Stock Down

Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks

What was initially called a minor shoulder ailment has morphed into something more nefarious, as Webb will miss a minimum of six more weeks. Owners who invested in the terrifically durable D-Backs co-ace (Webb easily surpassed the 200 IP mark every year since 2004, and tossed 229 or more frames from 2005-2008) have to be sorely disappointed. With Arizona collectively hitting about as well as colony of Neifi Perez clones (the club’s wOBA is a sickly .299, 28th in the bigs), the Diamondbacks desperately need a healthy and productive Webb to avoid being left in the dust by the Dodgers.

Edinson Volquez, Reds

The light has yet to go on fully for Edinson. He was very productive in 2008 (posting a 3.60 FIP in 196 innings), but his typically turbulent control has been downright awful so far: 20 free passes in 20.1 frames. Just 39.5% of his pitches have crossed the plate, which is the lowest rate among all starters and is nearly 10 percent below the major league average.

Howie Kendrick, Angels

Kendrick is known to swing at anything within the general vicinity of California, and his level of hackery has few peers: only the walk-less Yuniesky Betancourt and Bengie Molina can lay claim to fewer free passes than Kendrick’s one. There’s nothing especially earth-shattering about Kendrick’s lack of restraint, but the hits haven’t been falling in the early going: the 25 year-old has a .258 average, the product of a .300 BABIP and a slightly elevated K rate (21.2%). The result is a nasty .290 OBP and a mediocre .314 wOBA. This is what happens when a batting average-dependent player has one less hit fall in per week; it happens.

Ivan Rodriguez, Astros

Pudge has been pummeled at the plate thus far, with a macabre .267 wOBA that might have some Astros fans bemoaning the departure of Brad Ausmus (no, not really). Opposing pitchers have thrown Rodriguez slider after slider in 2009: after getting a slide piece 18.4% of the time in 2008, I-Rod has seen that rate increase to an eye-popping 39.9% (the highest rate in the majors by a wide margin: Cody Ross is second at 30.7%). As an impatient backstop pounding the ball into the ground (2.08 groundball-to-flyball ratio), Rodriguez’s distinguished career has reached its nadir in Houston. Recently recalled J.R. Towles could begin to eat away at Pudge’s playing time.

Milton Bradley, Cubs

In a shocking development, Bradley has been frequently injured. The switch-hitting force has taken just 31 foul plate appearances for the Cubs (.252 wOBA), continuing a career-long pattern of mashing followed by M*A*S*Hing in the trainer’s room. Bradley and Rich Harden must be, like, best friends.

Stock Up

Josh Johnson, Marlins

Clearly mended from Tommy John surgery, Johnson has come out breathing fire and making professional hitters look like confused little leaguers. The 6-7 righty has a 29/5 K/BB ratio in 28.2 innings, good for a 2.24 FIP that ranks 7th in the big leagues. What’s more frightening: the spike in velocity (Johnson is throwing his heater harder than ever, at 94.7 MPH), the improved control (55.9% of his pitches have been in the strike zone, well above the 49% MLB average) or the newfound groundball tendencies (60 GB%, compared to a 47.2% career average)?

Chad Billingsley, Dodgers

Billinglsey has always eviscerated right-handed hitters (career .633 OPS against), but southpaws have typically been his bugaboo (.764 OPS against). In ’09, however, the Dodgers ace has held lefties to a .615 OPS thus far. Over time, Billingsley has decreased his fastball usage (down from the mid-60% range in 2006-2007 to 53.6% in 2009). In its place, he’s become more reliant upon a hard upper-80’s cutter. The cutter usage has increased each year of his career (from 6.8% in ’06 all the way up to 20.8% in ’09), and his Outside Swing% has gone north as well: from 21.9% during that rookie season to 32% this year.

Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs

This is the sort of player the Cubs thought they had acquired. Fukudome (32 yesterday) has been an on-base fiend this season, with a 17.3 BB% and power to boot (.290 ISO). He won’t keep on hitting like a Barry Bonds clone, but the combo of outstanding plate discipline (his outside swing% is just 11.9%, compared to the 24.3% MLB average) and doubles is worth a roster spot in most leagues.

Nick Markakis, Orioles

Markakis’ name might not be mentioned in the discussion of the top players in the game, but he should be. The 25 year-old’s wOBA has increased every year of his big league career: .346 in 2006, .366 in 2007 and .389 in 2008. In 2009, he holds a gaudy .460 mark in 87 PA.

