Once again, these are your rankings for third baseman. All wOBA numbers are based on FANS projections, unless otherwise noted.

Big Three:
Alex Rodriguez (.418 wOBA)
Evan Longoria (.386)
David Wright (.395)

I’m very high on Wright this year, and could actually justify taking him over Longoria. However, I won’t.

Medium Three:
Pablo Sandoval (.386)
Ryan Zimmerman (.376)
Mark Reynolds (.364)

You want one of the top six third baseman. I don’t buy all the talk that 3B is terrible this year, but it does take a dip right here. Some don’t like Reynolds this year, but I’m not that down on him. Just don’t expect a repeat of 2009.

Wish I Would Have Taken A 3B Already:
Michael Young (.355)
Chipper Jones (.389)
Aramis Ramirez (.383)

I have Chipper in a bunch of leagues this year, as most people don’t seem to be taking a bounceback into account when looking at his value. Young will keep a high average, and for some reason I’m not fond of Aramis. Probably due to his injury last year, and the fact that he’s past his prime.

Eh:
Adrian Beltre (.346)
Jorge Cantu (.347)
Ian Stewart (.352)

Beltre was getting drafted way ahead of where he should go, Cantu is always solid, and Stewart is a nice young player with pop. I don’t love any of these guys, but they all have some value and when put into the right team, can be good enough to start.

Tested and True:
Scott Rolen (.353)
Casey Blake (.339)

Both are somewhat of an injury risk (Rolen more so), but are good guys to have on your bench. Both could start for you if you want to fill up on other positions, with Blake being a safer bet as a full time starter.

Small Upside:
Chase Headley (.353)
Jhonny Peralta (.329)
Mark Teahen (.329)
Andy LaRoche (.340)
Casey McGehee (.330)

More bench guys. None of them are special, but give you some value. Headley and McGehee are both good options if you are in keeper leagues, and McGehee probably has 2B eligibility in your league.

The Rest of ‘Em:
Kevin Kouzmanoff (.330)
Garrett Atkins (.331)
Jake Fox (.345)

I hope you are in a really deep league if you are looking this far down. I don’t mind Atkins as a bench guy, due to his dual 1B/3B eligibility.

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here.

As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Alex Rodriguez, New York AL (.405)
2. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay (.380)
3. David Wright, New York NL (.368)

The top two players on this list are probably no-brainers. Rodriguez is coming off of an injury-delayed season but there is no reason to expect him to have any kind of setbacks related to his hip. I would certainly expect a return to his .300 batting average, as well as 35-40 homers. If healthy, a total surpassing 100 RBI is almost a given when you look at the lineup around him.Toss in 100 runs scored and 15 steals for good measure. And if you’re playing in an on-base league, don’t be surprised if he walks 100+ times given his improvements in that area last season (15.0% walk rate).

Longoria has played two (mostly) full seasons in the Majors and he has produced ISO rates of .259 and .245, which just goes to show that the kid has massive power. He’s also good for 100+ runs and RBI totals. Where he loses a step to A-Rod (in traditional leagues) is in the stolen base department and the batting average. Longoria, though, is still just 24 – 10 full years younger than Rodriguez.

Wright had a pretty bad season in ’09; his wOBA drop from .420 in 2008 to .397 to .368 in ’09. On the plus side, he’s entering his age-27 season so we can hope for an improvement… The biggest head-scratcher is the sudden drop in power, which many blamed on the stadium but he also did not hit bombs on the road (five homers, .144 ISO). He still has a good shot at being a 20-20 third baseman, but he may struggle to hit .300 again; his BABIP was .394 in ’09, which helped him hit .307 despite a huge jump in strikeout rate from 18.8 to 26.2%. Hopefully the addition of Jason Bay will help, as well as a return to form by both Jose Reyes and (eventually) Carlos Beltran.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington (.377)
5. Mark Reynolds, Arizona (.381)
6. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco (.396)
7. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago NL (.392)
8. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.358)

You could argue for Zimmerman over Wright given the ’09 season but I like the Mets lineup better than that of the Nats – which will impact run and RBI totals. As well, Zimmerman is likely to hit for a similar average but he won’t nab 15-20 steals. The nice thing about fantasy baseball is that, in most leagues, you can enjoy Reynold’s 35-40 homers and 15-20 steals without putting up with his 200 strikeouts. On the down side, he’s probably going to hit about .240 thanks to his 38% strikeout rate.

