Adrian Beltre is Boston bound after reaching an agreement on a one-year deal for $9 million with a 2011 player option for $5 million. Beltre fits Boston’s plan and comes at a bargain price. The Scott Boras camp also makes out well as the player option protects Beltre if the shoulder continues to hamper him and/or he has a disappointing year in Boston. But if things go as planned and he has a good year then he can enter the free agent market again with enhanced value. Now that’s the art of a good deal and a mutually beneficial situation for both parties involved.

Beltre will be entering his 31-year-old season in 2010 and the performance arrow is pointing up. He struggled in 2009 with a disappointing .265/.304/.379 line with only eight homers in 449 at-bats. For the first time in many years Beltre missed significant playing time due to injuries. He appeared in a career low (since he became a starter) 111 games in 2009 as he battled shoulder woes and a very rare yet painful injury to the groin area. The shoulder surgery caused Beltre to miss over a month of time mostly during July and the groin accident forced him to miss nearly three weeks of time in August.

If Beltre’s shoulder cooperates with him in 2010 we can expect him to have a big season in Boston that boosts his prospective value on the free agent market next season. One thing that jumps out about Beltre’s 2009 is his diminished walk rate which sat at 4.1% after this number never seeped below 6% during his prior four seasons in Seattle. This change cannot be precisely explained as his plate discipline statistics varied during his five seasons with the Mariners. Beltre found different ways to be successful at the plate but his Z-Swing percentage (71.2%) was a bit heavier than years past. He swung at more pitches inside the strike zone but the difference is likely minimal or just static but could explain his lighter walk rates.

Beltre’s 2009 BABIP of .302 seems to be in line if not a bit padded than his career BABIP of .293. His best BABIP as a Mariner came in 2009 after the number typically sat in the .290’s save for the aberration (.279) in 2008.

Interestingly enough the Hardball Times BABIP calculator pegs Beltre’s estimated 2009 BABIP at .315 based on his batted ball profile. A .315 BABIP would have given Beltre this triple-slash assuming that all the extra hits were singles:

.278/.317/.392

That looks better but even this rosier picture fails to push Beltre above the .400 slugging percentage marker. I’m not convinced that this adjustment is even proper because Beltre’s 2009 BABIP seems to be in line with his career and Seattle norms. You can use it at your own discretion.

The injuries may have taken the largest toll on Beltre’s power output. Perhaps the shoulder woes sapped some of his bat speed as fastballs uncharacteristically ate up Beltre in 2009. He had a -7.5 run value below average against fastballs in 2009 after always appearing in the black against the pitch dating back to his 2003 season. Beltre’s success against fastballs in 2010 could be a telling tale next season and with a healthy shoulder there’s reason to expect improvement.

On top of a clean bill of health Beltre is moving to the much more friendlier Fenway Park. ESPN.com’s park factors had Safeco Field as the tenth-best run suppressing environment in 2009. On the contrary, Fenway Park ranked as the eighth-best run enhancing park in 2009. That big green wall in Boston also figures to help out Beltre. Leaving Safeco Field may be one of the best things to happen to Beltre. Here are his pronounced home/road splits since he joined Seattle in 2005:

2005 home: .263/.312/.382. OPS=.694
2005 away: .248/.295/.440. OPS=.735

2006 home: .251/.310/.467. OPS=.777
2006 away: .283/.343/.462. OPS=.805

2007 home: .264/.319/.426. OPS=.745
2007 away: .288/.320/.538. OPS=.858

2008 home: .240/.303/.400. OPS=.703
2008 away: .292/.349/.512. OPS=.861

2009 home: .250/.283/.364. OPS=.647
2009 away: .279/.324/.393. OPS=.717

And for good measure here are those home road splits over the past three seasons:

2007-2009 home: .252/.304/.399. OPS=.703
2007-2009 away: .287/.331/.488. OPS=.819

There’s no doubt that Beltre has enjoyed his time away from Safeco field over the past five seasons. He’s slugged the ball with much more authority and his two .500+ slugging rates on the road before his injury-plagued 2009 campaign are downright tantalizing.

