The Chicago Cubs enter play today at 26-32, with a negative 12 run differential. According to CoolStandings.com, the club has less than an eight percent chance of making the playoffs. While the Cubs boast the second-best starting pitcher xFIP in the NL, the bullpen has been a middle-of-the pack unit (eighth) and the offense places just 10th in the Senior Circuit in wOBA (.325).

To find out why the Cubs aren’t hitting well, look no further than the corner infield spots. Derrek Lee (.317 wOBA) isn’t meeting expectations to this point, but Aramis Ramirez has been the worst position player in the game. A-Ram ranks dead last among qualified batters in wOBA (.231). A consistent four-to-five win player from 2004-2008, Ramirez has been 1.2 wins below replacement in 2010.

And now, Ramirez will apparently hit the DL with a lingering injury to his left thumb.

Ramirez, 32, missed considerable time last season with a dislocated left shoulder suffered while diving for a grounder in May. But when he was in the lineup, he raked — a .317/.389/.516 triple-slash in 342 plate appearances, with a .199 ISO and a .392 wOBA. That power figure was down from previous seasons (his ISO ranged from .229-.269 from 2004-2008), but Ramirez still had excellent projections entering 2010:

CHONE: .289/.359/.502, .213 ISO, .373 wOBA
ZiPS: .295/.368/.519, .224 ISO, .384 wOBA

Instead, A-Ram has a .168/.232/.285 line in 198 PA, with a .117 ISO. His strikeout rate, 15.5% during his big league career, is 25.1%. He’s swinging through a good deal of pitches within the strike zone — Ramirez’s Z-Contact rate is 84.1%, compared to an 87.6% career mark and the 87-88% MLB average.

A .189 BABIP hasn’t done him any favors, but Ramirez is hitting line drives just 15.3% of the time (19.8% average since 2002) and is producing a bunch of weakly hit fly balls. Ramirez has lofted the ball 59.9% of the time this season, compared to a 45.1% average since ’02, and his home run per fly ball rate is just 6.1% (13.4% since ’02).

Ramirez has been bullied by fastballs. Per 100 pitches, he was about +1.3-+1.4 runs above average against heaters from 2007-2009. With a bum thumb, he has been -3.77 runs below average versus fastballs in 2010. That’s, by far, the worst mark in the majors. When Ramirez puts a fastball in play, he’s often hitting feebly to the opposite field (chart from texasleaguers.com):

Speaking of going oppo, Ramirez is hitting to the center and opposite fields more often, with awful results:

Some of Ramirez’s paltry numbers on balls hit to center and right is due to his low BABIP, but he’s not hitting with any power to those fields, either. The thumb injury, the problems with fastballs and his pulling fewer pitches are all indicative of a player who can’t turn on the ball like he typically does.

Without A-Ram, the Cubs will likely rely on Mike Fontenot against right-handers and Jeff Baker versus lefties (Fontenot is still getting some PT at second base, too). Chad Tracy, inked to a minor league deal over the winter and hitting .396/.427/.641 in 91 AB at Triple-A Iowa, is expected to be added to the active roster.

Minnesota Twins recalled 3B Danny Valencia from Triple-A Rochester.

Valencia, 25, might not be long for Minnesota — he’s replacing RF/reluctant 2B Michael Cuddyer (bereavement list) on the active roster. Then again, while Nick Punto has an outstanding glove at third base (career +19.5 UZR/150 in more than 2,000 innings), he’s hitting below even his modest standards. Plus, Brendan Harris‘ all-around poor play has resulted in a sub-replacement level performance. Minnesota has gotten a combined .257 wOBA from its third basemen, a mark of futility topped only by the Astros.

A 19th round pick out of the University of Miami back in 2006, Valencia entered the year ranked as a top 10 Twins prospect by Baseball America (number six), John Sickels (eight) and our own Marc Hulet (three).

Valencia hit well at the lower levels of the minors, batting .302/.374/.500 in 271 Low-A plate appearances and .313/.367/.469 at the High-A level in 501 PA. He continued to show power at Double-A in 2008 and 2009 (.287/.353/.483 in 539 PA), but extra-base hits have been rarer at the highest level of the minors. In 483 PA in the International League over the past two seasons, Valencia has a .289/.321/.421 triple-slash.