This winter, a lot has been made about Sandoval’s switch in approach and weight-loss program… Honestly that worries me a bit. I would toss him into one of those “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” categories. Too often, an unorthodox player gets screwed up when he tries to appease too many people. Hopefully I’m wrong, though, and he goes out again and hits .330 with 20+ homers. I can also hope that the addition of free agents Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff will improve the lineup, but I have a feeling their impacts will be minimal. Still just 31, it feels like Ramirez has been around forever. Injuries limited him to just 82 games in ’09 but he almost tied his career-high batting average with a mark of .317. On the down side, his ISO rate dropped below .229 for the first time in five years.

After scoring one of the top free agent contracts in the winter of 2009-10, Figgins stands to be a little over-hyped in fantasy drafts. I’m also a little concerned that he’s eventually going to become Luis Castillo all over again as an aging speedster who loses his wheels half way through his contact (although really Castillo had lost them BEFORE the ridiculous contract). Figgins is still stealing 30+ bases each season but we have seen a decrease in his success rates over the past three seasons. He’s also topped a .300 batting average just once in his career and that was thanks to a .391 BABIP. Hopefully you’re getting enough power elsewhere in your fantasy lineup because you’re not going to get it from Figgins (.096 ISO) in 2010.

The Leftovers:
9. Michael Young, Texas (.385)
10. Gordon Beckham, Chicago AL (.351)
11. Chipper Jones, Atlanta (.354)
12. Casey Blake, Los Angeles NL (.354)
13. Adrian Beltre, Boston (.305)
14. Mark DeRosa, San Francisco (.327)
15. Alex Gordon, Kansas City (.321)

Young is no longer a lock for 200+ hits in a season but he’s still good for a .300 average and he increased his power output in ’09. Beckham is expected to play second base for Chicago in ’09 but he spent most of his time at the hot corner last season so he should open the year in many leagues as third-base eligible. It would be nice to see the club give him time at both positions to help his fantasy value, but it’s probably not going to happen.

Jones topped 140 games played for the first time in six seasons back in ’09 so durability is definitely not his strong suit. His offense is also slipping so don’t expect him to hit 25+ homers or bat above .300. Beltre could see some improvement in his offensive numbers thanks to his new home park (and lineup). With that said, his OPS was .683 in ’09. Ouch.

As long as Blake has company in the form of Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, he should continue to see some good pitches. However, he’s turning 37 this year so regression is coming… DeRosa is a nice little player because he offers some offense, as well as versatility. I wouldn’t rely on the 35-year-old for a full-time job in your lineup, though. Gordon is in need of a bounce-back year but he’s already going to be behind the eight-ball thanks to a broken thumb suffered recently.

Up Next: The Shortstops

This is the first part of a series that will check up on injured players and recent injuries during spring training.

– Brandon Webb is working his way back from shoulder issues, and threw 43 pitches in a bullpen session on Sunday. He also threw 45 pitches in a previous bullpen session on Thursday. The D’Backs are trying to get him ready for some in-game appearances by mid-March, but that may be far too optimistic. Arizona has a shot to be good this year, and if they are smart they will baby him along and attempt to get 25-28 starts out of Webb this year. All looks well with Webb, but that’s what we thought going into last year, and continued to think that at times during the rehab process. If he looks healthy, take a shot at Webb.

– Brandon Inge is still going through the rehab process after undergoing surgery on both knees this offseason. Inge thinks he’ll be ready to start the year, but some Tigers officials aren’t as optimistic. Inge is “bored”, and that is leading him to try to come back from his injury quicker, which is not the best thing for him. During the first half of ’09, Inge was a stud, and it’s unclear if his second half was due to regression, injuries, or a combination of both. Now, with bad knees and lost catcher eligibility, he’s no longer draftable.

