Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals (Owned in 5% of Yahoo leagues)

Nationals fans giddily awaited a Stephen Strasburg/Zimmermann combo, giving the moribund franchise a pair of premium power pitchers at the top of the rotation. But alas, as Zimmermann’s Tommy John scars gave way to scoreless starts in the minors, Strasburg’s elbow gave out.

While the news of Strasburg’s injury is bitterly disappointing, Zimmermann is talented in his own right. Washington’s second-round pick in the ’07 draft was extremely impressive during his big league debut last season, with 9.07 K/9, 2.86 BB/9 and a 3.39 xFIP in 91.1 innings pitched. With a fastball averaging a hair over 93 MPH, a mid-80’s slider, a high-70’s curve and a mid-80’s change, Zimmermann leaped ahead in the count (65.2 first pitch strike%, 58% MLB average) and got a good number of swinging strikes (9%, 8.6% MLB average).

On the rehab trail, Zimmermann had a 31/6 K/BB ratio in 39.2 IP spread across four levels. And while two big league starts doesn’t tell us much, he has a 13/1 K/BB ratio in 10 innings pitched. Zimmermann has averaged a little more than 92 MPH with his heater. He’s no Strasburg, but he’s well worth snagging in fantasy leagues.

Neil Walker, Pirates (32%)

Since the Pirates made him the 11th overall pick in the 2004 draft, Walker’s status within the organization has waxed and waned. The switch-hitter from nearby Pine Richland High School has gone from highly-touted catching prospect, to third baseman of the future to an afterthought utility man. But now, in the midst of an excellent 2010 season, Walker’s looking like the Pirates’ long-term answer at second base.

Recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis after raking to the tune of .321/.392/.560 in 189 plate appearances, Walker has posted +11.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in three-plus months in the majors. Turning 25 this coming Friday, Walker is batting .310/.354/.486 in 346 PA, good for a .362 wOBA. Adjusting for park and league factors, Walker’s wOBA is 27 percent above average (127 wRC+). Even better for fantasy owners, Walker still qualifies at the hot corner as well.

Granted, Walker hasn’t drawn many walks (5.8 BB%), and his batting average on balls in play is very high at .367. But ZiPS still projects him as an above-average hitter moving forward, with a .280/.321/.453 triple-slash and a .332 wOBA.

The biggest question he’ll have to answer is, can he cut it at second base? We just don’t know the answer yet. Six-hundred-some innings isn’t near enough of a sample to make an informed judgment, however bad his UZR marks might be. Sean Smith’s Total Zone rated Walker as somewhat below-average at third base in the minors, and figures he’ll cost his club more than a half-win with the glove at second. Expect Pittsburgh to give Walker every chance to make the transition, though.

I wasn’t going to do one of these this week, but with A-Rod going down, here’s some thoughts on who you could pick up to replace him.

Wilson Betemit | Royals | 4% Owned

Dave talked about him yesterday, but he didn’t care enough to talk about his fantasy value. Betemit has always had the power, and just needed the playing time to be worth picking up. He’s playing every day now, so he’s worth your time. Due to his strikeout and low line drive rates, Betemit’s batting average won’t be pretty, so you have to hope his counting stats are good enough to make up for it. If you want to replace A-Rod’s power, pick him up.

Danny Valencia | Twins | 5% Owned

Valencia won’t give you much power, but he’ll keep your batting average at a respectable level. He’s a pretty low risk fill-in, so pick him up if that’s what you’re looking for.

Josh Bell | Orioles | 1% Owned

Bell is more of a high risk guy, who could really pay off if everything clicks. His bat was just OK in Triple-A this year, but after trading Tejada the Orioles wanted to see if he could handle the big show. He’s a switch-hitter with a great line drive stroke, but he strikes out too much to have a high batting average. He hasn’t shown a ton of power recently, and I don’t expect him to. He needs to work on his contact skills, but is a replacement option if you want to take a chance in a keeper league.

