Archive for Third Base

Third Base: July 13th

Because the rankings really haven’t changed since the last time we spoke, it’s time to take a different look at the third base position.

Omar Infante | Braves | 8% owned

He may not play everyday, but he makes the most of his time at the plate. He won’t draw you any walks, but his batting average keeps him relevant. In Yahoo leagues, Infante is eligible at 2B, 3B, SS, and OF. He is a nice plug-n-play guy if you are in daily leagues and check your roster a couple of minutes before games start. Great bench guy in most leagues due to his versatility, and hey, who doesn’t want an All-Star* on their roster?

Chipper Jones | Braves | 56% owned

In the last 30 days, Jones is batting .307 with 3 homers, 11 RBI, and even 2 steals. That’s a great way to enter the AS break for Chipper. He still has more walks than K’s this year, so he’s a stud in OBP leagues. His back flared up again on Friday, and while it’s going to be a constant issue, he played again on Saturday and Sunday. Keep your eye on him as a trade target if he keeps hitting after the break, or as a waiver pickup if he’s available.

Edwin Encarnacion | Blue Jays | 5% owned

After being DFA’d and sent to Triple-A in late June, Encarnacion has been recalled to Toronto and has performed adequately so far. Since coming back up on July 3rd, Encarnacion has hit .310 (BABIP fluke) with a homer. He has good power, and while he’s struck out in all but one game since returning, he’s a good bet to perform well the rest of the year. He’s not worth a pickup in standard leagues, but in SABR (advanced stats leagues) and deep leagues he’s worth a shot.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues. And yes, I stole this format from Axisa.


Kung Fu Panda’s Punchless First Half

Last season, Pablo Sandoval was a one-man wrecking crew. The switch-hitting, ambidextrous free-swinger crushed pitchers for a .330/.387/.566 triple-slash in 633 plate appearances, good for a .396 wOBA and a 145 wRC+. With +34.9 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs during his first full season in the majors, Sandoval placed among the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard. He entered 2010 as a fantasy darling — according to KFFL, the Panda had an ADP of 37.

Sandoval’s pre-season projections expected some regression in terms of his power output (.226 ISO in 2009) and BABIP (.350), but owners still had every right to expect big offensive numbers:

ZiPS: .320/.368/.516, .383 wOBA, .196 ISO, .342 BABIP
CHONE: .325/.368/.526, .385 wOBA, .201 ISO, .348 BABIP

Yet, Sandoval’s lumber has been lacking. He’s got a tepid .266/.325/.387 line in 366 PA, with a .307 wOBA and an 88 wRC+. Pablo’s usually-thunderous bat has been -5.3 runs below average. What gives?

Little has changed in terms of his “plate discipline” numbers. Sandoval swung at 41.7 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone in 2009, and 43.8% in 2010. The overall MLB average for O-Swing has increased, likely due to the way that pitches are charted, but Sandoval’s O-Swing compared to the big league average hasn’t shifted much. His O-Swing was 166 percent of the MLB average in ’09, and 153 percent of the average in 2010. Pablo’s also making contact at about the same rate as usual — 83% (83.3% career average, 81% MLB average). His first pitch strike percentage is 63.4% (62.8% career average, 58% MLB average). Sandoval’s walk and strikeout rates are exactly the same as last year — 8.2% and 14.5%, respectively.

The big changes are in his BABIP and pop. Sandoval has always posted a high BABIP (.339 as a prospect, according to Minor League Splits) and, as the pre-season projections showed, CHONE and ZiPS expected another robust BABIP. Instead, Sandoval’s getting hits on balls put in play just 29.2 percent of the time (.292 BABIP). Has he been unlucky? The answer would appear to be yes. Pablo is hitting fewer line drives (18.6% in ’09, 16.1% this year) and is popping the ball up a bit more (7.9 IF/FB% in ’09, 10.2% in ’10). But even so, his expected BABIP, based on his rate of homers, K’s, SB, line drives, fly balls, infield flies and ground balls, is .314. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .326 BABIP from Sandoval.