– After missing a vast majority of 2009, Daisuke Matsuzaka is continuing to work his way back for the 2010 season. He threw off a mound, although the catcher was standing, and also participated in some long toss. The Red Sox are willing to admit that Dice-K won’t be ready for opening day, but it looks like they hope he will be ready to go sometime in the first month of the season. The Red Sox may choose to go with a four-man rotation until Dice-K gets back on the mound, but they could also place Tim Wakefield in the starting rotation. Wakefield is always a strange fantasy pickup, but he could be a nice waiver wire guy for wins.

More injury notes:

• Jose Reyes tripled in an intersquad game yesterday. Hard to gauge a speed guy with a leg injury, but Reyes could be fantastic value in the late second round.
• Jesus Flores admitted that he won’t be ready for opening day. He has shown some promise in the past, but his shoulder problems combined with the arrival of Pudge will kill his value.
• After an early scare, Jair Jurrjens’ shoulder seems to be doing better. He is throwing from long distances and hopes to get on the mound next week. Until I see him on the mound, I’m skeptical.

Fresh off of a 2009 season in which he posted 4.6 Wins Above Replacement, Felipe Lopez entered the off-season anticipating free agent riches. However, with general managers likely anticipating a healthy dose of regression, the 29 year-old found the market for his services to be downright chilly.

Aggravated that he remained without gainful employment for 2010, Lopez canned uber-agent Scott Boras earlier this month. Now, word is that Lopez has limped back to St. Louis (where he spent part of the 2008 season), inking a one-year, $1.75 million contract with performance-based incentives.

Splitting the ’09 season between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers, Lopez turned in his best offensive campaign since he was a Cincinnati Red back in 2005. In 680 plate appearances, the switch-hitter put up a .310/.383/.427 triple-slash. Adjusting for park factors and league difficulty, Lopez’s lumber was 16 percent above average (116 wRC+).

However, odds are that those numbers decline next season. Lopez has a decent eye at the dish and he’s not totally bereft of power, but his secondary skills are pretty ordinary. When he bats .310, he’s a valuable offensive player. But what about when he bats .270-.280?

Lopez had a .358 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) last season, compared to a career .320 BABIP. His expected BABIP (XBABIP), based on homers, K’s, stolen bases, line drive percentage and rate of fly balls, pop ups and grounders hit, was about .330.

If Lopez benefits from fewer duck snorts and seeing-eye singles next season, then he’s likely to hit something closer to his career .269/.338/.400 line and 97 wRC+. Here are his projections for 2010:

CHONE: .273/.344/.381, 97 wRC+
Marcel: .279/.349/.396, 99 wRC+
Bill James: .281/.352/.400, 103 wRC+

New Busch won’t do any favors in Lopez’s attempt to stave off regression to the mean: according to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, the stadium has depressed run-scoring by seven percent compared to a neutral park over the past three seasons, with a doubles factor of 93, a triples factor of 90 and a home run factor of 80.

Lopez has also lost some fantasy appeal by being a non-entity on the base paths over the past two seasons. Never a huge stolen base threat in the minors or in his first five years in the majors, Lopez swiped 44 bags in 56 tries in 2006, and 24 SB in 33 attempts in 2007. Since then, he stole eight bases in 16 attempts in 2008 and just six in 12 tries this past year. His Speed Score has gone from 6.2 in ’06 to 3.6 in ’09 (the MLB average is about five).

Just how much playing time Lopez receives with the Red Birds remains to be seen. Shortstop Brendan Ryan underwent right wrist surgery earlier this month, and he still has a ways to go in his recovery. Though Lopez has a career -11.2 UZR/150 at short, he could fill in there if Ryan’s rehab drags on. Also, Lopez provides insurance in case third base prospect David Freese (projected 108 wRC+ by CHONE) falters. He could spell second baseman Skip Schumaker against some lefties, too. Though he doesn’t figure to see a ton of time in the outfield, considering St. Louis’ Holliday/Rasmus/Ludwick alignment and his minimal experience running down balls, Lopez could get an occasional start as a fly-catcher.

Considering the investment size and Lopez’s versatility, the Cardinals should be praised for snagging a guy who could be a league-average starter at a bargain-basement price. Fantasy owners, however, would be wise not to expect Lopez to replicate his 2009 level of offensive production. As Carson Cistulli said about him in The 2010 Second Opinion, “Lopez is probably a better real-live baseball player than fantasy one.”