Don Kelly | Tigers | 1% Owned

Kelly has shown a ton of power recently, hitting 3 homers in his past 46 at-bats. The Tigers are giving the 30 year-old lefty some playing time, and he may be able to make the most of it. He’s eligible at first base, and in the outfield as well, so he can give your club some versatility. There isn’t much upside here, but he’s worth a shot in AL-only leagues if Betemit is taken.

Wilson Betemit, Royals (Owned in 2% of Yahoo Leagues)

It has been an awfully long time since Betemit signed (illegally) with the Atlanta Braves as a 14-year-old Dominican shortstop in 1996. He was once Atlanta’s organizational golden child, ranking as eighth-best prospect in the game (according to Baseball America) prior to 2002. Betemit has since donned Dodger blue and pinstripes of both the Bronx and South Side variety. Now a 28-year-old with dubious defensive qualifications, the switch-hitter is keeping third base warm for Mike Moustakas following the Alberto Callaspo trade.

In 175 plate appearances for K.C., Betemit has a .342/.423/.559 triple-slash and a .424 wOBA. He’s not gonna keep a .421 BABIP, but it’s not unreasonable to expect him to hit at a level that’s slightly above the big league average. In 1,450 career PA, Betemit has batted .268/.336/.447, which translates to a .336 wOBA and a 106 wRC+. He’ll occasionally take a seat against left-handed pitching, and his D (-13 UZR/150 in 1,885 innings at 3B) won’t endear him to Ned Yost. But ZiPS projects Betemit for a moderately useful .266/.329/.422 for the rest of the season.

Homer Bailey, Reds (8%)

With Mike Leake bullpen-bound in an effort to limit his innings and Johnny Cueto serving a suspension for kicking Jason LaRue in the head during a skirmish with the Cardinals, Bailey got a spot-start for Cincy on August 15th. The 24-year-old whiffed four Fish and walked none, tossing six scoreless frames. Bailey got another start versus the Dodgers on the 20th and shined once again (7 IP, 6/2 K/BB, 1 run).

Few players have frustrated fantasy players more than the seventh pick in the 2004 draft, and Bailey missed nearly three months with right shoulder inflammation this season. But when on the bump, he has performed decently — in 63.2 innings pitched, he’s got 7.21 K/9, 3.25 BB/9 and a 4.35 xFIP. It remains to be seen whether the change sticks, but Bailey has displayed better control and is getting ahead in the count more often (61.5 first pitch strike percentage, compared to a mid-fifties mark from 2007-2009 and a 58-59% MLB average). There are no guarantees here, given Homer’s injury issues and the possibility that he does get bumped to the ‘pen. Still, he’s making progress and possesses more upside than most waiver wire fodder.

James McDonald, Pirates (Owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues)

I took an in-depth look at McDonald a couple of weeks before the Dodgers shipped the lanky right-hander to the Bucs (along with OF prospect Andrew Lambo) in exchange for reliever Octavio Dotel. The article’s main point still stands:

At this point, he looks more like a league-average starter long-term, as opposed to a high-upside arm. McDonald’s curve and change allow him to miss an above-average number of bats, but his control is just so-so and his fly ball tendencies are somewhat worrisome.

However, McDonald’s career prospects brightened considerably following that deadline deal. In L.A., he was an out-of-favor option for the back of the rotation. In Pittsburgh, he’s arguably the most talented arm on the staff. The 25-year-old has impressed his new club so far, posting a 20/4 K/BB ratio and surrendering five runs in 17.2 innings pitched. He’s sitting 92-93 MPH with his fastball, mixing in a sharp 12-to-6 curve and a fading changeup.

Don’t get carried away — it’s just three starts, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projection (7.1 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.77 FIP) isn’t spectacular. But McDonald now has a clear shot at regular starts, and he’s young and gifted enough to garner interest in NL-only leagues.