The more peculiar development is his mild power production. The Panda has a .121 ISO, with just 5.6% of his fly balls leaving the yard (14% last season). Here’s Sandoval’s performance by batted ball type in 2010, compared to 2009:

You’ll note the downturn in his ground ball and line drive BABIP. But Sandoval’s power decline on his fly balls and liners hit has been dramatic as well. In 2009, he had a .528 ISO on fly balls, while the NL average was .371. This season, he’s got a .322 ISO on fly balls (.367 NL average). Pablo posted a .322 ISO on line drives in ’09, but just .153 in 2010 (the NL average is .256 both seasons).

The chances of Sandoval faring so poorly on balls put in play and hitting for such little power in the second half are remote. The Panda’s rest-of-season ZiPS calls for a .305/.357/.484 line, with his wOBA climbing to .366 and his ISO increasing to .179. CHONE projects a more potent performance — .318/.363/.511 (.193 ISO).

This would be a good time to buy low on Sandoval. I wouldn’t bet that a 23-year-old with a history of mashing has suddenly forgotten how to drive the ball.


Promotion: Josh Bell

Baltimore Orioles placed DH/OF Luke Scott (left hamstring) on the DL; recalled 3B Joshua Bell from Triple-A Norfolk.

It’s unclear at this point how long Bell will be in the majors — Felix Pie (back) will soon be activated from the DL, and the Orioles claim there’s no connection between Bell’s promotion and a transaction involving Ty Wigginton or Miguel Tejada. Whether this is a cup of coffee or something more substantive, Bell’s the best position prospect in the system not named Manny Machado. The 23-year-old was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers (along with RHP Steve Johnson) last July for LHP George Sherrill.

A 6-foot-3 switch-hitter, Bell was originally a fourth-round selection out of Florida in the 2005 draft. At the time he was drafted, Baseball America commended his plus power and strong arm, while noting disappointment amongst scouts that he didn’t firm up his soft frame. Bell bashed in rookie ball in ’05 and 2006 (a combined .312/.380/.486 in 454 plate appearances). In 2007, he hit .271/.331/.444 in 517 PA taken mostly in the Low-A Midwest League (he got a late-season promotion to the High-A California League). Bell walked 8.1% of the time, punched out 27.1% and had a .173 Isolated Power.

Prior to the 2008 season, Bell shed 30 pounds from his burly build. He got off to a .273/.373/.455 start in 220 PA in the Cal League, drawing ball four 14.1%, whiffing 25.6% and posting a .182 ISO in a favorable offensive environment. Unfortunately, Bell suffered a right knee injury that required surgery, ending his season in late May. He returned to the field and raked in 2008, however — in 518 PA split between the Double-A Southern League (Dodgers) and Eastern League (O’s), Bell batted .295/.376/.516, with a 11.8 BB%, 21.9 K% and a .221 ISO.

Heading into 2010, Baseball America rated Bell as the second-best prospect in the Baltimore system. So did Marc Hulet, noting that former Dodgers pick possessed “an intriguing mix of power and patience.” John Sickels rated Bell fourth in the Orioles’ organization, regarding him “more as a solid regular than a future star.”

At Norfolk this season, Bell hit .266/.311/.455 in 309 PA. His plate discipline was off-kilter, as he has walked just 5.8% while striking out 26.2%. Bell still hit for power, however, with a .189 ISO. Before the season began, ZiPS projected that he’d bat .242/.316/.396 in the majors. CHONE’s updated July projections predict Bell will put up a .244/.301/.398 triple-slash as an Oriole.

Bell’s low Triple-A walk rate is worth watching, though he does have a track record of working the count well. Setting that aside for the moment, two questions remain regarding his prospect status. First, can he play third base capably? Bell’s TotalZone defensive ratings have ranged from poor to brutal, while Baseball America’s scouting reports indicate that he’s now passable after being a butcher in years past. Second, is he really a switch-hitter? According to Minor League Splits, Bell holds a career .300/.366/.509 line batting from the left side, but just a .243/.322/.365 triple-slash as a righty batter. Some have suggested that Bell should give up switch-hitting, with the thinking being that his weak right-handed stroke hurts him to the extent that he’s worse off even if he has the platoon advantage.