A great deal of Beltre’s 2009 success will hinge on his health but Beltre’s still in his prime and he’s going to be in a great environment and line up to do some big damage in 2010. The spotlight won’t be on Beltre unlike the beginning of his last contract in Seattle and he has a lot to play for since he knows a huge season could lead to a big pay day next off season.

Expect Beltre to hit in the .280-.290 range and I believe he’s going to hit 30+ homers next year if he’s on the field. As crazy as it may sound a home run total nearing 40 is not out of the question with the friendly confines of Fenway Park. The Fans (121 ballots cast) project Beltre to hit .274/.327/.470 with 23 homers in 140 games in 2010 and I’d imagine these projections will start moving upward with Beltre now moving to Fenway.

All the ingredients are there for Beltre to explode in 2010 and he’s a good bet to provide great value to your fantasy team in 2010. He will likely be on the board in the early middle rounds and don’t let him get past you.

Adrian Beltre could be your Fantasy Team MVP in 2010.

This picture neatly sums up the 2009 season for the New York Mets. The Amazins hoped to celebrate the opening of Citi Field with a deep run into October. Instead, the club was ravaged by injuries. They lost up-the-middle stars Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, 1B Carlos Delgado and ace Johan Santana, among others, for big chunks of the season.

Third baseman David Wright wasn’t immune to the baseball injury equivalent of “Captain Trips,” serving a DL stint in August after a frightening incident in which he took a pitch off the helmet. But Wright must have felt like the last man standing. Forced to call upon a cast of Quad-A characters, the Mets ranked 9th in the NL in team Park-Adjusted Batting Runs (-28.1). Wright (+24.1) and a hobbled Beltran (+21.3) were the only batters to cross the +10 mark.

That’s not to say that Wright enjoyed a typical season, though. Since he hit the majors in 2004, the 27 year-old’s skill-set has been well-defined: a double-digit walk rate, a K rate in the high teens and an Isolated Power figure north of .200. Here are some of Wright’s key stats from 2005 (his first full year as a starter) to 2009. One of these things is not like the other:

2005: 11.1 BB%, 19.7 K%, .217 ISO, .343 BABIP
2006: 10.2 BB%, 19.4 K%, .220 ISO, .350 BABIP
2007: 13.5 BB%, 19 K%, .222 ISO, .362 BABIP
2008: 13.1 BB%, 18.8 K%, .232 ISO, .328 BABIP
2009: 12.2 BB%, 26.2 K%, .140 ISO, .400 BABIP

From 2005-2008, Wright was a metronome at the plate. But his ’09 season was just bizarre. His punch out rate increased considerably, his power output took a dive, and his BABIP was obscenely, unsustainably high.

That .400 BABIP was by far the highest mark in the majors. Among batters with 500+ PA, Ichiro Suzuki was second at a distant .384.

Wright does have the attributes of a high-BABIP hitter. He works the count well, possesses decent speed and has generally hit for a lot of power. His career BABIP is .350, and his Expected BABIP (xBABIP) in 2009 was .346. But even so, no one can keep up a mark that high. Wright had the third-largest split between his BABIP and xBABIP among hitters in ’09.

How goofy was Wright’s performance on balls put in play? Here are his batted ball numbers from this past season, compared to his career averages and the NL average in 2009 (data from Baseball-Reference).

Wright has generally hit for a better average on grounders than most, but that 2009 figure is ridiculously high.

He didn’t hit for near as much power when he lofted the ball or hit a line drive. Wright didn’t pull the ball quite as much, and when he did, he didn’t produce the same forceful contact. He fared better on balls up the middle (due to a big spike in batting average), but his opposite-field slugging suffered, too:

(Data also from Baseball-Reference)

Overall, Wright cracked just 10 home runs, with a 6.9 HR/FB% that pales in comparison to his near-14 percent career average.

Citi Field likely didn’t do Wright any favors. Greg Rybarczyk of Hit Tracker Online has a fantastic article in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 that takes an in-depth look at Citi’s dimensions and how the switch from Shea Stadium to Citi Field affected various hitters. Rybarczyk concluded that Wright was the most negatively affected batter. According to Rybarczyk’s research, Wright had nine would-be homers become seven extra-base hits, one single and one out due to a “combination of deeper and taller fences”. Had those balls left the yard, Wright’s slugging percentage would have been .482 instead of .447.