Cincinnati Reds signed SS Orlando Cabrera to a one-year, $3 million contract with a $3 million option for the 2011 season ($1 million buyout).

There’s no word yet if the option is for the player or for the club, but it’s likely a player option. Cabrera turned 35 in November, and he’s coming off of a 2009 season split between the A’s and the Twins in which he batted .284/.316/.389. Once park and league factors are accounted for, that offensive performance was 11 percent below average (89 wRC+), nearly a perfect match for his career 90 wRC+.

Cabrera has been average or better with the bat just twice in his career: 2003 (115 wRC+; viva Les Expos!) and 2007 (100 wRC+ with the Angels). However, he did at least provide fantasy players with 20-plus steals a year, and at a nifty success rate (78.9 percent career).

O-Cab’s speed appears to be waning, though. He swiped 27 bags in 30 attempts (90 success rate) in 2006, with a 5.7 Speed Score (the MLB average is about five). Cabrera hasn’t been as aggressive since then:

2007: 20 SB/4 CS (83.3%), 5.1 Speed Score
2008: 19 SB/6 CS (76%), 4.5 Speed Score
2009: 13 SB/4 CS (76.5%), 4.7 Speed Score

Cabrera is an upgrade over home-grown option Paul Janish at the plate, as CHONE projects an 89 wRC+ from Orlando and a 77 wRC+ from the 27 year-old Janish.

Whether Cabrera is a better player overall, however, depends on how you evaluate the two defensively. Janish posted excellent TotalZone ratings in the minors, and CHONE considers him about a +7 defender in full-time duty. Cabrera rated poorly in 2009 no matter what defensive metric you employ, but I have a hard time stomaching CHONE’s -15 projection for him. Jeff Zimmerman of Beyond the Boxscore has Cabrera projected as an average defender in 2010. If that’s the case, then O-Cab figures to be about a 1.8-1.9 WAR player as a full-time starter, compared to roughly 1.7 WAR for Janish. This looks like a lateral move for Cincinnati.

Cabrera should only be on your radar if you’re in a deep NL-only format.

Colorado Rockies signed INF Melvin Mora to a one-year, $1.275 million contract.

Turning 38 this month, Mora played with Baltimore since a July 2000 trade shipped him from the Mets to Orioles. He compiled a 103 wRC+ from 2006-2008, but slipped to an 82 wRC+ in 2009 while battling a hamstring injury. Mora’s ISO dipped to .098 last year, as fastballs gave him fits. Since 2002, Mora has a +0.59 run value per 100 pitches against heat. But in ’09, he was at -0.93 runs per 100 pitches. That was the 7th-worst mark in the majors among batters with 450+ plate appearances.

CHONE projects an 88 wRC+ for Mora in 2010. Going to the NL and to the best hitter’s venue in the game can’t hurt, but his fantasy value appears limited. He’s being touted as an across-the-diamond utility type, but it’s been years since Mora saw substantial time at a position other than third base.

It’s time for another episode of “You can get with that, but this is where it’s at,” boys and girls. This week, we take a look at the heroes manning what may prove to be the thinnest position on the diamond. Where shortstop had such frugal luminaries as Everth Cabrera, Ryan Theriot and Elvis Andrus, and catcher featured thrifty backstops like Miguel Montero and A.J. Pierzynski, we may have a harder time finding values at the hot corner.

As usual, we’ll start in the first tier. You can’t really fault anyone for going big with Alex Rodriguez (despite the hip and the age, 3.37 ADP), David Wright (despite the power outage, 14.76 ADP), Evan Longoria (I don’t see a problem here, 10.28 ADP) or Mark Reynolds (the king of the whiff, 20.17 ADP). Why is Ryan Zimmerman being drafted at the end of the third round (39.78 ADP)? I guess people are suspicious of his career high .233 ISO (and 33 home runs) last year. I take the view that nothing seems out of place for a 25 year-old top prospect with a .229 minor league ISO and a slowly increasing fly ball rate, who is also on the correct side of his peak. Sign me up for some of that in 2010.