Assuming he hasn’t suddenly become a hacker, Bell has the profile of an eventual quality big league hitter. He’s worth a pickup in AL-only leagues, but I wouldn’t recommend him strongly in mixed formats. We don’t know how long he’ll be in the majors, and Bell’s jumpy Triple-A line suggests that he could have some problems getting acclimated to facing big league pitching.


A Pair Of Phillies Hit The DL

The last week and a half have really been hell on fantasy owners. First Troy Tulowitzki went down, then Dustin Pedroia, then Victor Martinez. Now it’s a pair of Phillies’ infielders. The Phightin’s lost both Chase Utley and Placido Polanco to the disabled list today, and it’s unclear how long either will be out.

I’m certain there’s some poor sap out there that had both Utley and Polanco on his/her team, so let’s try to help them out. Replacement options for Utley are the same as they are for Pedroia, so I’m just going to refer you to that post. Meanwhile, here’s a few 3B options you can turn to in Polanco’s stead…

Eric Hinske | Braves | 6%

The versatile Hinske is eligible at not only 3B, but also 1B and OF in Yahoo! leagues. A platoon player basically all season, injuries to Nate McLouth and Jason Heyward have forced him into every day duty, which really isn’t a problem when he’s got a .380 wOBA and 30 RBI. His .302 AVG will come down as his .360 BABIP regresses, but (R) ZiPS still projects a .351 wOBA the rest of the way. Atlanta won’t face another LHP until the middle of next week at the earliest, so you’re in the clear for a while.

Kevin Kouzmanoff | Athletics | 27%

Kouz is a below average offensive player overall (.321 wOBA), but his fantasy totals are pretty solid for an injury fill in (.285 AVG, 8 HR, 39 RBI). He’ll kill you in an OBP league (just a .317 OBP), though. (R) ZiPS calls for .268-10-43 the rest of the season, but hopefully you won’t need him for that long.

Felipe Lopez | Cardinals | 19%

Lopez is pressed into every day duty now with David Freese hitting the DL (guess we should include him in this post, huh?), though he’s not exactly killing it with a .248/.326/.391 batting line (four homers, four steals). Regular at-bats should help get him back in a groove (and help bring his .295 BABIP closer to his .319 career mark), and will hopefully add a few more steals to your ledger. Lopez is also eligible at 2B and SS, if that helps.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


Rankings Update: Third Base

Back, but probably not better than ever. If the rankings are crazy, blame my cold.

Big Three
Evan Longoria
David Wright
Alex Rodriguez

Every week that A-Rod doesn’t show his old power, he continues to lose value. He is still a very good third baseman in real life, but his days as a dominant force may be over. I’d like to see Longoria hit a couple more dingers this week, otherwise Wright may be able to squirm his way into the number one spot.

Large Two
Ryan Zimmerman
Scott Rolen

Rolen still carries some injury risk, but he is really tearing it up.

Medium Four
Mark Reynolds
Casey McGehee
Michael Young
Adrian Beltre

Reynolds is doing everything he can to hit 40 homers, even if it means killing his batting average. Young is playing like a man who is much…never mind, that pun wasn’t worth it.

Sad Panda
Jorge Cantu
Ian Stewart
Jose Bautista
Pablo Sandoval

Cantu is steady, so he’s a good play if you want to know what you’re getting. Stewart has more power than he’s show, or so I think. Bautista will kill your average, but could save you with his power. And Pablo, well, he’s not doing so hot.

I am Jack’s Third Baseman
Kevin Kouzmanoff
David Freese
Casey Blake

If we all try hard enough, we can will David Freese to hit more homers. Blake has always been a favorite bench guy of mine, because you know what you’re getting year-in and year-out.

The Rest of ‘Em
Neil Walker
Chase Headley
Pedro Alvarez
Chipper Jones

Slow down, Pedro. Just do your thing and everything will come together. With Edwin Encarnacion getting DFA’d, I had to find a new guy to fill out the list. I’m liking what Neil Walker is showing, and it doesn’t surprise me one bit.