Trip Somers Pitch F/X Blog has Wright’s 2009 spray chart. You can see some near misses here:

David also whiffed more often that he usually does. Those extra K’s are reflected in his plate discipline stats. Wright made contact with 87 percent of pitches within the strike zone in 2009, compared to an 89% career average (87-88% MLB average). His overall contact rate dipped to 80.4% (83.2% career average, 80-81% MLB average).

Courtesy of Somers’ Pitch F/X site, we can see that Wright’s extra swings and misses came against fastballs:

Wright’s whiff rate by pitch, 2008-2009

He saw a few more fastballs than usual in 2009: 62.6 percent, compared to a 60.8% career average. Wright didn’t whap those pitches with the same force. While still a quality fastball hitter in ’09, Wright was +0.69 runs above average per 100 pitches, well short of his career +1.55 run/100 mark.

Wright had an all-around wacky year. Going forward, it’s best to expect a lot of these Twilight Zone numbers to more closely resemble his career averages. In 2010, Wright will likely have a much lower BABIP, fewer whiffs and a higher ISO. Here are his projections for next season:

CHONE: .305/.391/.502, .197 ISO, 19.1 K%
ZiPS: .307/.396/.507, .200 ISO, 20 K%
Bill James: .302/.393/.499, .197 ISO, 22.4 K%
The Fans: .310/.398/.513, .203 ISO, 20.4 K%

David Wright should still be near the top of draft boards. It’s very likely that he’ll hit with more authority next year, giving owners his typical blend of power and speed.

In a shocking turn of events, the San Francisco Giants recently signed a 30-something free agent to help fill a void in the lineup. An unpredictable one, that Brian Sabean. Mark DeRosa, 35 in February, will likely man the hot corner for the Giants on most nights, shifting Pablo Sandoval to first base.

After reportedly seeking a three-year deal worth as much as $27 million total, DeRosa had to settle for a milder two-year, $12 pact with San Francisco. The University of Pennsylvania product once was an obscure utility man with the Atlanta Braves, posting a combined 81 wRC+ from 1998 to 2004 (his park and league-adjusted offense was 19 percent worse than average).

However, DeRosa emerged as the Swiss Army Knife of ball players with the Texas Rangers. He didn’t play a whole lot in 2005, with a wRC+ of 102 in 166 plate appearances. But the righty batter was penciled into the lineup card daily in 2006, posting a 108 wRC+ while bouncing around the diamond (second base, third base and right field, with a few cameos at shortstop, first base and left field).

Those contributions helped land DeRosa a three-year, $13M deal with the Chicago Cubs prior to the 2007 season. He replicated his Lone Star State production in the Windy City in ’07, with another 108 wRC+ season while playing every position on the diamond at some point, save for catcher and center field (he spent most of his time at 3B and 2B).

2008 would be a career year for DeRosa, who bopped to the tune of a 128 wRC+ while doing his usual “wherever ya need me, skip” act in the field. He walked in a career-high 12.4 percent of his PA, compiling a .196 ISO to boot.

After the season, the Cubs shipped DeRosa to the Cleveland Indians for a package of young arms including Christopher Archer, John Gaub and Jeff Stevens. With the team’s playoffs aspirations obliterated by mid-season, however, the Tribe dealt DeRosa to the St. Louis Cardinals in late June for relief prospects Chris Perez and Jesse Todd.

DeRosa suffered a left wrist injury in ’09, serving a DL stint for a torn tendon sheath just after being acquired by the Cards. He played through the ailment once he was activated in mid-July. Overall, DeRosa batted .250/.319/.433 in 576 PA, with a 101 wRC+. Despite the bum wrist, he actually retained much of his power stroke, posting a .183 ISO on the season.