Javier Vazquez, Braves

Vazquez has taken the NL by storm, posting a sparkling 1.77 FIP in 24 IP. He has punched out a ridiculous 34 batters, while issuing 7 walks. In the early going, Javier has decreased the deployment of his low-80’s slider (from 22.8% in 2008 to 14.5% in ’09) in favor of more low-70’s curves and low-80’s changeups. Also of note: his groundball percentage is 47.4% this season, compared to a 39.2% career average. Keeping the ball on the ground more often would be a welcome development for a very good pitcher with an unfortunate proclivity for handing out souvenirs (career 1.18 HR/9).

Stock Up

Corey Hart, Brewers

During the offseason, we noted how in 2008, Hart resembled a happy puppy dog chasing a frisbee every time a pitcher tossed him a slider. The result of the lanky Brewer’s unrestrained hacking was a 4.2 BB% and a .327 wOBA. Opposing hurlers continue to go to the slider versus Hart (24.2% of his total pitches seen thus far in 2009, 19th-highest in the majors), but he’s shown more patience to this point: 8 unintentional walks in 53 PA.

Nick Swisher, Yankees

Swisher appeared in this column last week as well, but his path toward everyday playing time became much cleaner with the news that Xavier Nady might be headed for another Tommy John surgery. Off to a blistering start, Swish is projected to post a useful .360 wOBA by CHONE. Plus, he’s leading the league in ERA (somewhere, Gabe Kapler does bicep curls and weeps).

Zack Greinke, Royals

An absurdly gifted hurler, Greinke has channeled his inner Pedro Martinez by posting a 26/5 K/BB ratio in 20 frames to start the season. KC’s ace has yet to be scored upon, and opposing batters have chased nearly 30% of his offerings out of the strike zone (24.6% average).

Adam Jones, Orioles

Jones already proved himself to be a nifty fielder in 2008 (11.5 UZR/150 in center field), but his bat has shown signs of taking flight as well. Like Hart, Jones has worked the count to greater effect in the early going, drawing 7 free passes in 53 PA. The more conservative approach is a welcome sight after the 23 year-old went fishing for pitches outside of the strike zone 36.2% of the time in 2008 (9th-highest in the bigs). Jones left Sunday night’s game with a tight hamstring, but the injury isn’t considered serious.

Manny Corpas, Rockies

Corpas now has dibs on the 9th inning duties in Colorado, as Huston Street will be relegated to middle-man status for the time being. Corpas’ own qualifications for the high-leverage role might be lacking (his career FIP is 3.79, with 6.36 K/9), but he’s worth a look if you can snag him on the cheap.

Stock Down

Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees

Wang’s numbers look like a typo: 6 innings, 23 hits, 23 runs, 34.50 ERA. While keeping in mind that the sample size is incredibly small, his sinker is down velocity-wise (90.5 MPH in ’09, 91.8 MPH in ’08) and his slider has come in softer as well (81.9 MPH, compared to 85.4 MPH in ’08). Perhaps nothing is wrong with Wang long-term- baseball tends to go through its own period of McCarthyism during April, as bold claims are made based on small amount of evidence. Still, Wang has experienced about as much success as this fellow on the bump.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox

Dice-K hits the DL with “arm fatigue”, as his fastball dips into the high-80’s with a commensurate drop in slider and changeup velocity as well. Matsuzaka is a prime regression candidate in 2009.

Vladimir Guerrero, Angels

Whither Vlad? The aging Impaler posted his lowest Isolated Power figure (.218) since his Expos days in 2008, jumped straight from 32 to 34 during the offseason, and now he’s on the shelf with a torn pectoral muscle that could sideline him for a month or more. At this rate, we’ll find out that Guerrero is actually just a 42 year-old Moises Alou wearing a mask. Speaking of Alou, is Vladimir entering a Moises-type phase of his career, where he rakes when he’s upright enough to take the field?

Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins

Bonifacio’s hot start engendered hopes that the Fish had lured in a steal during the offseason. However, the Martian inhabiting Emilio’s body departed this past week. He’s 1 for his last 16. Going forward, expect some singles and SB’s, but his total lack of secondary skills will make him something less than an asset.