Pedro Alvarez, Pirates (24%)

The second overall pick in the 2008 draft boasts excellent secondary skills, and he’s taking and raking so far in the majors. Alvarez is batting .255/.339/.453 in 218 plate appearances, walking 11.5% of the time and posting a .198 Isolated Power. That’s good for a .348 wOBA and a 118 wRC+. Pedro’s powerful cuts have come with plenty of whiffs, though — he’s just shy of Mark Reynolds territory with a 35.9% K rate and a 68% contact rate.

Still, as Reynolds, Adam Dunn and other hitters with Herculean pop prove, strikeouts don’t preclude a batter from being highly successful. This 23-year-old Vanderbilt product might not top the .250 range, but his patience and power make him worth a roster spot in mixed leagues.

Some notes on three third baseman to start your Tuesday.

Blake DeWitt | Cubs | 2% Owned

DeWitt was the main piece heading back to the Cubs in the Ted Lilly deal, and has made the Cubs very happy with his production thus far. His line drive approach and quickness will allow for his .335 BABIP to say relatively constant, keeping his batting average around .275. If he can cut back on the strikeouts by a couple percent, he will be an even better fantasy (and real life) option. He won’t hit for much power, or steal many bases, but he’s a good option if you are looking for batting average or you need help in an OBP league.

Alex Gordon | Royals | 19% Owned

Since being recalled from the minors, Gordon has hit four homers in 22 plate appearances, and even stole a base. His walk rate in that time has not been good, and his strikeout rate hasn’t been good, either. His BABIP has been low, compared to his line drive rate, so the batting average will come up a bit. His ability to fill both your third base and left field hole helps his value, and he’s still worth an add in deeper and AL-only keeper leagues.

Paul Janish | Reds | 0% Owned

Janish is starting to enter his peak seasons, so it’s now or never for the Cincinnati shortstop. Janish has always hit a strangely high amount of fly balls for a light hitting shortstop, but his BB and K-rates have been consistently good, and getting better. Like DeWitt, Janish is worth a shot in OBP leagues, though he should probably be slotted in at your shortstop position. If you’re in a keeper format, hopefully Janish shows enough on the field for the Reds to consider him for a starting role in 2011, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Monday night White Sox 3B Dayan Viciedo went 0-3. He now has 74 PA without a walk, the most by any player this year. Since 1901, the record for most PA without a walk is held by Hall of Fame pitcher Ed Walsh, who went 156 PA without a single base on balls. If we limit it to non-pitchers, the record is 148, set by the immortal Craig Robinson, who was a middle infielder for the Phillies in 1973.

Robinson is one of eight non-pitchers to amass over 100 PA in a season without drawing a walk, the most recent being Alejandro Sanchez, who accumulated 133 PA in 1985. Sanchez was actually the best hitter of this group, with a .707 OPS. The next highest mark was the .500 one posted by Robinson.

If the season ended Monday, Viciedo would rank 34th on the list of most PA without a walk (non-pitcher division). But while the vast majority of these players brought very little to the plate, Viciedo has a .297/.297/.500 line. Among players with a minimum of 50 PA, his .797 OPS ranks as the fourth-best mark.

In fact only five players since 1901 have completed a season with no walks and an OPS of .750 or greater. Here are some numbers on those guys:

It is certainly nice for a young player to be on a list with Murphy and May. Even Mueller had a 12-year career and a lifetime .296 AVG.

But while this list is interesting, there are at least two immediate problems trying to use it to forecast the future for Viciedo. First, 2010 is not over and there is still plenty of time for Viciedo to draw a walk. Second, since it has proven impossible to go even 200 PA and not draw a walk, our sample sizes are necessarily small.

So, let’s up the minimum PA level to 400 and instead of zero walks, let’s use a BB% of under 5 percent. Last year in the minors, Viciedo had a 4.3 BB% in Double-A and this year in Triple-A it was 3.1 percent. In the past three seasons, 64 players met these requirements and 22 had an OPS of .750 or above.