BA, Sickels and Marc all noted that Valencia’s plate discipline was rough, and the 6-2, 210 pound righty batter hasn’t done an especially good job of working the count over the years. That aggressiveness at least came with above-average pop in years past. But that hasn’t been the case with Rochester, and he’s hacking even more to boot:

Low-A (age 22): 10.3 BB%, 22.3 K%, .198 ISO
High-A (22-23): 8.6 BB%, 20.2 K%, .156 ISO
Double-A (23-24): 9.1 BB%, 22.7 K%, .196 ISO
Triple-A (24-25): 4.3 BB%, 15.6 K%, .132 ISO

According to Minor League Splits, Valencia’s work between Double-A and Triple-A in 2009 translated to a .248/.285/.389 line in the majors. His tepid 2010 works out to a .255/.302/.324 major league equivalent triple-slash. CHONE (.252/.295/.388 pre-season projection) and ZiPS (.251/.294/.377) forecast similarly mild lines for Valencia in the show.

As a mid-twenties farm talent who doesn’t work many deep counts and doesn’t possess mammoth power, Valencia has the look of a less-than-ideal option as an everyday player in the big leagues. Those in keeper leagues will probably want to look elsewhere, and owners would have to be pretty desperate for third base help to pick him up for the short term.

Pittsburgh Pirates placed 1B Steve Pearce (ankle) on the DL; recalled UTIL Neil Walker from Triple-A Indianapolis.

The ankle injury is a tough break for Pearce, as the 27-year-old was beginning to get some big league playing time with Jeff Clement (.235 wOBA) flailing at the plate. Still, Pearce is basically a first base-only player who likely doesn’t have the bat to hold the position. The Pirates experimented with him in the outfield, but the 5-11, 200 pounder doesn’t cover much ground. The former South Carolina Gamecock owns a career .281/.354/.482 triple-slash at the Triple-A level, and his ZiPS projection (.269/.336/.455, .345 wOBA) is a little light for first base. He’s the new Chris Shelton.

Walker, meanwhile, is trying to revive his prospect status after all but falling off the map. The 11th overall pick in the 2004 draft began his career as a catcher, but was shifted to third base prior to the 2007 season. The 6-3, 215 pound switch-hitter turned in modestly productive offensive numbers in A-Ball, given that he was behind the dish at that point:

Low-A South Atlantic League (2005): .301/.332/.452, 3.9 BB%, 15.7 K%, .151 ISO
High-A Carolina League (2005-2006): .281/.331/.402, 5.6 BB%, 17.3 K%, .121 ISO

Baseball America ranked Walker as the #81 prospect in the game prior to 2005, #43 before 2006 and #74 leading up to the 2007 season. Before ’07, BA said that Walker’s power was muted in 2006 by a surgically repaired left wrist, but claimed he had “the potential to hit 30 home runs a season.” They did caution that he lack of patience could become an issue in the upper levels of the minors, and that Walker’s D behind the dish was a work in progress. “The Pirates might get more long-term production out of him,” BA said, “by shifting him to another position, and he has the athleticism to handle third base or the outfield.”

In ’07, the Bucs did move Walker to the hot corner, and he batted .277/.349/.434 in a season spent mostly at Double-A Altoona. His power improved somewhat (.157 ISO), and happily, he stopped hacking so much. Walker walked in 9.8 percent of his plate appearances, whiffing 17.4 percent. Baseball America again named him a top 100 prospect, placing him at #61 before the 2008 season.

The next two years of Walker’s career wouldn’t be nearly as sunny. At Triple-A Indianapolis, he batted .242/.280/.414 in 2008 and .264/.311/.480 in 2009. Walker popped some extra-base hits, with a .172 ISO in ’08 and a .216 ISO in ’09, but his plate approach was lousy. He drew ball four just 5.3% and struck out 20.2% in ’08. In ’09, he walked 6.7% and K’d 15.4%. Walker also missed time last year with a sprained knee and a broken pinky. The Pittsburgh native made his big league debut last September, but it was with considerably lower expectations than when the Pirates called his name back in 2004.