His plate discipline wasn’t as sharp, though. Perhaps it was the wrist injury, as such maladies sap a player’s bat control. Or maybe it was just the normal decline we expect to see in a mid-30’s player coming off of career-best campaigns. Whatever the cause, DeRosa took a cut at more pitches off the plate, swung at fewer offerings within the strike zone and made less contact:

2007
19.5 Outside-Swing%, 71.3 Z-Swing%, 82.5 Contact%

2008
20.9 O-Swing%, 66.3 Z-Swing%, 79.3 Contact%

2009
23.5 O-Swing%, 65.2 Z-Swing%, 77.9 Contact%

(The MLB averages in recent years are: 25% for O-Swing, 66% for Z-Swing and 81% for Contact)

DeRosa should be roughly a league-average hitter in 2010, though there’s downside potential because of his age. He played mostly third base in ’09, but logged enough appearances in the outfield to qualify there as well. Unfortunately, DeRosa likely lost second base eligibility in many leagues (he appeared in just two games at the keystone).

CHONE projects DeRosa to hit .262/.343/.415 next season, which is about average offensive production. Bill James calls for a similar .260/.335/.418 line, while the fans are slightly more hopeful with a .273/.346/.436 forecast. DeRosa is an adequate option in NL-only leagues, but there’s no upside with decent hitter, in his mid-30’s, coming off of an injury.

Seeing that it’s the Holiday season, we are making wishes come true and answering your fantasy questions from our mailbag. Reader Scott writes:

Greetings. I’ve got a tough decision to make in my 9-team NL-only dynasty roto league. Through some solid trades over the past two years, I’ve compiled a strong team, but I can’t decide on my last keeper. We keep 8.
Definites: Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Prince Fielder, David Wright, Matt Kemp, Tim Lincecum
Undecided: Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Pablo Sandoval.
With the hitters I’ve already got, I’m leaning toward keeping Johnson and Kershaw, even though it pains me to let Sandoval go. Though I am nervous about Johnson getting dealt to an AL team. And I’m nervous about Kershaw’s wildness. So, pick two from those three to keep.
We use standard 5×5 categories (Avg., HR, RBI, R, SB … ERA, WHIP, W, S, Ks).
Lineups: 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, C, C, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Utility; 9 pitchers, no restrictions.
Also, each team keeps 1 AL player (any position) as a “DH” … and mine is Ian Kinsler.

You are right to be worried about Kershaw’s wildness. Even though Kershaw posted a 2.79 ERA in 171 innings last year, he walked 4.79 batters every nine innings, earning himself a 2.03 K/BB ratio and a 3.90 xFIP. While Kershaw may have improved his strikeout rate from his rookie year, his walks increased and his ground ball rate declined. The walk rate is not as bothersome as the ground ball rate, which dropped almost 10% down to 39.4%. A fluky 4.1% HR/FB% will rise, as will his ERA. His stuff is electric, namely his fastball. He has room to improve as a pitcher, but it is unlikely his numbers will be as good as they were last year.

As far as Johnson goes, I’d be more afraid of an injury than a trade. Johnson will likely pitch this season for Florida and be dealt before the 2011 campaign. While this isn’t the best scenario for a keeper, his numbers from last year make it hard to pass up another season of his production. In over 200 innings in 2009, Johnson posted a 8.22 K/9 and 3.29 K/BB, earning himself 15 wins and a 3.23 ERA (3.40 xFIP). He understands how to get ground balls, with a 50.3% rate last year and a career rate of 47.8%. He has a good fastball to go along with a slider and changeup. Johnson had elbow problems in early 2007, and had Tommy John surgery later in the season. If he can stay healthy, he looks to be on pace for another stellar season in 2010.

Sandoval is a solid hitter, but looks to have reached his power peak last season. He isn’t likely to do much better than his .330/.387/.556 line and 25 homers he hit last year. But, don’t expect a decline either. Because he should no longer have his catcher eligibility, his value goes down.

All three have their issues as keepers, but due to your abundance of hitters I would recommend keeping Johnson and Kershaw. While both have their problems, your team should be better off. If you can find a way to package Johnson and Sandoval in a deal for a pitcher, that is your best option. You wouldn’t have to worry about Johnson being shipped to the AL or getting hurt, and you would still get to keep two top pitchers to go alongside Lincecum.