The Versatile Michael Cuddyer

Maybe it’s just me, but I’m a sucker for flexibility. I love players with multi-position eligibility, so needless to say I’m always on the look-out for guys that might change positions. Catchers that move out from behind the plate are the classic example, and who can forget fantasy owners drooling at the possibility of Albert Pujols picking up 2B eligibility after this game in 2008? Alas, it was not meant to be.

With their third basemen putting up just a .271 wOBA this season, the Twins have started Michael Cuddyer at the hot corner fives times in the last week or so (six counting today). That’s good enough for him to pick up 3B eligibility in most leagues. He even started a game at 2B last month, but it doesn’t look like we’ll get that lucky. When the season began, he was eligible at 1B/OF, two spots with enough depth and generally low priority.

Cuddyer was mid-to-late round revelation last season, clubbing a career high 32 homers, driving in 94 runs, and scoring 93 more. He hasn’t been able to replicate that level of performance this year unsurprisingly, with just seven homers and 33 RBI in the team’s first 73 games. (R) ZiPS calls for a nice little second half: .271/.341/.462 with ten homers and 41 RBI, though it’s not really a standout performance from an outfielder or (especially) a first baseman. At third though, that’s a solid option.

Looking at the (R) ZiPS projections, I count 44 outfielders projected to hit double digit homers through the end of the season, 25 first baseman, and just 13 third baseman. Cuddyer makes 14. The third base position is surprisingly mediocre beyond the top level guys, so adding another player to that mix for the rest of the season is a boost. If you’re dealing with injury or ineffectiveness (Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins come to mind), or just plain old need some depth, Cuddyer’s a solid get now. If you already own him (77% owned in Yahoo! leagues), his value just went up.


J. Hoffpauir, C. Johnson Recalled from Triple-A

Toronto Blue Jays recalled INF Jarrett Hoffpauir from Triple-A Las Vegas.

A former St. Louis Cardinals farmhand claimed off waivers by the Jays during the off-season, Hoffpauir can hit. He’s a career .288/.366/.427 batter in the minors, including a .293/.365/.448 line in nearly 1,400 PA at the Triple-A level. Hoffpauir draws a decent number of free passes (10.4 BB%), rarely punches out (9.2 K%) and while no one will mistake him for a power hitter, he manages not to get totally bullied at the plate (.133 ISO). Prior to 2010, ZiPS projected a .264/.331/.394 showing at the major league level (.323 wOBA) for the 27-year-old, while CHONE had a .272/.349/.402 forecast (.332 wOBA).

If Hoffpauir could capably man an up-the-middle position, a league-average bat could make him a passable starter. However, the 5-10, 190 pounder isn’t well-regarded with the leather by either scouts (Baseball America called his speed, range and arm fringy in 2008) or the stats (Total Zone rates him poorly at second base). Hoffpauir also played some third base with the 51’s this season, and that’s the position where he’ll try to crack the lineup with Toronto following the club’s decision to DFA Edwin Encarnacion. He could have some short-term fantasy value in AL-only leagues if the Jays opt against moving Jose Bautista to third more frequently.

Houston Astros recalled 3B Chris Johnson from Triple-A Round Rock.

Houston’s fourth-round pick in the 2006 draft, Johnson will mercifully take over for Pedro Feliz at the hot corner. Feliz, 35, has been a black hole on a roster full of them — with his normally stellar D rating poorly and his slack bat entering a whole new realm of futility (.237 wOBA), Feliz has been nearly a win and a half worse than a replacement-level player.

Which brings us back to Johnson. To say that he’s Houston’s best internal option at third base is sort of a backhanded compliment, akin to being the most articulate Hilton sister or the most popular BP executive. The 25-year-old holds a career .277/.315/.429 line in 1,800+ PA in the minors. Johnson doesn’t work the count much (5.1 BB%), and he has generally shown just mid-range power (.152 ISO).