Prior to 2010, BA ranked the perennial top-100 prospect as just the 26th-best farm talent in Pittsburgh’s system. His scouting report was blunt: “he undermines his offensive potential by lacking plate discipline…Walker has expressed a willingness to become a super-utility player.” That, said BA, “may be his ticket to having a big league career of any length.”

With Indy this season, Walker has roamed around the diamond. He has logged time at first, second and third base, while also manning left field. He put up a .321/.392/.560 line in 189 PA. A .360+ BABIP certainly helped, but Walker posted a .239 ISO, walked 10.1 percent of the time and whiffed 18.5 percent.

ZiPS projects Walker to bat .259/.304/.439, with a .325 wOBA. His future in Pittsburgh remains hazy, though — Pedro Alvarez is going to man one of the infield corners in short order. And While Andy LaRoche will never be a star-caliber talent, he did post a 2.6 WAR season in 2009. If Alvarez takes over at third, LaRoche could be shifted to second base. Should Pedro play first, Walker could enter the picture at the keystone spot. The outfield corners are a possibility as well.

For now, Walker will get a little PT at third while LaRoche rests his achy back. Walker, 24, is no longer a top prospect. However, his position versatility and power make him a good bet to at least have a long career as a super-utility type.

Considering that he restructured his contract with the Cincinnati Reds during the off-season and is now signed through 2012, Scott Rolen won’t be hanging up his cleats anytime soon. But when he does, the slick-fielding, hard-hitting third baseman should get himself a plaque in Cooperstown.

Rolen’s all-around excellence allowed him to compile 62.2 WAR from 1996-2009, ranking in the top 100 all-time among position players. The former Phillie and Cardinal has added another 1.1 WAR to his total in 2010, and with a couple more productive seasons, he should creep his way toward the middle of that top 100 WAR list.

Earlier in his career, Rolen was a prodigious power hitter who routinely put up Isolated Power figures in the .200-.250 range. However, a serious left shoulder injury and subsequent surgery in 2005 sapped Rolen’s ability to rap extra-base hits. Save for a resurgent 2006 (.223 ISO), Rolen’s pop has been of the doubles variety — he had a .133 ISO in 2007, .169 in 2008 and a .149 mark in 2009. Entering 2010, CHONE and ZiPS projected more of the same for the 34-year-old:

CHONE: .275/.350/.430, .155 ISO, .344 wOBA
ZiPS: .283/.352/.439, .156 ISO, .350 wOBA

Instead, Rolen is raking. He has a .279/.344/.564 triple-slash (.381 wOBA) in 160 plate appearances, with a .286 ISO. Rolen has already popped 10 home runs this year after hitting eight dingers in 2007 and 11 in both 2008 and 2009. His home run per fly ball rate, between 5.4 and 7.4 percent from ’07 to ’09, is 19.6 percent this season.

As one might expect, Rolen is pulling the ball more and hitting to the opposite field less in 2010. Here are his spray numbers since 2007 (data from Baseball-Reference):

sOPS+ is a stat that compares a player’s performance in a given split to that of the league average. It’s set on a scale where 100 is average and above 100 means that the batter fared better than most in that split.

It’s important to keep in mind that the 2010 numbers are based on less than two month’s worth of games, so they’re more descriptive than predictive. But thus far, Rolen has been a fantastic pull hitter — 51 percent better than the league average, compared to nine percent above the league average in recent seasons. He’s hitting the ball hard up the middle as well. Nothing much happens when Rolen hits to the opposite field, and happily he’s going oppo less than 10 percent of the time.

It’s highly unlikely that Rolen continues to hit for this much power — if he did, he’d establish a new career-best ISO. But ZiPS thinks he’ll remain a useful hitter. For the rest of 2010, Rolen’s ZiPS projection is .283/.353/.461 (.358 wOBA), with a .178 ISO. It also can’t hurt that Great American Ballpark smiles upon righty pull hitters. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, GABP increased HR production for right-handed hitters by 29 percent over the 2007-2009 seasons.