Have a question for the RotoGraphs authors? Send it in to our mailbag (rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com) for consideration.

With Christmas just a day away, it’s time for some last minute gift shopping. However, not everything that a fantasy baseball owner may want is available for purchase. Here is a list of items that all fantasy owners want, but are outside of their control.

1. A starting job for Scott Podsednik

Steals are always a problem in fantasy baseball. But if Scott Podsednik can find a starting job this offseason, there may be one more source of steals out on the market. In 587 trips to the plate for the White Sox last year, Podsednik stole 30 bases in 43 attempts, and hit .304 with 75 runs scored. Now that the White Sox have acquired Juan Pierre, Podsednik is out of a gig. Surely someone will have a home for the man who stole 70 bags in 2004, but will that home include a starting gig? One can only dream.

2. Russell Martin to get his act together

In 2007, Martin hit .293 with 19 homers and 21 steals, making him one of the most hyped catchers going into 2008. He took a small step back in ’08, hitting .280 with 13 homers and 18 steals. While it was a down year, he was still well liked going into drafts last year. But, in 2009, he hit .250 with 7 homers and 11 steals, making his fantasy season a forgetful one. To be fair to Martin, his line drive rate has increased in both 2008 and 2009, and his .285 BABIP in ’09 says he should bounce back in 2010. But, the loss of power is concerning, even if he can post a solid average and steal some bases.

3. Adrian Beltre to sign with the Red Sox

With the Mike Lowell deal falling through (for now), this looks like a pipe dream. He never got along with Safeco field, never hitting more than 26 homers in his 5 years in Seattle. If he moves to Fenway, one can only imagine the numbers he would put up. I’d be willing to bet on a 30 HR, .280 year from the third baseman.

What else would you like for Christmas this year that you can’t control?

After playing 58 games at catcher in 2008, Brandon Inge finally seems to have settled into a full time third base role. Before 2008, he had not played a game at catcher since 2004. Last year, as a full time third baseman, Inge hit .230/.314/.406. As for his platoon splits, he hit .243/.361/.493 against lefties, and .225/.298/.377 against righties. He also hit 27 homers, drove in 84 runs and scored 71 runs.

Inge started his 2009 season on a high note, hitting .268/.360/.515 before the All-Star break. However, knee issues bothered him and he hit only .186/.260/.281 in the second half of the year. 21 of his 27 homers came in the first half, when he had a .304 BABIP. His BABIP in the second half of the year was down to .247, likely due to his knee injury. He has had surgery this offseason that will repair his knees, and should be ready to go at the start of spring training.

The demands of playing catcher have never been good to Inge, and it is understandable. Crouching behind a plate during games and practices is not fun (my catching career only lasted a couple of games), and can affect your legs in ways you cannot imagine. As a third baseman, Inge has a .298 BABIP in 2553 plate appearances. As a catcher, his BABIP is only .240, in 1149 trips to the plate.

So, what do should you expect from Inge in 2010? The 24 fans that have taken the time to project Inge’s numbers think he will hit .237/.321/.400 with 20 homers. I am a bit more optimistic. I see a .250 average with 22 homers next season, with another 75+ RBI year. Because he didn’t play any catcher last year, odds are he isn’t going to be catcher eligible in your league. As a third baseman, his value is quite low (Eno doesn’t even have him ranked), so stay away on draft day.

Click here to make your own projection for Inge’s 2010 campaign.

For three years now, Brandon Wood has whacked AAA pitching and waited for an opening at the major league level. With Chone Figgins set to join the Mariners , it appears that Wood finally has a clean shot at winning a job with the Angels.

L.A.’s first-round pick in the 2003 amateur draft, Wood posted promising numbers as a teenager in Rookie Ball and in the Low-A Midwest League. But the 6-3 righty batter really burst onto the prospect scene in 2005, scorching the High-A California League.

The Cal League is known for offensive outbursts, but Wood’s .321/.383/.672 line at Rancho Cucamonga was still eye-popping. He clubbed 43 home runs and posted a .351 ISO, while playing shortstop, no less.