The vast majority of these are middle infielders, with 12 of our 22 listed above being either 2B or SS. Five more are catchers. Only five played at a non-premium defensive position and none of those were a 3B like Viciedo. Still, let’s look at those five players.

Guerrero – Known as a free swinger, Guerrero has a lifetime 8.6 BB% and 2009 is the only time in his career that his rate slipped under 5 percent.

Ichiro – Similar to Guerrero, Ichiro is consistently above a 5.0 BB%. Last year was the first time since his debut season in this country that Ichiro failed to reach that plateau. Lifetime he has a 6.3 percent mark.

Hart – Lifetime BB% of 6.7 and 2008 was a career low and the only time he fell below our 5.0 threshold. Hart’s OPS was 55 points below his lifetime mark this season.

Anderson – His 2008 BB% was right around his 4.7 percent career average. Six other times in his career, Anderson had at least 400 PA, a BB% less than 5 and an OPS greater than .749. His best year was 2003 when he had a 4.6 BB% and a wOBA of .371 and his best fantasy season was 2000 when he hit .286 with 35 HR and 117 RBIs.

Nady – A lifetime 5.9 BB%, Nady enjoyed one of the two best seasons of his career in a year where he had his lowest walk rate in seven seasons with at least 50 PA. Generally, he walked a little more and was less productive overall than he was in 2007.

The complete lack of walks we are witnessing from Viciedo this year is unusual but not unprecedented. Given the lack of walks, his overall production is quite impressive. Recent history shows Anderson as the best-case scenario for Viciedo. But even Anderson had better walk rates than Viciedo. In his last full season in the minors, Anderson had a 5.2 BB% and in 2,259 PA in the minors, Anderson had a 5.1 BB%. Viciedo has a 3.9 BB% in 795 PA in the minors to go along with his 0.0 mark in the majors.

Alex Rodriguez finally hit his 600th, but his owners have noticed that there was something wonky going on before the race to the benchmark ever started. A look at Jack Moore’s piece on the moment gives you a hint, but just look at the Rodriguez and his ISO over his career and it comes into sharp focus:

His offense has been declining for some time now, and power seems to be the reason. His flyball percentage is not the culprit, as it has stayed remarkably steady. Even though his HR/FB percentage has hit a career low this year, it was within his career range before this year, so that seems to be a lagging indicator. Is there an indicator out in front that might have been a harbinger of this power slump?

His hit tracker information is interesting. Using HitTrackerOnline, we can see that the average speed on his home runs has not been the same since 2008:

Of course, that was about the same time that Rodriguez started having hip troubles that has led to surgery and soreness since. In the spring of 2009, the news dropped and he hasn’t been the same since. Fanhouse scout Frankie Pilliere had something interesting scouting things to say, that also centered on the hips. It’s About the Money Stupid spotted this great piece:

Essentially, it all comes down to his lower half. When he’s right, no hitter has the balance and strength in the lower half that he does.
[…]
The swing we see from Rodriguez now is one more reliant on his upper body, with far less explosive torque and his hips following his stride.
[…]
Without creating that coiled spring effect before he releases his hands and with less drive of the hips toward the baseball, bat speed is going to suffer. And while there is no official measurement of actual bat speed available, we’ve seen Rodriguez get beat more often by the fastball without that powerful base from which to hit. It’s just not possible to produce the same bat speed.
[…]
If you’re an optimistic person, and expect the Rodriguez of old to return, what you’ll see is a smaller, abbreviated leg kick where he has very little movement in his lower half before he drives his hips at the ball. You’ll also see his head stay much more centered over the middle of his body and far less upper body involvement. If he can accomplish all that, we’ll see his bat speed return and the more prolific home run numbers will follow.