Rolen’s Yahoo ownership rate is 44 percent, so he’s still on the wire in a lot of leagues. If you’re looking for help at the hot corner, you could do much worse.

Last week we talked about Felipe Lopez coming back and Brendan Ryan struggling. We recommended picking up Lopez because he would probably take the starting shortstop job. Now that he’s back, and it’s looking like that’s the case, we’re the ones looking stupid for not having followed our own advice. And yes, that’s the royal ‘we.’ On to this week’s recommendations.

Casey Blake (47% owned)
Bet you didn’t know that Casey Blake was 36 years old, did you? The fact that he debuted old (30 years old) isn’t good news for the bell curve of his career. We do know that players that debut later usually leave the league earlier, too. That seems to be the case whether that’s because players that debut later need to be closer to their peak in order to be MLB-quality, and therefore drop out earlier as they age because they fall from that peak level, or whether it’s for some other reason. Well, Blake has had a decidedly okay run, but things aren’t looking great. He’s got a six-year low in ISO and a career high in strikeout rate. It’s not luck that’s keeping him down, at least not batted-ball luck – his BABIP is .291. Instead, he’s seeing a career-low of pitches in the zone and swinging at a career high of pitches outside the zone. His contact rate is at a career low. Hmmm… why would you want to pick him up again? Well, because .260-hitting corner infielders with a little bit of power don’t just grow on trees. In certain leagues, he’ll be useful. In just such a league of mine he was dropped. Just don’t go trading your starting 3B because you picked him up is all I’m saying.

Jim Thome (5% owned)
Thome’s ownership levels are surprisingly low for a guy that’s blasted five home runs in only 75 at-bats. The good news is that he’s still his old three-true-outcome self – walking (17.6%), striking out (27.6%) and jacking dongers (.267 ISO). Though he’s also seeing a career-low pitches in the zone, the rest of his swing rate statistics are mostly in line with his career. It seems that he’s in a crowded house, but 75 at bats over 39 games is on pace for about 311 at-bats, and if he keeps hitting home runs, he’ll get more time against righties, against whom he’s done well this year (.280/.438/.600) and career (.294/.429/.614). If you have a space on your bench and can be vigilant about who is starting in Minny on a daily basis, Thome will collect you some home runs for sure.

Marc Rzepczynski (1% owned)
Maybe this is my ‘hunch,’ but Rzep/Scrabble just made his first rehab start today and might join the Jays within a week. Then again, he gave up nine runs in 2 1/3 innings in that re-hab start and Brandon Morrow and Brett Cecil are enough a part of the future and have shown enough this year that they should keep their jobs even when Scrabble returns. So that leaves Dana Eveland as the crux of the argument. Certainly his ERA (4.98) doesn’t argue for his inclusion in the rotation, and his secondary stats are even worse (4.15 K/9, 5.19 BB/9, 5.58 xFIP). Doesn’t seem like too much is in Scrabble’s way. As long as he can find his old groundballing (51.2% last year) and strikeout (8.8 K/9 last year) ways, he’ll be a much better solution. Hopefully the Jays will also see things this way.

Ownership numbers from Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

Aloha, America! Another week means another look at the third base rankings. Just like last week, wOBA numbers are listed as “(Current, ZiPS Updated).”

The Big Three
Alex Rodriguez (.365, .388)
Evan Longoria (.409, .396)
David Wright (.393, .400)

If A-Rod’s HR/FB rate wasn’t half it’s normal level, Longoria would be the top dog. Call me crazy, but I was really tempted to move Wright down to the next tier. Striking out a ton (having a HR/FB rate close to 23% doesn’t help either) is not a good way to go about your season.

Medium Three
Ryan Zimmerman (.423, .390)
Mark Reynolds (.369, .370)
Pablo Sandoval (.340, .371)

After some careful deliberation, I have decided that I would rather have Reynolds’ power than Pablo’s average, at this point. Of course, if you are in a league that docks points for strikeouts, this isn’t the case.