The next tier has some svelte athletes (Pablo Sandoval, 44.83 ADP), some slow-footed plodders (Chone Figgins, 77.84 ADP) and some low-contact sluggers (Michael Young, 93.51 ADP). Scarcasm aside, why not take a player with possibly the same amount of risk (and yet bundles of upside) a little bit later than the fellow members of his tier? Gordon Beckham (93.87 ADP) had a good rookie season despite a low line drive percentage (16.6%) that kept his BABIP down (.294), and therefore his batting average (.270). But look at the good side, if you prorate out his stats, he had a 21-home run, 11 stolen-base kind of year, and his line drive rates were much higher in the minor leagues. Even if he just finished out the pro-rated string next year, he’d be an ADP value in his tier. Bend it like Beckham!

Let’s move past mixed metaphors to the final tier. This tier makes you realize how turdly third base truly is this year. You can gamble on next year’s Mark Reynolds with Ian Stewart (131.84 ADP) or put your grandfather Larry Wayne Jones (ADP 134.39) in the position and cross your fingers. The projection systems don’t like the bearded wonder Casey Blake (ADP 162.64) for good reason, as late bloomers are usually early exits. You could say the same about Mark DeRosa (ADP 246.44), really. Who’s to like in this tier?

The answer, in the immortal words of Homer Simpson, is “I… don’t… know.” I’d probably try to avoid the whole situation altogether by drafting a third-sacker earlier. But I think I might take a pair of players from the bottom, and those two might be Adrian Beltre (ADP 199.55) and Alex Gordon (245.03). Some may say that splits aren’t statistically significant, but perhaps that’s not true in Beltre’s case, who has a grand total of 3272 away at-bats away from pitcher’s havens in Los Angeles and Seattle. In those (probably significant at-bats), he’s put up a .287/.338/.488 career line (compared to a .726 OPS at home). I’d just cover my butt with a post-hype sleeper like Gordon, who had been making nice strides in walk rate, strikeout rate, ISO, line drive rate, and reach rate before injury sidelined him last year. I’ll be owning him more than once this year, I’d reckon.

Ah! Let me stop you right there. Jorge Cantu is ranked as a first baseman.

Baltimore Orioles signed Miguel Tejada to a one-year, $6 million contract with $1M in possible incentives.

After a two-year stint in Houston, Tejada is headed back to Baltimore to take over third base for the O’s. The 35 year-old has never appeared at a position other than shortstop in the big leagues, but Miggy hasn’t rated particularly well at that spot. His three-year UZR/150 at short is -4, and John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system has Tejada at -4.7 per year from 2007-2009.

Tejada is no longer the prodigious power hitter of the late ’90’s and first half of the aughts. His wRC+ was 109 in 2007, 92 in 2008 and bounced back to 112 this past year. His Isolated Power has remained relatively stable over that period: .146 in ’07, .131 in ’08 and .142 in ’09. However, his home run stroke is on the wane:

Tejada’s home run per fly ball rate, 2007-2009

2007: 12.7%
2008: 8%
2009: 7.7%

The righty batter has never drawn many walks (career 6.3 BB%), but his rate of free passes taken has gone from 7.2% in 2007, 3.6% in 2008 and 2.8% this past season. Among batters with 500 or more plate appearances, only Bengie Molina showed a stronger aversion to ball four.

As you might expect, Tejada is swinging more often, both at pitches off the plate and within the strike zone. His contact rate has increased. Maybe Tejada is choking up in deference to Father Time:

2007: 28.4 O-Swing%, 67.9 Z-Swing%, 48.1 Swing%, 85.9 Contact%
2008: 34.7 O-Swing%, 70.4 Z-Swing%, 53 Swing%, 86.5 Contact%
2009: 32.5 O-Swing%, 71.9 Z-Swing%, 52.7 Swing%, 88.4 Contact%

(the MLB averages are about 25% for O-Swing, 66% for Z-Swing, 45% for Swing and 81% for Contact)

That combination of few walks and ample contact makes Tejada a Three True Outcomes trailer. Over the past three seasons, he has put the ball in play at the fourth-highest rate in the majors.

