 9% and 16% respectively in the last two years), he doesn’t make good contact (17.1% line drive rate career).

On the other hand, the good news in the numbers also come from his contact rates – LaRoche has improved his zone contact rate from 78.6% to 91% and his overall contact rate from 69.3% to 83.2% over the last three years. If he can continue that arc and get the line drive rate up to 20% he could outproduce his projections. It’s worth noting that his line drive rates in the Los Angeles system were consistently around 18%, so there’s a sliver of upside here. Don’t overpay for it, because it’s clear that he has issues making contact, even if he’s making strides.

We will revisit some of the other deep league options in future posts. Let us know in the comments if there is a particular third baseman you’d like to know more about.

Since he got an everyday gig back in 1995, Chipper Jones has been an institution for the Atlanta Braves.

For a decade and a half, Larry Wayne Jones has scorched pitchers from both sides of the batter’s box. Chipper holds a career .404 wOBA, one point below the career marks of Hank Aaron , Duke Snider and Big Poison, Paul Waner.

Despite nagging aches and pains, Chipper has aged remarkably well. From 2006-2008, he compiled a .435 wOBA, remaining an on-base fiend capable of punishing pitches into the gaps and over the fence. In late March of 2009, the Braves came to terms with Jones on a three-year contract extension. The pact, covering the 2010-2012 seasons, will pay Chipper a total of $42M during his age 38-40 seasons.

On the heels of that extension, Jones turned in an offensive season quite mild by his lofty standards. He got off to a rousing start, but was a non-entity in August and September while battling groin, back and oblique injuries.

Overall, Chipper turned in a .354 wOBA, tied with his rookie campaign for his lowest full-season mark in the majors. Jones was patient as ever, drawing a walk in 17 percent of his PA and swinging at pitches out of the strike zone just 15.4 percent (25% MLB average).

His power, however, suffered:

Chipper crushed to the tune of .267 ISO in 2007 and a still-impressive .210 figure in 2008, but he dipped to a .166 ISO in 2009. That’s a bit above the .155 league average and .157 average for third basemen.

As you might have guessed from Chipper’s batting average dropping one hundred points from ’08 to ’09, his BABIP came down from its near-.390 mark in 2008:

Jones’s BABIP was .291 in 2009. Based on his rate of home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and groundballs, Chipper’s Expected BABIP was .330. Even assuming all hits were singles, that would take Chipper’s triple-slash line from .264/.388/.430 to .303/.427/.469. That comes out to a wOBA around .401.

Of course, one could play devil’s advocate here, too. Jones is going on 38 years old, and while he has managed to stay on the field, he’s just about always nursing some ailment.

Perhaps you feel that Chipper’s bat speed is waning. His run value against fastballs, nearly +2.5 runs/100 from 2006-2008, dipped to +0.16 in 2009. Because these run values are based on actual outcomes, Jones’s values are dinged somewhat from the aforementioned low BABIP. But there’s still decline there.

According to Hit Tracker Online, Chipper’s dingers didn’t have quite the same force as in years past. His average speed off the bat was down a bit, and the Standard Distance of his homers dropped a fair amount ( Standard Distance is the estimated distance a HR would travel after accounting for wind, temperature and altitude).

Chipper’s speed off the bat (SOB) and standard distance (SD), by year:

2007: 104.5 MPH SOB, 404.8 SD
2008: 104.1 MPH SOB, 407.4 SD
2009: 103 MPH SOB, 395.2 SD

It’s extremely difficult to project a player like Jones, given his health issues and his age. The numbers are a mixed bag. On one hand, Chipper appeared to be hit-unlucky in ’09. But one the other hand, there are signs that he didn’t have the same punch as in years past.

For 2010, Sean Smith’s CHONE system pegs Jones for a .280/.377/.472 line. That comes to a wOBA near .373, and strikes me as a reasonable compromise between Jones’s actual .354 wOBA in 2009 and the .400-type mark that his XBABIP suggested.

Jones certainly comes with risk, but odds are he’s not done at the dish. Perhaps his days as an offensive force are coming to a close, but he still has enough lumber to remain a quality fantasy option at the hot corner.

The Oakland Athletics added a former top prospect via minor league free agency, signing Dallas McPherson to compete for the club’s third base job.