Group X
Ian Stewart (.366, .354)
Jorge Cantu (.338, .338)
Scott Rolen (.359, .356)
Michael Young (.326, .346)

I’m happy to eat my words when it comes to Scott Rolen. I wasn’t very high on him coming into the year (as those of you who bought the Second Opinion will know), and even though his power may be fluky, it is entirely possible he keeps it up for awhile longer.

*Sigh*
Casey McGehee (.399, .354)
Chipper Jones (.349, .379)
Adrian Beltre (.340, .341)
David Freese (.377, .357)
Aramis Ramirez (.237, .322)

Chipper is going to be great in OBP leagues this year, but I’m not sure what he has to offer in standard 5×5 leagues. No power and a extreme BABIP? No thanks, Mr. Beltre. Aramis can’t buy a hit right now, let alone a HR, but he needs to cut down on his strikeouts if he wants to have a better chance to bounce back.

The Rest of ‘Em
Chase Headley (.333, .325)
Kevin Kouzmanoff (.281, .316)
Casey Blake (.318, .340)
Mark Teahen (.291, .321)
Jhonny Peralta (.323, .328)

Alternate group title is “Shaking My Head”. Third base is really ugly this year, which we sort of knew, but it has gotten worse as the season has progressed. You may notice I trimmed the list from 25 to 20 this week, simply because it gets really nasty after these guys, and I’m not sure if any of the other folks are even worth a shot.

We’ll try to avoid breaking any unwritten rules by jumping right into the waiver wire post. Be nice to us Dallas Braden – we know little about this nebulous code of conduct.

Edwin Encarnacion | 3B | Blue Jays (5% owned)
There are plenty of flaws in double-E’s game, starting with the most problematic of the bunch (and source of his nickname) – his defense. He owns a -20.7 career UZR/150 at his position, and there’s little doubt he’s limited with the leather. It may end up costing him time with the Jays as they see him boot more soft grounders. Even with the bat, he’s pretty average. His career walk rate (9.1%), strikeout rate (20.6%), reach rate (24%), and contact percentage (80%) are all pretty right on the major league averages in those categories. But the reason you’d pick up double-E is his power, as he’s hit 26 home runs in a season before. You may then be surprised to hear that his career ISO (.188) is not far above average either (.155 most years). Then again, there are plenty of leagues where an average bat at an infield position is very valuable. So there’s that.

Kris Medlen | SP/RP | Braves (3% owned)
It’s not too often that a prospect follows Medlen’s career path. He debuted in pro ball with the Braves as a reliever and immediately blew the doors off the first three levels he encountered with a strikeout rate over twelve and a walk rate below two. Even in only 69 innings, an FIP around two is impressive. I guess the Braves wanted to see if they could get a few more innings out of their nice arm, and they began starting him. He responded with a 9.0 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9 in double-A. So of course the Braves then called him up as a reliever and the resulting 3.67 xFIP in his first 89.2 innings is major league history. Now the Braves are calling on him to start again with Jair Jurrjens out longer than expected, and if history is to be believed, Medlen can handle the challenge. If he pitches like he has before, he may even hold onto the job when JJj comes back – it’s not like Kenshin Kawakami is using all those K’s on the league. Most deep leagues could use a flier like Medlen, especially since he pitches in the weaker league. Guess that makes me a little more optimistic about his future than Mike Axisa was just yesterday.

Michael Saunders | OF | Mariners (0% owned)
Like with Encarnacion before, Saunders comes with warts despite being named the Mariners’ number one prospect by Marc Hulet this offseason. His 27.8% strikeout percentage in the minor leagues leaps off the page. Also, if you adjust his career minor league line for park and luck using MinorLeagueSplits.com, you get an unispiring .273/.358/.430 line. His .165 ISO in the minors is not very impressive either (the major league average is usually around .155). Last but not least, Saunders showed a platoon split most years in the minor leagues. Excited yet? The good news is that Saunders has shown some incremental improvement in his strikeout rate in 2009 and 2010. He’s also still young-ish (23) and his power is trending upwards. He should play against righties with Milton Bradley out indefinitely and Ken Griffey caught napping in the clubhouse during games, who knows. He will probably get at-bats all year.