While he’s not a fantasy force anymore, Tejada still retains value as a guy who will qualify at multiple positions. His shortstop eligibility is certainly a plus. CHONE projects a .297/.333/.434 triple-slash for Miggy in 2010, with a 104 wRC+.

Tejada’s taking over third means that Cesar Izturis remains at short, and Garrett Atkins will slide over to first for the most part. Which makes Ty Wigginton Atkins’…stunt double? It’s not especially what the difference is between the two. Neither gets points for defense, and Wigginton holds the edge at the dish:

Three-year wRC+

Atkins: 98 wRC+
Wigginton: 107 wRC+

CHONE predicts a 97 wRC+ for Atkins next season, and a 105 mark for Wigginton.

Tejada’s not a bad option if you’re in a pinch at the shortstop spot. He’s on the downslide, but his bat should be a tick above average in 2010.

Oakland Athletics acquired 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and 2B Eric Sogard from the San Diego Padres for OFs Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham.

Kouzmanoff’s arrival means that Eric Chavez and Jake Fox have little chance of seeing time at the hot corner. Of course, Chavez has scarcely played over the past two seasons while suffering through back, shoulder and elbow injuries, while Fox probably shouldn’t go anywhere near a glove. Dallas McPherson, who combines Chavez’s durability with Fox’s minor league feats of strength, also loses out here.

The 28 year-old Kouzmanoff is under team control for the next three seasons. He’s a decent defender at third, but what about his bat?

Kouzmanoff is extremely aggressive at the dish, having drawn a free pass in just 4.9 percent of his plate appearances in the majors. His outside swing percentage was 31.3 last season, and sits at 32.3% in the big leagues (25 percent MLB average).

The former Indians prospect puts a charge into the ball, however, with a career .174 Isolated Power. Kouzmanoff has been a slightly-above hitter, once the cavernous dimensions of Petco Park are taken into account. His wRC+ is 103.

Moving out of Petco certainly won’t hurt Kouzmanoff’s value. But keep in mind that the Oakland Coliseum does a number on offensive production as well. Courtesy of the 2010 Bill James Handbook, here are the three-year park factors for Petco and the Coliseum. A park factor of 100 is neutral, while anything below 100 favors pitchers.

Petco Park, 2007-2009

Runs: 76
2B: 75
3B: 93
HR: 73
RHB HR: 86

Oakland Coliseum, 2007-2009

Runs: 91
2B: 89
3B: 96
HR: 90
RHB HR: 77

CHONE projects Kouzmanoff to bat .259/.304/.431 next season.

Sogard, 23, spent 2009 at Double-A San Antonio in the Texas League. The lefty-swinging second baseman hit .293/.370/.400 in 530 plate appearances, controlling the strike zone (11.3 BB%, 10.3 K%) but displaying little thump (.107 ISO).

San Diego’s 2nd-round pick in the 2007 draft, Sogard has a career .292/.375/.417 line in the minors. His keen eye and quality defense give him a shot to be a regular, but the presence of Adrian Cardenas and Jemile Weeks in Oakland’s system means he’ll probably end up as a utility man.

Hairston, meanwhile, returns to San Diego after a sojourn with the A’s last summer. He was swapped to Oakland in July for RHPs Sean Gallagher, Craig Italiano and Ryan Webb.

The 29 year-old Hairston is cut from the same offensive cloth as Kouzmanoff: ample pop, but few free passes. He has a career walk rate of 6.8 percent, but also a .202 ISO. His wRC+ in the majors is 100. The former Diamondbacks prospect is often banged up, however, hitting the DL with a left shoulder injury in 2005, right biceps inflammation in 2006, an oblique strain in 2007, ligament surgery on his left hand in 2008 and a left biceps strain in 2009 (injury information from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool) CHONE forecasts a .254/.315/.448 triple-slash for Hairston in 2010. He’s under San Diego’s control through 2011.

Hairston rates as a quality defender in the outfield, and his arrival likely means that Chase Headley will transition back to third base.

Cunningham, 24 in April, has now been traded three times during his pro career. The Chicago White Sox took him in the 6th round of the 2005 draft, but shipped him to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Danny Richar in June of 2007. The D-Backs then included him in the Dan Haren deal in December of ’07.