Earlier this decade, McPherson was the pride of the Angels’ farm system. A 6-4, 230 pound lefty batter with mammoth power, Dallas has destroyed minor league pitching for a career .296/.384/.586 line. In more than 1,100 PA at the AAA level, McPherson owns a .280/.360/.635 triple-slash.

Unfortunately, injuries have taken a serious toll on his career. McPherson was sidelined following hip surgery in 2005 and missed considerable time in 2006 with a herniated disc in his back.

Those were only the beginning of his problems, however. McPherson underwent back surgery in 2007, wiping away his entire season.

As a member of the Marlins organization in 2008, McPherson terrorized the Pacific Coast League. He compiled an eye-popping .275/.379/.618 line in 530 PA with Albuquerque. Dallas drew more walks than usual (14.5 BB%), while still whiffing at an alarming rate (37.5 K%).

However, Albuquerque is a hitter’s haven, and McPherson’s major league equivalent line was much less shiny. Per Minor League Splits, McPherson’s work at AAA in ’08 equated to a .201/.288/.410 MLB triple-slash .

Dallas inked a minor league deal with the Giants last off-season, but his chronic back issues sabotaged his season yet again. McPherson missed the entire 2009 campaign, going under the knife in July.

Now 29, McPherson still possesses scores of power. But he has been healthy just once in the past five years. In 399 career major league PA between the Angels and Marlins, McPherson holds a .245/.298/.458 line.

He has shown plenty of pop (.213 ISO), but little control of the zone (6.8 BB%, 34 K%). McPherson’s contact rate at the highest level is just 63.9%, compared to the 80-81% MLB average. L.A.’s second round pick in the 2001 draft has scorched fastballs (+1.12 runs/100 pitches), while flailing at anything that dips or darts as it reaches home plate (-1.0 vs. sliders, -1.07 vs. curveballs, -2.85 vs. changeups).

McPherson is worth keeping an eye on, as he could be a placeholder at the hot corner until Brett Wallace is ready (assuming Wallace can cut it at third, that is). However, it’s worth asking if McPherson can play a capable third these days, given all of his physical woes.

Within a three year period, San Francisco’s Pablo Sandoval transformed from a batter struggling to get the ball out of the infield in the Low-A South Atlantic League to an offensive force in the majors.

It’s hard to remember now, but a 19 year-old Sandoval hit a tepid.265/.309/.322 with Augusta back in 2006. He swatted just one homer in 438 AB, while walking about once a week (4.7 BB%). Prior to the 2007 season, Baseball America didn’t include Pablo in San Francisco’s top 30 prospects list.

Since then, Sandoval has pummeled pitchers.

The switch-hitter turned in a .287/.312/.476 triple-slash in the High-A California League in 2007. There were still plenty of skeptics, however. Sandoval split his season between catcher and first base, but his bulky 5-11, 245 pound frame kept most scouts from envisioning him as anything more than a first baseman.

He made plenty of contact (13 K%) and posted a .190 ISO, but that power output came in a circuit that favors offense. And, Sandoval continued to display an alarming lack of plate discipline (3.8 BB%). BA still didn’t include Pablo in San Fran’s top 30 prior to 2008.

In ’08, Sandoval assaulted the Cal League and the AA Eastern League for a combined .350/.394/.578 line. He showcased unprecedented pop (.228 ISO), while punching out just 12.2% of the time. Pablo’s BABIP was an enormous .375, and he drew a free pass just 6.4%. But that sort of batting blitzkrieg from a guy just old enough to buy a drink tends to garner attention.

Sandoval reached San Francisco in August, and proceeded to hit .345/.357/.490 in 145 PA. He posted a .145 ISO, while whiffing just 9.7% of the time. Pablo made contact with 92.9% of pitches within the strike zone, compared to the 87.8% MLB average.

To say that Sandoval was a liberal swinger would be a massive understatement. Pablo took a cut at a jaw-dropping 53.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). He was in a whole new tier of hackery. Sandoval’s O-Swing% dwarfed the competition. Among batters with 140+ PA in ’08, the closest competitor was Vladimir Guerrero, at 45.5%. When you make Vlad the Impaler look downright conservative by comparison, that’s saying something.

Sandoval entered 2009 as an intriguing fantasy option, given his position eligibility at catcher, first base and third base.

Pablo was in some respects a polarizing player, however. Those sanguine about his future saw a guy in his early twenties with superb hitting skills and plenty of thump. Others painted a more pessimistic picture, seeing a player headed for the low end of the defensive spectrum with limited strike-zone plate discipline. Maybe he was just a switch-hitting Randall Simon.