Wood walked in 8.1 percent of his PA, while punching out at a moderate 21.5% clip. Ranking Wood the best prospect in L.A.’s system, Baseball America predicted he would “develop into a perennial all-star infielder at either shortstop or third base.”

Promoted to the AA Texas League in 2006, Wood continued to crush while sticking at shortstop. He authored a .276/.355/.552 triple-slash in 552 PA. Wood’s whiff rate spiked (32.9 K%), though his secondary skills remained elite. He posted a 10.7 BB%, with a .276 ISO.

Since then, Wood has pulverized the Pacific Coast League:

Wood’s AAA numbers, 2007-2009

2007: .272/.338/.497, .224 ISO, 9.3 BB%, 27.5 K%
2008: .296/.375/.595, .299 ISO, 10.2 BB%, 26.3 K%
2009: .293/.353/.557, .264 ISO, 8.5 BB%, 20.7 K%

Wood has oscillated between shortstop and third base in AAA, splitting his time between the positions almost evenly in 2009.

In 1,383 career PA with Salt Lake, Wood owns a .287/.354/.547 line. Salt Lake is another excellent hitting environment. While I can’t find park factors for the 2009 season, this Baseball Think Factory thread shows that Spring Mobile Ballpark (home of the Bees) increased run scoring by six percent and home runs by seven percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2006-2008.

Here are Wood’s Major League Equivalent (MLE) lines from ’07 to ’09, courtesy of Minor League Splits:

2007: .210/.263/.370
2008: .235/.299/.446
2009: .235/.283/.432

Penalizing Wood for hefty punch out rates and the high-octane hitting environment of Salt Lake, those MLE’s don’t paint an especially pretty picture.

From 2007 to 2009, Wood’s playing time with the Angels could best be described as scattered. In 236 trips to the plate, he has batted just .192/.222/.313. He has walked in 3% of his PA, while striking out 33 percent. Wood’s outside-swing percentage is near 37 percent (25% MLB average), with a 68.5% contact rate (80-81% MLB average).

Those numbers are ugly. But let’s not bury the guy for a couple hundred bad PA’s split over a three-year period. Now that third base appears to be his for the taking, what can Wood provide fantasy owners in 2010?

Sean Smith’s CHONE projects a .242/.304/.434 line next season, which equates to a WOBA of about .319. The fans are a bit more optimistic, envisioning a .257/.315/.450 performance (.331 wOBA). Per Baseball Prospectus, Wood’s 2009 line in AAA translates to a .249/.308/.479 MLB triple-slash (.336 wOBA). For comparison, the average MLB third baseman hit .265/.335/.421 in 2009 (.332 wOBA).

Turning 25 in March, Wood doesn’t as a major league star any more. His low contact rate and average plate discipline make it difficult to envision an OBP above the big league average (.333 in 2009).

But don’t write him off as a bust, either. Wood possesses ample pop, and he’s not a total hacker at the plate. Baseball Prospectus’ peak translation for Wood (which attempts to forecast a player’s top performance level in the majors) is .256/.319/.513 (.354 wOBA).

Wood’s star no longer shines brilliantly. However, he’s still capable of being a solid starter in the majors. That may be disappointing to those who hoped for a franchise player, but Wood is worth targeting in A.L.-only and keeper leagues.

As a Chicago Cub, Jake Fox was a swing-from-the-heels slugger without a defensive home.

The 6-0, 210 pound Fox roamed around the diamond in the minors, logging time at catcher, first base, the outfield corners and third base.

But the Cubs are set at the infield corners with Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee. Alfonso Soriano, he of bum wheels and -0.7 WAR in 2009 (only five years and $90M left on that contract!), will patrol left field. Kosuke Fukudome could shift back to right field in 2010 if Chicago adds a center fielder. And, Fox hasn’t really been taken seriously as a backstop.

As such, a trade to the A.L. seemed likely. Yesterday, Fox was indeed shipped to the Junior Circuit. The Oakland A’s acquired the 27 year-old righty batter and IF Aaron Miles for RHPs Jeff Gray and Ronny Morla and OF Matt Spencer.