He owns a career .309/.382/.493 line in the minor leagues. Cunningham doesn’t really excel in one particular area offensively. He possesses some power (.184 ISO), but doesn’t figure to be a massive extra-base threat in the majors. While not a total hacker, Cunningham has a mild 8.8 percent walk rate on the farm.

CHONE paints the picture of an average offensive player, as Cunningham’s 2010 projection is .263/.330/.420. His short-term role is clouded, with Kyle Blanks a 6-6, 285 pound science experiment in RF and Will Venable also figuring into San Diego’s outfield rotation. But he could work his way into more regular playing time if Hairston suffers another malady.

Hairston and Cunningham’s departures help clear Oakland’s outfield glut. Rajai Davis apparently has the left field job for the time being, but top prospect Michael Taylor figures to make his presence felt before the season is through.

When you’re playing a deep league, most of the time any player that will start in 2010 is draftable and interesting. In my 20-team keeper league, we have Corner Infield spots on our rosters, meaning that we need to play 60 players at first base and third base combined. No need to remind you that there are thirty teams in the league, I’m sure. Warm, starting bodies perk interest in these leagues.

So we come to the Cardinals, who have unloaded their coffers to protect Albert Pujols in the lineup with their shiny new toy, Matt Holliday. According to Cot’s Contracts, the Cards now have $81 million locked up in current contracts, and some significant players entering arbitration (Skip Schumaker, Kyle McClellan, and Ryan Ludwick most prominently). Factoring in all the young players that typically round out a roster, plus these arbitration upgrades, the Cards have already cleared $90 million in contracts this year, and could be looking at close to $95 million in payroll once the dust clears. Since 2005, the team has averaged $91.9 million per year in payroll. It certainly looks like some young men will get a shot to fill in the remaining holes on this roster.

All of this is preamble for GM John Mozeliak stating on Saturday that David Freese is the number one candidate for their third base opening, and (by implication) Miguel Tejada is probably not on his way into town. What can we expect from the 26-year-old, who is also trying to deal with a DWI charge that was handed down this offseason?

First, the positive. Freese hit .300 at every level last year, culminating in a 300/.369/.525 effort in AAA. As Marc Hulet pointed out in his piece on the Red Birds’ prospects, he was aided by some high BABIPs (.355 was his lowest BABIP since 2008). Another positive is that it seems Freese can do better than his 6% walk rate from last year, as his 2008 and 2009 rates were all higher. He can approach 10% and provide some value with the free passes. Lastly, Freese has posted ISOs over .200 in all but one of his minor league spots. He has real pop.

The bad news is that his strikeout rates could actually get worse next year. Freese debuted with a reasonable number last year (22.6%) but he showed rates in the minors that were in the high 20s. Those sort of strikeout rates aren’t normally associated with strong batting averages. Lo and behold, CHONE has Freese striking out more next year (25.2%), enjoying a more normal BABIP (.391 in 2009, projected for .329 in 2010) and posting a lower batting average (.269) as a result.

But CHONE didn’t account for the young man taking over the job and keeping it all year. The system has him projected for 388 plate appearances, and if he plays all year he will surely clear 600. Pro-rate the power out and you’re looking at a brand-spanking new .269/.335/.442 third baseman with 19 home runs and 82 RBI. I think both the Cardinals and deep league fantasy managers would be very happy with those numbers, especially considering their cost.

Adrian Beltre is Boston bound after reaching an agreement on a one-year deal for $9 million with a 2011 player option for $5 million. Beltre fits Boston’s plan and comes at a bargain price. The Scott Boras camp also makes out well as the player option protects Beltre if the shoulder continues to hamper him and/or he has a disappointing year in Boston. But if things go as planned and he has a good year then he can enter the free agent market again with enhanced value. Now that’s the art of a good deal and a mutually beneficial situation for both parties involved.

Beltre will be entering his 31-year-old season in 2010 and the performance arrow is pointing up. He struggled in 2009 with a disappointing .265/.304/.379 line with only eight homers in 449 at-bats. For the first time in many years Beltre missed significant playing time due to injuries. He appeared in a career low (since he became a starter) 111 games in 2009 as he battled shoulder woes and a very rare yet painful injury to the groin area. The shoulder surgery caused Beltre to miss over a month of time mostly during July and the groin accident forced him to miss nearly three weeks of time in August.