In 2009, Sandoval silenced his critics. In 633 PA, Kung Fu Panda creamed pitchers for a .396 wOBA and a .330/.387/.556 line. Spending most of his time at third base, Pablo compiled +34.9 Park Adjusted Batting Runs, ranking 20th among all batters.

Sandoval slugged 25 homers, with a robust .226 ISO. He obliterated fastballs (+1.60 runs per 100 pitches), curveballs (+3.14) and changeups (+3.78), while being a mere mortal against sliders (-0.53).

While Pablo was far from being some beacon of discipline at the dish, he did show modest improvement in working the count.

As you might expect, opposing pitchers saw no reason to give Sandoval many pitches in the zone. Just 40.5% of Sandoval’s pitches seen crossed over the plate, the lowest rate in the majors by far (Kendry Morales had the second-lowest Zone%, at 43.7). While Pablo still lunged at outside offerings often, he did lower his O-Swing% to 41.5.

To be sure, San Francisco’s paucity of other offensive threats had something to do with Sandoval’s walk rate going from 2.7% in 2008 to 8.3% in 2009. Pablo was issued 13 intentional free passes this past year. His unintentional walk rate did climb from 1.9% in ’08 to 6.2% in ’09, though. Again, baby steps.

Sandoval has a career .356 BABIP at the big league level. Using the Expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, we get an XBABIP of .316.

While we’re only dealing with 700-some AB’s here, that would make Sandoval more of a .290-.300 hitter going forward, as opposed to the .330-type guy on display so far. Given the additional power Pablo displayed in ’09, as well as his modest strides in controlling the zone, I think he’s a good bet to eclipse .300.

Sean Smith’s CHONE projections for the 2010 season are out. CHONE has Pablo batting .312/.356/.502 next year, which equates to a wOBA of about .373.

While it’s wise to expect some regression from Sandoval in 2010, he’ll still be a highly valuable fantasy option. He won’t be eligible at catcher anymore (just three starts in ’09), but Sandoval will still qualify at both infield corners. Just 23 years old, Kung Fu Panda is here to stay as an offensive threat.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen and first basemen.)

These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

To be absolutely precise, there should be down arrows next to Alex Rodriguez and David Wright because they used to be in a tier of their own and now have a little company at the top of the leaderboard. Despite his injured hip, Rodriguez basically replicated his 2008 season and an offseason of rest can only help. RJ Anderson and Dave Allen both covered David Wright and his power outage, and both agree the power should return. The only addition that I have, however crude, is that according to the hittracker, Wright would have only lost two of his 2008 home runs had he played in Citi Field that year. With power and speed, those two still rule the roost, if not as definitively as they have in the past. Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria have joined them at the top and there’s not really much to say other than they just don’t boast the speed upside. They’re still pretty good players, though.

Aramis Ramirez used to be in the top tier. He could still be there. But last year just reminded everyone that he’s a 32-year-old third baseman that has dealt with injuries his whole career and is clearly post-peak. He’s fallen into a tier with some exciting names with risk attached. Pablo Sandoval is everyone’s favorite Panda, but as a BABIP outlier (.356 career, .317 career xBABIP) even his most ardent fan has to admit the risk that the batting average falls and leaves him as a slightly under-powered third baseman minus his best tool. There’s no risk with Mark Reynolds‘ power, but there’s also little likelihood of a nice batting average to go with his power/speed combo. As Dave Allen noted, he makes it work, but you’ll also need to make it work by making up for his batting average if you pick him. Dave Cameron showed how Chone Figgins has upped his walk rates through his career and made himself into a better player, but any 32-year-old that makes his living with his feet carries inherent risk. Plus, he offers no power. Gordon Beckham has a nice power/speed package going, but he’ll need to hit more line drives (16.6%) next year in order to get the batting average up. Michael Young doesn’t have the batting average problem, but he has power that oscillates from poor to mediocre.

The final tier is where the veterans go to finish their careers. Ian Stewart is the only upside play of the bunch, and he needs to strike out a little less (32.5% in 2009, 27.6% career) and hit some more line drives (14.1% in 2009, 18.2% career) so that the batting average can find its way to respectable. Obviously, he has power. Chipper Jones is the best of the post-peak guys, but he carries the most injury risk as well. Casey Blake, Mike Lowell, Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre can be picked out of the same bag using a blindfold. Admittedly, Beltre will cost the least, but getting him out of Safeco may mean that he will contribute similar stats to the other veterans in this tier.