It looks like the numbers and the scouting facts align: Alex Rodriguez does not have the same juice in his hips that he used to. It’s hard for the average fan to notice, but watching the leg kick and his hips is one key. But, as we fantasy fans know, it’s much easier to watch the speed off his bat and trust the numbers once they turn around. Until they do, we’ll have to assume we are watching the decline of a great hitter.

Allen Craig, Cardinals (Owned in 1% of Yahoo leagues)

St. Louis’ eighth-round pick in the 2006 draft, Craig is a 6-2, 210 pound power hitter with dubious defensive skills. The 26-year-old was recently recalled by the Cards, and he’s expected to spot for Jon Jay against lefties in right field. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch Tweets that Craig will also get some starts at third base, now that David Freese is set for season-ending surgery on his right ankle.

Craig posted a .304/.371/.506 line in 593 plate appearances at the Double-A level, with an 8.3% walk rate, a 17.5 K% and a .202 ISO. The California Golden Bear’s bat has been more ferocious in Triple-A — a .322/.380/.551 triple-slash in 842 PA. Craig has an 8.1 BB%, a 19.9 K% and a .229 ISO in the Pacific Coast League. He’s not an especially patient hitter, though he can certainly put a charge into the ball.

What should be expected of Craig at the big league level? Minor League Splits shows that his hitting at Memphis in 2009 translates to a .278/.319/.440 line in the majors, and his 2010 performances equates to .277/.330/.452. CHONE has a similar projection (.276/.333/.448). While he won’t work a lot of walks and he’ll try Tony La Russa’s patience with his glove work, Craig looks like a cheap source of pop in NL-only leagues.

Rick Ankiel, Braves (5%)

Atlanta picked up Ankiel from the Royals at the trade deadline (along with Kyle Farnsworth) for LHP Tim Collins, OF Gregor Blanco and RHP Jesse Chavez. The 31-year-old will take over center field for the club while Nate McLouth tries to erase all memories of the past four months, Men in Black style.

Not that Ankiel is having himself a banner season, either. He missed over two-and-a-half months with a right quadriceps strain, just the latest in a litany of ailments that includes a torn left patellar tendon in ’06, a sore knee, shoulder and a sports hernia in ’08 and Achilles tendinitis, a groin strain and a shoulder injury suffered after colliding with the outfield fence in ’09. Ankiel’s got a .262/.319/.456 line in 113 PA so far, with a spike in ground ball rate (50.7%), K rate (32.7%) and pop ups (22.7 IF/FB%) masked by a .343 BABIP. Given the teeny sample, I wouldn’t put much emphasis on those totals.

ZiPS pegs Ankiel as a .254/.310/.458 hitter for the rest of 2010, while CHONE throws out a less sunny .247/.302/.445. There’s little certainty with the Braves’ new lefty slugger. He’s worth a gamble in NL-only formats, but Ankiel’s potential payoff isn’t worth the headaches for mixed leaguers.

In 2004, Juan Uribe posted a 108 wRC+ as a 24-year old. He had position eligibility at 2B, 3B and SS and was one of the most exciting middle infielders in fantasy baseball. Flash forward to 2010 and Uribe has a 107 wRC+ and position eligibility at the same three infield slots. But despite this strong play, Uribe is almost an afterthought in fantasy circles.

After the 2004 season, in which he batted .283 and hit 23 HR, Uribe declined in subsequent years. While the power remained strong, he saw his AVG drop to where he hit .235 and .234 in back-to-back seasons. After an injury-plagued 2008 season, which also saw Alexei Ramirez cut into his playing time, Uribe left the White Sox and signed with the Giants as a minor league free agent.

Uribe bounced back in a big way in 2009, posting a .289 AVG while rebounding from 7 HR in 2008 to 16 HR. This year the AVG has fallen off, currently .261, but he has nearly matched last year’s HR output with 15 HR in 380 ABs.

Last Player Picked has Uribe’s season worth $11. Among second baseman in mixed leagues he is tied for the 10th-best dollar value and among shortstops he ranks tied for sixth. All of this comes from a player who Couch Managers had with an ADP of 256.