Fox famously went all Babe Ruth on the Pacific Coast League in 2009, blasting 17 HR and posting a .409/.495/.841 line in 194 PA. The University of Michigan product holds a career .293/.357/.528 triple-slash in the minors, with a .235 ISO. Fox has mostly hacked and asked questions later, walking in 6.9% of his plate appearances.

With the Cubs in desperate need of some offensive thump, Fox logged 241 PA in the big leagues while shuffling between third base, the outfield corners, and first base (he logged a few innings at catcher, too). He compiled a .259/.311/.468 line, popping 11 homers with a .208 ISO.

Fox remained ultra-aggressive, chasing 37.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). He also took a cut at 77.8% of in-zone offerings, compared to the 66% major league average. His 56.7% swing rate ranked in the top 10 in the majors among batters with 240+ PA. Fox walked in just 6.1% of his PA.

It’s not a good idea to put too much stock in less than half a season’s worth of pitch data, but Fox was greeted with plenty of off-speed stuff in 2009. Big league pitchers tossed him a fastball just 44.5% of the time, the lowest percentage among hitters with 240+ PA. Chicago’s 3rd round pick in the ’03 draft hammered heaters (+0.51 runs/100), while posting negative run values vs. curves, sliders and changeups.

Now in Oakland, Fox could figure into the competition for AB’s at DH and third base. Jack Cust, coming off of a .342 wOBA season, is a possible trade/non-tender candidate. Fox’s qualifications at third are suspect. But with Eric Chavez and Dallas McPherson his primary competition (assuming Brett Wallace opens the year in the minors), Fox could hold an advantage by simply being ambulatory.

For 2010, Bill James projects a whopping .284/.339/.546 line for Fox in limited playing time. That strikes me as wildly optimistic. CHONE’s forecast appears much more reasonable, with a projected .257/.316/.452 performance. Fox’s power and newfound opportunity in Oakland make him a more appealing fantasy target. Just don’t get too giddy over a couple dominant months in the cornfields of Iowa.

Baseball is a peculiar, charming sport. No matter how many scouting reports you scour or how many numbers you crunch, a player still occasionally comes out of nowhere and makes you say, “who is that?”

In 2009, Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Casey McGehee was one of those players to emerge from Quad-A anonymity.

A 10th-round pick of the Chicago Cubs in the 2003 draft, McGehee was McBoring during his minor league career:

McGehee’s career offensive numbers, by level:

Low-A: .272/.302/.391, 3.9 BB% 17.8 K%
High-A: .261/.310/.394, 6.7 BB%, 14.1 K%
Double-A: .286/.347/.422, 8.9 BB%, 14.7 K%
Triple-A: .282/.335/.410, 7.3 BB%, 14.7 K%

Sure, the righty batter’s numbers improved as he ascended toward the majors. He also dabbled at catcher, second base and first, while spending most of his time at the hot corner. But McGehee looked like a yawn-inspiring infield reserve.

In 2007, McGehee hit .273/.338/.422 in AA. That translated to a .226/.277/.333 triple-slash in the majors, according to Minor League Splits. In 2008, he turned in a .296/.345/.429 line in AAA. Casey’s work in Iowa equated to an unmighty .242/.282/.341 big league showing.

Following an ’08 season in which he got a cup of coffee with the Cubs, McGehee was claimed off waivers by the Brewers. While he wasn’t supposed to be anything more than a depth acquisition, McGehee saw extensive time with the Brew Crew in 2009.

In 394 PA, McGehee compiled a .301/.360/.499 line and a .367 wOBA. The 6-1, 195 pound batter, owner of a career .130 minor league ISO, posted a .197 ISO with Milwaukee. After walking in 7.4 percent of his PA on the farm, McGehee took ball four 8.7 percent in the majors.

He crushed fastballs (+0.82 runs/100 pitches) and changeups (+1.92), while finding big league breaking balls to be more of a challenge (-0.03 for the slider, -0.61 for the curveball). McGehee displayed a rather patient approach, swinging at pitches tossed out of the strike zone 20.1 percent of the time (25% MLB average).