In general, this is one of the more shallow positions in fantasy baseball. In a roto league, an owner betting on a final-tier third baseman is a step behind. The top two tiers offer some good value, but make sure you get your third baseman relatively early in 2010.

At 31 years old, Chone Figgins is one of the better free agents available this offseason, coming off a great season for the Angels. In his 2009 campaign, the speedy Figgins stole 42 bases in 59 tries, while hitting .298/.395/.393. He scored 114 runs as the Angels leadoff man, adding in 5 homers and 54 RBI of his own.

Figgins value in recent years has come from his second base and outfield eligibility, but by playing only 2 games at second and 1 in the outfield during the 2009 season, that aspect of his fantasy game is gone. He will simply be a third baseman in your fantasy leagues next year, making his value drop quite a bit. As a second baseman, the stolen bases and average that Figgins provides were perfect, but stolen bases and no power is not what you should be looking for at third base.

Due to his defense, speed, and on-base ability, Figgins will get many offers this offseason, and will have quite a few teams to choose from. The Cubs could come after Figgins hard, and ask him to play second base for them next year. The White Sox are rumored to be interested in Figgins being their left fielder, but they don’t have the money to meet his asking price. If he wants to stay at third base, the Cardinals could be interested, and he could always stay with the Angels. If the Phillies decide to go with Figgins over Adrian Beltre and Pedro Feliz, his value would skyrocket due to the huge amount of talent that would be hitting behind him.

If he leaves the Angels, Kendry Morales and Torii Hunter’s RBI opportunities will go down, with Erick Aybar or Bobby Abreu likely taking over the leadoff duties. Replacing him would not be easy, with Beltre possibly staying in the AL West.

Figgins’ best value would be with the Cubs or White Sox, because moving him away from third base would allow owners to better utilize his skill set at a position where it is a better fit. However, the Phillies are still a great spot for Figgy to end up, but you’ll have to find power in more unconventional ways then before. He will give you steals and a decent average wherever he goes, with his value increasing dramatically in OBP leagues.

After an outstanding half season in 2008, Texas Rangers first baseman Chris Davis generated quite a bit of buzz leading into fantasy drafts in 2009. Davis hit .285/.331/.549 with 17 homers and 55 RBI in 80 games during his rookie campaign in 2008, causing fantasy owners to salivate like Pavlov’s dog. Davis was so hyped, that his status as a sleeper disappeared quickly, and his ADP rose.

Davis was eligible at 1B and 3B in ’09, and was drafted an average of 76th overall, good enough for seventh among 3B and 10th among 1B. Owners, such as myself, saw his raw power dominating in a deadly Texas lineup, and expected his average to hover around the .285 mark he posted in 2008.

What we didn’t see coming, was a devastating start to the 2009 season for Davis. In the first half of the season, Davis hit .202/.256/.415 with 15 homers. The power was still there, but he struck out 114 times in 277 plate appearances. Davis had always been a high strikeout hitter, with his career minor league rate at 25%, and a 29.8% rate in the bigs during ’08. However a 41.2% rate for the first half was scary enough to force the Rangers to consider sending Davis to the minors to work out his problems.

Sure enough, a few days into July, Davis was optioned to Triple-A. He seemed to right the ship while he was there, hitting .327/.418/.521 in 44 games, striking out only 20% of the time and hitting 6 homers. The Rangers felt he was ready to give the bigs another shot, so they recalled him at the end of August. Upon returning, Davis hit .308/.338/.496 with 6 homers in a little over a month. He struck out 25.3% in the second half (36 in 142 PA), much more in line with his career averages. His power may have diminished, but he still drove in 26 runs in 36 games.

What helped bring Davis out of his funk was his ability to simply make contact with the ball. Before being sent down, he has a swing rate of 53.8% and a 22.6% whiff rate according to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/x tool. The same tool said he swung at 52.9% of his pitches after being recalled, with a 14% whiff rate. His opponents pitch selection remained constant in both cases, and after being recalled Davis put fastballs in play at twice the rate that he had before hand.