Back after a week lost to illness, here are your third base rankings. wOBA numbers are listed as “(Current, ZiPS Updated)”. If the wOBA numbers are a couple of points off, don’t sweat it, because it’s just me writing these things up ahead of time.

Big Three
Alex Rodriguez (.363, .389)
Evan Longoria (.417, .397)
David Wright (.401, .401)

According to wOBA and ZiPS, Wright is wright (intended, shamelessly) on target.

Medium Three
Ryan Zimmerman (.432, .385)
Pablo Sandoval (.337, .371)
Mark Reynolds (.377, .371)

I decided to place Zimmerman above Kung Fu Panda. He’s got more power and the batting average is more than good enough. Reynolds is still cranking balls out of the park, but that’s partly because he’s been getting the ball in the air more often.

Third Base Group X
Jorge Cantu (.350, .341)
Ian Stewart (.395, .362)
Michael Young (.312, .339)
Scott Rolen (.339, .346)

Cantu and Stewart move up at the expense of Young. Cantu is very steady, and I like what Stewart is doing at the plate.

The “A” Team
Aramis Ramirez (.218, .324)
Adrian Beltre (.361, .350)

Yes, America, I hear your cries regarding A-Ram. He’s aging, and even though his numbers say he’ll bounce back, I don’t think it will be enough to be anything special. If you ask me, he’s almost done.

The “C” Team
Chipper Jones (.352, .382)
Casey McGehee (.396, .347)
Casey Blake (.336, .347)
David Freese (.387, .352)
Chase Headley (.369, .335)

McGehee sure is slugging the ball, eh?

The Rest of ‘Em
Andy LaRoche (.362, .341)
Jhonny Peralta (.301, .323)
Mark Teahen (.304, .327)
Kevin Kouzmanoff (.295, .322)
Alex Gordon (.299, .329)
Mark DeRosa (.243, .313)
Edwin Encarnacion (.296, .315)
Brandon Inge (.322, .314)

I originally had LaRoche and Peralta in their own group, but decided to just lump them together with the rest of these fools. Seriously, though, can someone please save Gordon from the hell that is the Royals organization?

What do Angels third baseman Brandon Wood and Marlins left fielder Chris Coghlan have in common? They share the sordid distinction of posting the worst weighted on base averages in their respective leagues (minimum 50 plate appearances). Wood, 25, trails all AL hitters with a .197 wOBA in 81 trips to the plate. The 24 year-old Coghlan, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, brings up the rear in the senior circuit with a .206 wOBA in 96 PA. What’s going on here?

Wood scuffled in a small amount of playing time with the Angels from 2007-2009, batting .192/.222/.313. Pitchers carved him up, as Wood walked just three percent of the time and posted a sub-70 percent contact rate (80-81% MLB average). Still, it seemed premature to write off the Angels’ 2003 first-round pick as a bust. With Chone Figgins Seattle-bound, Wood had a good chance to take over third base. ZiPS, the FANS and CHONE all projected a mild performance for Wood in 2010:

ZiPS: .244/.300/.422, .316 wOBA
FANS: .254/.311/.445, .327 wOBA
CHONE: .246/.309/.453, .330 wOBA

At this point, L.A. and fantasy owners alike would be downright giddy if Wood could come close to those numbers. A .245 BABIP hasn’t helped, but he has been bad by any measure. He’s batting .179/.200/.231, and he’s hacking prodigiously. In posting a 2.5 percent walk rate and whiffing 30.8 percent, Wood has chased 41 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (27% MLB average). The righty batter is down in the count before you can say “Francoeur”: Wood’s 67.9 first pitch strike percentage is slightly more than 10 percentage points above the big league average. Swinging at junk so often, Wood hasn’t made much loud contact. His Isolated Power is .051.