Alex Gordon, Royals

Failure to Launch: The former Golden Spikes Award winner and Nebraska’s favorite son appeared poised to bust out in 2009, having improved his walk rate considerably during the ’08 season. Unfortunately, Gordon had to undergo hip surgery that is expected to keep him out of commission for about 3 months.

During the offseason, we touched upon the absolutely ridiculous range of the Seattle Mariners’ new outfield. With imports Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez joining Ichiro Suzuki out in the pasture, the M’s figured to possess three center field-worthy gloves to cover the gaps (Ken Griffey Jr. has since been added, to fill the Raul Ibanez comedic relief role).

The potential gain of a Chavez/Gutierrez/Suzuki alignment over Seattle’s consortium of laggardly leather in 2008 is huge, with a swing of perhaps 5 wins (more, if Chavez continues to see the field regularly). Granted, some of those gains will be returned in the hitting department, but the stable of fleet-footed defenders had to be a welcome addition to a pitch-to-contact rotation (M’s starters ranked 22nd in K/9 in 2008, with 5.92).

While Ichiro (ulcer) has only recently returned to the field following his first ever DL stint, Chavez and Gutierrez have put on a clinic in left and center. In ’08, the Mariners’ outfield posted a collective -4.6 UZR/150, meaning that Seattle’s fly-catchers were about five runs worse than average per 150 games played.

In 2009, the M’s outfield has compiled a spit-take worthy 56.9 UZR/150, lapping the field by a significant margin (the Rockies are currently second, with 36 UZR/150). Granted, we are talking about a small sample of games, and no bold claims should be made on defensive numbers in mid-April, but the change in quality has been nothing short of stunning.

Currently, Mariners pitchers have allowed a .128 Batting Average on Balls in Play on flyballs in 2009 (the A.L. average thus far is .230). Last year, M’s hurlers posted a .213 BABIP on flyballs (.215 league average).

Short of finding a way to clone Willie Mays a couple of times, it would be hard to keep up that pace. But, Seattle’s outfield trio comes with glowing scouting reports and the numbers to back them up. Strikeout-challenged starters such as Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva might not look quite as bad, with so many balls put in play being converted into outs, and the resurgent Erik Bedard is slanted toward the flyball end of the pitching spectrum.

Outfield defense might not seem like a big deal from a fantasy perspective, but having quality defenders behind a pitcher can be the difference between a guy being roster-worthy or simply waiver fodder. With Chavez, Gutierrez and now Ichiro manning the outfield, whomever takes the mound for the M’s does so with a leg up on the competition.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Activated RHP Max Scherzer from the 15-day disabled list. Optioned RHP Billy Buckner to Triple-A Reno.

Scherzer (who had been sidelined with a tight shoulder) becomes a must-start if he shows that he’s physically sound. His mid-90’s gas and sharp mid-80’s breaker give him the artillery necessary to beat down major league hitters, though his bumpy control and stamina will have to be improved. CHONE and ZiPS both call for a FIP of about 3.60- Scherzer is extremely talented, but it’s difficult to project just how many starts he’ll make in 2009.

Boston Red Sox

Placed SS Jed Lowrie on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to April 12, with a left wrist sprain. Recalled INF Gil Velazquez from Triple-A Pawtucket.

Placed RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka on the 15-day disabled list with a mild right shoulder strain. Recalled LHP Hunter Jones from Triple-A Pawtucket.

Lowrie was bothered by a wrist injury last season as well, and unfortunately for him, Julio Lugo (rehabbing from a knee problem) will beat him back to the field. The switch-hitting Lowrie (25 tomorrow-talk about a crappy birthday present), is certainly a larger part of Boston’s future going forward. The projection systems presented here at Fan Graphs peg Lowrie as the better batsmen, though not a huge margin:

Lowrie’s projected wOBA’s:

CHONE: .335
ZiPS: .328
Oliver: .329

Lugo’s projected wOBA’s:

CHONE: .319
ZiPS: .326
Oliver: .309

Matsuzaka, meanwhile, is suffering from the always-nebulous designation of “arm fatigue.” Through two ineffective starts, Dice-K’s velocity is down about two and a half MPH from 2008 (91.8 MPH in ’08, 89.2 MPH in ’09).

Chicago White Sox

Placed OF Dewayne Wise on the 15-day disabled list with a Grade 3 separated right shoulder. Purchased the contract of OF Jerry Owens from Triple-A Charlotte. Signed free agent OF Scott Podsednik, who had been with the Rockies, to a Minor League contract.