It all boils down to one question: What should I expect from Davis in 2010? I think that his second half numbers will transfer over into the start of 2010, with his home run rate rising closer to what it was in ’08. To make a quick prediction, I would guess he hits ~.280 with 31 homers if he holds on to the full time 1B job. He may not get to play every day, with the Rangers likely to call up Justin Smoak and looking for a big RH in free agency that could plug the DH role, but I bet they try to find a way to get his bat into the lineup

Davis will be eligible at first base in every league, with added 3B eligibility in others. Due to a scary showing early on last year, he should be falling into a nice ADP where you should feel comfortable snatching him up and playing him everyday.

The Orioles hold an $8 million club option on Melvin Mora for 2010, but are in no way expected to exercise it.

The third baseman turns 38 in February and hit just .260/.321/.358 this season in 450 plate appearances. He’s a shadow of the player who compiled a .340 batting average back in 2004, on top of 27 home runs, 104 RBI, and 111 runs scored. That season, his best by far, Mora posted a wOBA of .420, which ranked 10th in the league at the time and would have put him among the top three hitters in the majors this season.

Mora’s walk rate has fallen from 11.7% in 2004, to 9.1% in 2007, to 7.0% in 2009. He’s not hitting the ball with much force these days and he’s never really been considered a disciplined hitter. His Isolated Power hit a career low in 2009 at .098. It was .143 in 2007 and a career-high .222 in 2004. He’s also hitting more groundballs than he ever has with a 42.9% GB rate this year compared to where it sat — 36.1% — in 2005. That’s not a positive for an aging veteran that lacks speed.

So, what can we make of it all? And what can teams who might bid on his services this winter expect from the aging infielder in 2010?

It’s normal to see drops in production with age, especially when players near 40. And Mora, for all his faults, was among the unluckiest hitters in baseball last season with a .285 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). He’s also remained rather healthy over the course of his career and plays a fine third base. There’s no doubt he’s capable of serving as a quality utility infielder in another locale, but he may finally be off the fantasy map.

Mora will likely have to settle for a one-year contract in the $1.5 million to $3 million range, and he probably won’t find that in Baltimore, where they’re building for the future and attempting to trim some of their proverbial “fat.”

Mora played 1,256 games for the Orioles, which ranks 10th in the history of the franchise. His 252 doubles in an O’s uniform rank 7th in franchise history, his 662 RBI rank 8th and his 158 home runs rank 9th. “He’s been here for a long time. He’s been consistent,” Baltimore manager Dave Trembley said earlier this month. “He’s been the anchor at third base here for nine years. That should say it all. … He will go down as one of the top Oriole third basemen of all time and he has the numbers to back it up.”

“Is it going to hurt a lot? Of course,” Mora said in October, with the realization that he’s probably going to have to leave Camden Yards behind this winter. “I’m always going to a part of the Orioles. There’s no doubt about it.”

In 2008, Mark Reynolds put up a .239-28-97-87-11 fantasy line as a 24-year old. The RotoTimes Player Rater valued that season at $12.14, making Reynolds the 76th most valuable hitter in fantasy. Only 31 pitchers recorded a higher dollar value that year.

Coming into the 2009 season, fantasy players were not impressed with Reynolds. Not only did they forecast no improvement from the Arizona third baseman, they predicted him to be significantly worse than he was the previous year.

If you forecasted Reynolds to duplicate what he did in 2008, you might pick him around 107th (76 + 31). If you used a 60-40 hitter-pitcher split, you might figure the 76th best hitter to go around pick 127. Instead, fantasy players drafted him around 100 spots lower than those methods. Reynolds’ ESPN page gave him an ADP of 218.9 for 2009.

Clearly, fantasy players did not believe in Reynolds. What did the preseason projections predict for him?

Bill James – .269-32-105-101-10
CHONE – .252-22-81-77-5
Marcel – .260-23-82-78-7
ZiPS – .257-28-89-88-7

Only the James model, frequently the most optimistic projection system, saw him bettering his 2008 numbers. ZiPS had him with a better AVG, but basically the same in HR, RBI and R, while suffering a drop in SB. Both Marcel and CHONE predicted a better AVG but drops in the other categories due to playing time issues.

But even the most pessimistic of the projection systems saw Reynolds putting up roughly an $8-10 season. For a comparison, see 2008 Adrian Beltre, who posted a .266-25-77-74-8 line, which RotoTimes gave a $10.23 dollar value. Beltre had an ESPN ADP of 103.9 for 2009.