To be fair, he has hit with some force at Triple-A this season (.329/.362/.570 in 163 PA), but his overall performance record just doesn’t offer much to get excited about. According to Minor League Splits, Johnson’s 2008 season split between Double-A Corpus Christi and Round Rock translates to a .246/.276/.351 big league triple-slash. His ’09 season in the PCL equates to a .239/.271/.379 line, and even that 2010 work comes to .272/.297/.429. Johnson’s rest-of-season ZiPS projection (.245/.280/.360) is similarly bleak. Even if you’re desperate, you’re best off looking elsewhere.


Rankings Update: Third Base

I bet some of you fine folks are wondering where your catcher rankings are, right? Well, I am alternating weeks with catcher rankings and corner infield rankings. At this point in the year, rankings won’t change much week to week, so this is a much better option.

Big Four
Evan Longoria
Alex Rodriguez
David Wright
Ryan Zimmerman

In all of my updates, the top spot has changed hands. I mentioned before that I was tempted to move Longoria up to the top slot, and I finally worked up the stones to do so. Zimmerman has shown he deserves to be mentioned with what used to be the “Big Three.”

Medium Four
Mark Reynolds
Scott Rolen
Casey McGehee
Jorge Cantu

If I owned any of these guys, I wouldn’t feel too bad. Rolen’s injury history still scares me, but I hate predicting that a guy will get hurt. McGehee is showing that his power is for real, but how long will he sustain peak performance? He’s already 27, so he may not be able to improve anymore.

Surprised?
Pablo Sandoval
Michael Young

Pablo’s BABIP may be catching up with him, but his lowered line drive rate isn’t helping matters. Is the power he showed last year a fraud?

I Am Jack’s Third Baseman
Ian Stewart
Adrian Beltre
Jose Bautista

Now that Jack owns a catcher and a first baseman, he needs someone to man the hot corner. If Bautista was capable of hitting .250, he’d be in a higher tier.

Prospect Alert!
David Freese
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Pedro Alvarez

At first, it looked like Alvarez would be up during this very week, but now it looks like the Pirates are going to hold off. He will, however, be up by the end of the month. Freese needs to add some power to his game, but the batting average is still nice and shiny.

The Rest of ‘Em
Casey Blake
Chase Headley
Chipper Jones
Edwin Encarnacion

Chipper’s latest injury problem and lack of overall production forces him to the lowest tier. He still might be worth holding onto in OBP leagues, but should be on the waiver wire in standard leagues.


A-Ram to the DL?

The Chicago Cubs enter play today at 26-32, with a negative 12 run differential. According to CoolStandings.com, the club has less than an eight percent chance of making the playoffs. While the Cubs boast the second-best starting pitcher xFIP in the NL, the bullpen has been a middle-of-the pack unit (eighth) and the offense places just 10th in the Senior Circuit in wOBA (.325).

To find out why the Cubs aren’t hitting well, look no further than the corner infield spots. Derrek Lee (.317 wOBA) isn’t meeting expectations to this point, but Aramis Ramirez has been the worst position player in the game. A-Ram ranks dead last among qualified batters in wOBA (.231). A consistent four-to-five win player from 2004-2008, Ramirez has been 1.2 wins below replacement in 2010.

And now, Ramirez will apparently hit the DL with a lingering injury to his left thumb.

Ramirez, 32, missed considerable time last season with a dislocated left shoulder suffered while diving for a grounder in May. But when he was in the lineup, he raked — a .317/.389/.516 triple-slash in 342 plate appearances, with a .199 ISO and a .392 wOBA. That power figure was down from previous seasons (his ISO ranged from .229-.269 from 2004-2008), but Ramirez still had excellent projections entering 2010:

CHONE: .289/.359/.502, .213 ISO, .373 wOBA
ZiPS: .295/.368/.519, .224 ISO, .384 wOBA

Instead, A-Ram has a .168/.232/.285 line in 198 PA, with a .117 ISO. His strikeout rate, 15.5% during his big league career, is 25.1%. He’s swinging through a good deal of pitches within the strike zone — Ramirez’s Z-Contact rate is 84.1%, compared to an 87.6% career mark and the 87-88% MLB average.