For fantasy players, the key question is: Can Uribe keep it up, whatever “it” may be? In his breakout season of 2004, Uribe posted a .307 BABIP, certainly not a mark to turn anyone’s head. But from 2005 through 2008, Uribe had marks of .264, .240, .259 and .287 in the category, helping to explain the sub-par AVG. Last year he had his best season, with a BABIP of .325, and this year he checks in with a .274 mark.

If we look at his batted ball profile, we see Uribe has dramatically increased his GB%. In his last year with the White Sox, Uribe had a 34.4 GB%, a career-low, but basically in line with what he had done previously. Last year he had a 39.5 GB% and so far this year it is 43.5 percent. While Uribe is hitting fewer fly balls, he is compensating with a higher HR/FB rate. Last year he set a career-high with a 12.6 percent rate and this year Uribe has a 13.2 mark.

But while Uribe is poised to post career-best HR/FB rates in back-to-back years, it was not significantly better than his career marks. Lifetime he has a 10.1 HR/FB rate and he topped 12 percent in two seasons prior to 2009.

One other statistic of note is how well Uribe has hit in San Francisco. In his time with the Giants, Uribe has a .326 AVG in 344 ABs at home compared to a .233 AVG in 395 ABs on the road. Additionally, he has 18 HR at home compared to 13 in road parks.

Uribe is a free agent following the 2010 season. The Giants already have 2B Freddy Sanchez under contract for 2011 and hold a club option on SS Edgar Renteria. UZR shows Uribe as a good fielder at 2B in his two years with the Giants, but below average at SS.

Regardless of where he signs, Uribe should still be a good power option in the middle infield for 2011. But fantasy owners may be disappointed with his AVG, especially if he leaves San Francisco. While it is normal for BABIP and AVG to fluctuate wildly year to year compared to other fantasy stats, Uribe’s career marks in those categories do not show someone to count on to be a plus performer.

Still, even with just a fair mark in AVG, Uribe should be a valuable fantasy player due to his power, as MI who can hit 20 HR do not grow on trees. In 2009, only 14 players with MI eligibility hit 20 HR. Updated ZiPS projects Uribe to finish with 20 HR in 2010.

Want to know about three random third baseman? You’re in luck!

Bill Hall | Red Sox | 2% Owned

Once a fantasy darling, Hall is now most valuable for his eligibility at multiple positions. Hall has brought his BB% up to his 2005 (35 HR year) levels, and is flashing good power. His batting average is still a big hit, but he’s hit 10 homers and stolen 4 bases in less than 225 plate appearances. Usually this is the part where I tell you to pick up the player in certain leagues, but I’m not going to do that. If you have Hall, don’t drop him, but try to deal him. Ellsbury is starting a rehab stint right now, and Pedroia will be back quickly, so Hall isn’t going to get much PT when those two return.

Jerry Hairston Jr. | Padres | 10% Owned

I love guys who can fill in at both the CI and MI positions, so Hairston is a favorite of mine. He’s currently has 2B/3B/SS/OF eligibility in Yahoo! leagues, and he’s one of the few guys with that sort of flexibility AND playing time. Hairston is having a season on par with his career numbers, but his combo of small power and speed contributions (7 HR, 7 SB) makes him a valuable asset. I picked him up yesterday, and you should think about doing the same if you are in anything deeper than a 12-team standard league.

Chris Johnson | Astros | 3% Owned

Johnson may be one of the many guys who are better fantasy players than they are real baseball players. In the 116 times he’s walked to the plate for Houston this year, Johnson has hit 3 homers and is hitting .315. His BABIP is very high (.390), but his high line drive rate will help him keep the batting average at a reasonable level. Here’s where it gets tricky: He walks less than Miguel Tejada, making him close to worthless in OBP leagues. He’s a good buy in NL-only leagues that have held onto AVG this year, and has some added value in keeper leagues.