Heading into 2010, fantasy owners should cast a skeptical eye toward McGehee’s offensive feats. His rookie campaign with Milwaukee far surpassed anything that he accomplished in the minors. It’s possible that McGehee has made wholesale improvements in his game, but it would be wise to expect some regression.

The 26 year-old had a .335 BABIP in 2009, compared to a .305 Expected BABIP and a career .319 BABIP in the minors. Bill James foresees a .272/.328/.429 line next year, with a .332 wOBA. CHONE projects a .264/.326/.412 performance (.324 wOBA) in 2010.

McGehee dealt with a bum right knee toward the end of the 2009 season and had arthroscopic surgery in October. However, GM Doug Melvin said that the Cubs castoff “has taken the bull by the horns” in the competition for the third base job.

Lefty-hitting Mat Gamel figures to be the superior hitter (.356 projected wOBA from Bill James and .324 from CHONE). But his third base D is considered cover-your-eyes bad. McGehee rated poorly in a small sample of playing time in ’09, but his minor league numbers suggest he’s average with the leather.

Casey McGehee should be on radar screens, given Milwaukee’s apparent preference to open the season with him at third base. However, it’s worth remembering that Casey’s suddenly mighty bat was silent for many years in the minor leagues. It wouldn’t be surprising if McGehee’s second act comes up short of his initial Milwaukee mashing.

Before we all got fat off of Pecan Pie this week, we checked the position at the hot corner and found that the final tier was lacking and the position was relatively shallow for those in mixed leagues. Let’s take a look at a couple of third basemen that came in just below the fold and could outproduce their draft positions in deep leagues.

Alex Gordon, perhaps because of his draft position or because of the uniform he wears, has been oft-discussed as a figure of projection more than production so far in his career. There’s no doubt that if he puts together a season close to his upside, he will be a huge value to those that select him. At times he’s shown the selectivity at the plate, the power in his bat, and the speed on the basepaths that had people thinking good thoughts. In his sophomore season, he improved his walk rate, strikeout rate, reach rate, fly ball and contact rates. Though all of the increases were incremental, the thought was that he was on his way, just a little slower than we all expected. Then came the hip surgery.

With his struggles after his return, where is Gordon now? On the good side of the ledger, even in 2009, Gordon held on to his gains in his walk rate, reach rate, and contact rates. He took a little step back in his strikeout rate, didn’t hit any line drives, and hit a few too many ground balls. If we blame the line drives and lack of power on the hip injury – not everyone can heal as well as Alex Rodriguez, who also had the surgery earlier than Gordon and also struggled in the early goings in 2009 – then we can regain some of our optimism about the young Royal third baseman. Bill James, ever the optimist, has Gordon down for .272 with 20 home runs and 12 stolen bases. If you are willing to blame the hip, you can take a chance on those numbers and get them for cheap in 2010.

Andy LaRoche is another once-hot prospect that has struggled so far in the big leagues and finds himself on the fringe in positional rankings once again. Of course, his big league team won’t be complaining any time soon – with his good defense (+3.9 UZR/150 career at third) and passable offense (.324 wOBA), he’s already outproducing his cost. And knowing that the Bucs are likely happy with his production is valuable – at least he should stick all year. But will fantasy owners want his stats all year? His fantasy stats (.258, 12 home runs, three stolen bases) were underwhelming, and this was despite his ‘luck’ evening out from early-career lows (.287 BABIP in 2009, .177 BABIP in 2008). The problem seems to be that though he has decent walk and strikeout rates (around 9% and 16% respectively in the last two years), he doesn’t make good contact (17.1% line drive rate career).

On the other hand, the good news in the numbers also come from his contact rates – LaRoche has improved his zone contact rate from 78.6% to 91% and his overall contact rate from 69.3% to 83.2% over the last three years. If he can continue that arc and get the line drive rate up to 20% he could outproduce his projections. It’s worth noting that his line drive rates in the Los Angeles system were consistently around 18%, so there’s a sliver of upside here. Don’t overpay for it, because it’s clear that he has issues making contact, even if he’s making strides.

We will revisit some of the other deep league options in future posts. Let us know in the comments if there is a particular third baseman you’d like to know more about.