A .189 BABIP hasn’t done him any favors, but Ramirez is hitting line drives just 15.3% of the time (19.8% average since 2002) and is producing a bunch of weakly hit fly balls. Ramirez has lofted the ball 59.9% of the time this season, compared to a 45.1% average since ’02, and his home run per fly ball rate is just 6.1% (13.4% since ’02).

Ramirez has been bullied by fastballs. Per 100 pitches, he was about +1.3-+1.4 runs above average against heaters from 2007-2009. With a bum thumb, he has been -3.77 runs below average versus fastballs in 2010. That’s, by far, the worst mark in the majors. When Ramirez puts a fastball in play, he’s often hitting feebly to the opposite field (chart from texasleaguers.com):

Speaking of going oppo, Ramirez is hitting to the center and opposite fields more often, with awful results:

Some of Ramirez’s paltry numbers on balls hit to center and right is due to his low BABIP, but he’s not hitting with any power to those fields, either. The thumb injury, the problems with fastballs and his pulling fewer pitches are all indicative of a player who can’t turn on the ball like he typically does.

Without A-Ram, the Cubs will likely rely on Mike Fontenot against right-handers and Jeff Baker versus lefties (Fontenot is still getting some PT at second base, too). Chad Tracy, inked to a minor league deal over the winter and hitting .396/.427/.641 in 91 AB at Triple-A Iowa, is expected to be added to the active roster.


Promotion: Twins Call Up Valencia

Minnesota Twins recalled 3B Danny Valencia from Triple-A Rochester.

Valencia, 25, might not be long for Minnesota — he’s replacing RF/reluctant 2B Michael Cuddyer (bereavement list) on the active roster. Then again, while Nick Punto has an outstanding glove at third base (career +19.5 UZR/150 in more than 2,000 innings), he’s hitting below even his modest standards. Plus, Brendan Harris‘ all-around poor play has resulted in a sub-replacement level performance. Minnesota has gotten a combined .257 wOBA from its third basemen, a mark of futility topped only by the Astros.

A 19th round pick out of the University of Miami back in 2006, Valencia entered the year ranked as a top 10 Twins prospect by Baseball America (number six), John Sickels (eight) and our own Marc Hulet (three).

Valencia hit well at the lower levels of the minors, batting .302/.374/.500 in 271 Low-A plate appearances and .313/.367/.469 at the High-A level in 501 PA. He continued to show power at Double-A in 2008 and 2009 (.287/.353/.483 in 539 PA), but extra-base hits have been rarer at the highest level of the minors. In 483 PA in the International League over the past two seasons, Valencia has a .289/.321/.421 triple-slash.

BA, Sickels and Marc all noted that Valencia’s plate discipline was rough, and the 6-2, 210 pound righty batter hasn’t done an especially good job of working the count over the years. That aggressiveness at least came with above-average pop in years past. But that hasn’t been the case with Rochester, and he’s hacking even more to boot:

Low-A (age 22): 10.3 BB%, 22.3 K%, .198 ISO
High-A (22-23): 8.6 BB%, 20.2 K%, .156 ISO
Double-A (23-24): 9.1 BB%, 22.7 K%, .196 ISO
Triple-A (24-25): 4.3 BB%, 15.6 K%, .132 ISO

According to Minor League Splits, Valencia’s work between Double-A and Triple-A in 2009 translated to a .248/.285/.389 line in the majors. His tepid 2010 works out to a .255/.302/.324 major league equivalent triple-slash. CHONE (.252/.295/.388 pre-season projection) and ZiPS (.251/.294/.377) forecast similarly mild lines for Valencia in the show.

As a mid-twenties farm talent who doesn’t work many deep counts and doesn’t possess mammoth power, Valencia has the look of a less-than-ideal option as an everyday player in the big leagues. Those in keeper leagues will probably want to look elsewhere, and owners would have to be pretty desperate for third base help to pick him up for the short term.