If Beltre’s shoulder cooperates with him in 2010 we can expect him to have a big season in Boston that boosts his prospective value on the free agent market next season. One thing that jumps out about Beltre’s 2009 is his diminished walk rate which sat at 4.1% after this number never seeped below 6% during his prior four seasons in Seattle. This change cannot be precisely explained as his plate discipline statistics varied during his five seasons with the Mariners. Beltre found different ways to be successful at the plate but his Z-Swing percentage (71.2%) was a bit heavier than years past. He swung at more pitches inside the strike zone but the difference is likely minimal or just static but could explain his lighter walk rates.

Beltre’s 2009 BABIP of .302 seems to be in line if not a bit padded than his career BABIP of .293. His best BABIP as a Mariner came in 2009 after the number typically sat in the .290’s save for the aberration (.279) in 2008.

Interestingly enough the Hardball Times BABIP calculator pegs Beltre’s estimated 2009 BABIP at .315 based on his batted ball profile. A .315 BABIP would have given Beltre this triple-slash assuming that all the extra hits were singles:

.278/.317/.392

That looks better but even this rosier picture fails to push Beltre above the .400 slugging percentage marker. I’m not convinced that this adjustment is even proper because Beltre’s 2009 BABIP seems to be in line with his career and Seattle norms. You can use it at your own discretion.

The injuries may have taken the largest toll on Beltre’s power output. Perhaps the shoulder woes sapped some of his bat speed as fastballs uncharacteristically ate up Beltre in 2009. He had a -7.5 run value below average against fastballs in 2009 after always appearing in the black against the pitch dating back to his 2003 season. Beltre’s success against fastballs in 2010 could be a telling tale next season and with a healthy shoulder there’s reason to expect improvement.

On top of a clean bill of health Beltre is moving to the much more friendlier Fenway Park. ESPN.com’s park factors had Safeco Field as the tenth-best run suppressing environment in 2009. On the contrary, Fenway Park ranked as the eighth-best run enhancing park in 2009. That big green wall in Boston also figures to help out Beltre. Leaving Safeco Field may be one of the best things to happen to Beltre. Here are his pronounced home/road splits since he joined Seattle in 2005:

2005 home: .263/.312/.382. OPS=.694
2005 away: .248/.295/.440. OPS=.735

2006 home: .251/.310/.467. OPS=.777
2006 away: .283/.343/.462. OPS=.805

2007 home: .264/.319/.426. OPS=.745
2007 away: .288/.320/.538. OPS=.858

2008 home: .240/.303/.400. OPS=.703
2008 away: .292/.349/.512. OPS=.861

2009 home: .250/.283/.364. OPS=.647
2009 away: .279/.324/.393. OPS=.717

And for good measure here are those home road splits over the past three seasons:

2007-2009 home: .252/.304/.399. OPS=.703
2007-2009 away: .287/.331/.488. OPS=.819

There’s no doubt that Beltre has enjoyed his time away from Safeco field over the past five seasons. He’s slugged the ball with much more authority and his two .500+ slugging rates on the road before his injury-plagued 2009 campaign are downright tantalizing.

A great deal of Beltre’s 2009 success will hinge on his health but Beltre’s still in his prime and he’s going to be in a great environment and line up to do some big damage in 2010. The spotlight won’t be on Beltre unlike the beginning of his last contract in Seattle and he has a lot to play for since he knows a huge season could lead to a big pay day next off season.

Expect Beltre to hit in the .280-.290 range and I believe he’s going to hit 30+ homers next year if he’s on the field. As crazy as it may sound a home run total nearing 40 is not out of the question with the friendly confines of Fenway Park. The Fans (121 ballots cast) project Beltre to hit .274/.327/.470 with 23 homers in 140 games in 2010 and I’d imagine these projections will start moving upward with Beltre now moving to Fenway.

All the ingredients are there for Beltre to explode in 2010 and he’s a good bet to provide great value to your fantasy team in 2010. He will likely be on the board in the early middle rounds and don’t let him get past you.

Adrian Beltre could be your Fantasy Team MVP in 2010.