Why did fantasy players think so poorly of Reynolds heading into the 2009 season?

Obviously the strikeouts were a major red flag for a lot of people. Reynolds set the all-time single-season strikeout record in 2008 with 204 Ks and he had a 37.8 percent K%. Additionally, he had a .329 BABIP, which seemed elevated with his 19.1 percent LD%. Even the Dutton and Bendix xBABIP model thought he was lucky in 2008, as it gave him a .304 BABIP.

Evidently, fantasy players must have been worried about the strikeouts and the low average ultimately preventing Reynolds from keeping a starting job in 2009. The pessimistic projection systems had Reynolds as a solid player even with 75 fewer ABs. Fantasy players must have figured he would not even reach the 468 ABs that CHONE projected.

The Diamondbacks did have a reasonable alternative at third base on the roster in Chad Tracy. A knee injury was the main culprit causing Tracy to log just 552 ABs in 2007-08 but all of the preseason reports were bullish on Tracy, who had a 132 OPS+ in 2005 and who carried a lifetime .285 AVG heading into the 2009 season.

But even when Reynolds struggled in 2008, he hit .226/.303/.409 after the All-Star break, Arizona kept him in the lineup along with Tracy, who saw most of his action at first base. That should have been an indication that Reynolds was going to have a long leash in 2009.

Clearly, no one saw the 44-HR, 24-SB season that Reynolds enjoyed in 2009. But since the team stuck with him through a record strikeout season in 2008, gave no indication that they thought Tracy deserved playing time ahead of him at third base and that the team did not have a top prospect at the position waiting in the minors, thinking that he was a likely candidate to lose his job in 2009 was a poor prediction.

Reynolds may have broke his own strikeout record in 2009, but the biggest whiff came from fantasy owners who relegated him to the 18th round or lower in drafts this year. RotoTimes gave his 2009 season a $27.58 value, making Reynolds the 12th-best fantasy hitter this year and one of the biggest bargains in the game.

Erik Manning did a fine job looking at the Scott Rolen-to-Cincinnati trade from a transactional standpoint, but fantasy managers might be interested in the prognosis for Rolen’s power in his new address. The same could be said of fantasy managers looking at Nick Johnson in Florida.

At first glance, Rolen should enjoy playing in Great American Ball Park. Though park factors aren’t always consistent from year to year, the Reds ballpark is consistently favorable to hitters. It has a 1.063 park factor for home runs this year, but last year that number was 1.23 and in 2007 it was the second-best park for power (with a whopping 1.351 park factor. In the three years before this year, the park consistently awarded over 20% more home runs than a neutral ballpark.

ZiPS RoS has Rolen down for a whopping four more home runs, though. 20% more than four is not very exciting. Is it possible that Rolen will see a more significant boost in power? His home runs per fly ball have been pretty stable for the past three years, hovering around 7%. His fly ball percentage has also been stable (around 40%), though lower than it was when he was more of a power hitter. In fact, his current 41.9% fly ball percentage and 6.3% home run per fly ball are his worst and second-worst marks in those respective categories.

The power is not coming back. Judging from the comments on R.J. Anderson’s recent article on Rolen it seems the power outage is part of a concerted effort to revamp his swing after his shoulder woes. At least his line drive gains seem for real (two straight years of improvement, and his current 25.2% would only be his second-best mark ever), and that park can help boost all his non-home run hits as well. He still gets a little boost with the move.

Nick Johnson’s move is in the wrong direction. He’s already currently sporting a slugging percentage below his on-base percentage, which is not an easy thing to do, and he’s moving from a neutral-to-offensive park to a known pitcher’s park in Florida.

At least, it used to be a pitcher’s park. “Land Shark” stadium is currently sporting a robust 1.182 park factor for home runs, ranking fourth in that category in the league, and 23 spots above Nationals Park and its .791 number. Is Johnson in line for a 30% power boost? Not so fast. The average park factor in Florida, from 2006-2008, was .91. Nationals park last year played to a .942 park factor for home runs over the full year.

Rolen is moving from an offense that ranks tenth in the league in runs to one that ranks 26th, so he’ll feel a hit in the runs and RBI categories that could undo any positive park effects. Johnson is moving from a team that ranks 20th in runs to one that ranks 17th and has negligible park effect differences. The unexciting conclusion is that these low-power bats will not gain much in their new homes.