Coghlan, meanwhile, looks at Wood’s ISO with envy. The lefty batter has yet to post an extra base hit this season. That’s right: you have the same ISO as last year’s Rookie of the Year, .000. While he wasn’t a power hitter in ’09, Coghlan posted a .321/.390/.460 triple-slash (.372 wOBA). The projection systems figured that he would regress somewhat this season (his batting average on balls in play was .365), but his bat looked comfortably above average:

ZiPS: .287/.358/.413, .345 wOBA
CHONE: .296/.371/.434, .357 wOBA
FANS: .300/.379/.422, .359 wOBA

Instead, Coghlan is slashing .182/.242/.182. While he isn’t struggling to control the zone as much as Wood, Coghlan’s plate discipline has also been poor.

During his award-winning season, Florida’s ’06 supplemental first-round pick swung at just 20.9 percent of pitches out of the zone, walking 9.4 percent. This season, his O-Swing is up to 34.8 percent and his walk rate is down to 7.3 percent. Coghlan’s K rate has climbed from 15.3% to 27.3%, and his first pitch strike percentage is 62.5% (57.3% in 2009). Considering Coghlan’s showing in 2009 and his history of controlling the zone in the minors (11.8 BB%, 13.1 K%), it’s surprising that he suddenly resembles a raw rookie.

Lunging at pitches that he normally takes, Coghlan has chopped the ball into the ground 52.4 percent this year, up from 47.6 percent in ’09. His BABIP is just .250, but Coghlan has popped the ball up 21.4 percent in 2010, compared to 7.1 percent the previous season (the MLB average is around 11 percent). Those infield flies are near-automatic outs.

Wood has lost just about all of his supporters in fantasy leagues (owned in four percent of Yahoo leagues), while Coghlan has retained some good will from his 2009 campaign (43 percent). For the rest of the season, ZiPS projects a .237/.291/.400 line from Wood (.305 wOBA) and a .275/.345/.391 (.332 wOBA) performance from Coghlan.

It’s hard to recommend Wood at this point, but Coghlan could be a decent buy-low option in deep mixed leagues and NL-only formats. Given his track record, it seems unlikely that he suddenly, permanently forgot how to tell a ball from a strike.

Today, we’ll go with a diptych of guys that should be available in your league. Their upside is limited, but there are reasons to like em.

Blake DeWitt | 2B, 3B | Dodgers (1% owned)
He’s got no power, hits for a middling average and doesn’t steal a base. So he’s got those things going for him. Why pick up DeWitt? Well, for one, he’s playing almost every day – 18 of the Dodger’s 22 games. Another nice thing about DeWitt is his patience. He’s finally showing the patience that got him a .349 OBP in Albuquerque last year, and the stick control that produced more walks than strikeouts that same year. Swing rates, because of their high number per AB, become significant earlier than most stats. DeWitt is swinging less (41.6% this year, 42.4% last year) and making more contact (88.6% last year and 93.9% this year). A 17% walk rate and .390 OBP probably won’t continue, but a double-digit walk rate and decent OBP plays well in the right league and are achievable thresholds. We now have 470 career ABs for DeWitt, though, and a 3.3 speed score and .117 ISO mean that the power and speed don’t look to be developing much. Ironically, someone like a young Ronnie Belliard seems to be his ceiling.

Edward Mujica | SP, RP | Padres (3% owned)
Here’s another guy with warts for you! (You’re welcome.) Mujica probably won’t start, and he probably won’t close. Since the Padres haven’t gone to him in high leverage situations yet (0.69 gmLI), he’s only even racked up two holds. But there are reasons to enjoy Mujica’s game (and name). Ever since he added his split finger pitch and moved to the bullpen, he’s been lights out (his name has always sounded great). His strikeout rate since he started using the splitty over 20% of the time has been close to eight per nine and his walk rate below two per nine. The pitch itself is nice – 3.89 runs per 100 pitches – and it adds to his overall mix in a great way. Batters are reaching more than ever (31.3%) and making less contact than ever (70.5%). Plus, it’s just one of those pitches that breaks MLB pitch f/x, like the Mike Pelfrey split-change. You have to root for a pitch like that.