“Dewayne Wise, everyday center fielder” was about as good of an idea as Disco Demolition Night: ill-conceived, lots of destruction, very little productivity. Wise (he of a career .253 OBP) hits the shelf following a shoulder injury suffered diving for a ball. Neither Brian Anderson (career .653 OPS) nor the recalled Owens (.632) should be sniffing anywhere near your fantasy squad. As for the ubiquitous Podsednik? His slappy skill-set at the plate wouldn’t appear to make him any more qualified for the role.

St. Louis Cardinals

Placed RHP Chris Carpenter on the 15-day disabled list. Optioned RHP Brad Thompson to Triple-A Memphis. Recalled RHP Mitchell Boggs and RHP Chris Perez from Triple-A Memphis.

Well, so much for that. Carp finds himself on the DL again, this time with a strained oblique suffered on a swing in the 4th inning of his second start.

As for Perez, he could well re-enter the closer derby developing in St. Louis. Ryan Franklin is ostensibly “the man” for the moment (the way this is going, that could change by the time you read this), but he and his near-five career FIP seem ill-suited to serve in critical late-game situations.

Let’s take a look at the early season performances of the bullpen rock stars, the closers. For the purposes of this “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Brad Lidge, Phillies: “Lights Out” remains perfect in save situations, though he’s surrendered 3 runs and two bombs in five innings. Lidge was due for some regression in the tater department: his HR/FB% was just 3.9 in 2008. Odds are, he’ll post a FIP in the low-three’s as a few more homers leave the park and will be labeled a “disappointment” despite little change in his actual skill level.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets:

Jerry Manuel, forward thinker:

“We have, as an industry, somewhat boxed ourselves into making people believe that, ‘If it’s not that [save] situation, I don’t do well,'” Manuel said. “But the game is still on the line. That’s the bottom line. And that’s what we — especially as the team we are in New York — we have to understand that. It’s about the win, and not the statistic.” (Mets.com, via Rotoworld)

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers: Big John is 3-for-3 to start the season, with 5 punchouts and no walks in 4 frames. His upper-90’s cheddar and nasty slider give him the equipment to dominate.

Matt Capps, Pirates: Capps (apparently healthy after a shoulder injury in 2008) is an odd duck as a late-inning reliever: he throws hard and relies heavily on his heat, but he gets the job done more with location (career 1.36 BB/9) than sheer force (6.7 K/9). Capps has converted both save opportunities thus far.

Heath Bell, Padres: The Padres do as good a job as anyone in procuring cheap, effective bullpen help, and they continue to go that route. Take a look at the current relief corps: literally everyone outside of Bell, Cla Meredith (both also acquired in lower-level trades) and Edwin Moreno was not in the organization as of a couple months ago. So far, so good for Heath: he’s racked up four saves in four chances.

In Control

Mike Gonzalez, Braves: Gonzo’s beginning his first full year back from Tommy John surgery, and is 1-for-2 in save ops thus far.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins: He’s working his way back from a strained right rotator cuff, and is also one for two in picking up the save. Lindstrom doesn’t miss as many bats as you’d think he would, given the upper-90’s velocity (career 7.62 K/9).

Kevin Gregg, Cubs: Gregg clearly plays second-fiddle to Carlos Marmol in talent level, but the erstwhile Marlin will rack up the glory stat for one of the National League’s strongest clubs. He’s off to a turbulent start (6/5 K/BB in 4 IP).

Francisco Cordero, Reds: After a macabre spring, Cincy’s good-but-overcompensated stopper has pitched three scoreless frames, with 4 K’s and no walks.

Jose Valverde, Astros: Valverde has yet to get a save op, as the Houston Astros trot out a “you mean he’s still around?”-quality back of the rotation.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks: With little fanfare, Qualls posted a 3.02 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate to root out good or bad luck on flyballs) in 2008. That bested Valverde (3.49), the man for whom he was traded prior to the ’08 season, by nearly half a run.

Brian Wilson, Giants: Wilson is a high-octane hurler, punching out 9.67 batters per nine innings in 2008 while also generating grounders at a 51.7% clip. Can his control take a step forward? Stay tuned.

Watch Your Back

Joel Hanrahan, Nationals: Joel hasn’t had a save chance yet, what with the Nats laying the groundwork for a quick fall into irrelevance in 2009. He’s whiffed over 9 batters per nine innings in his career, but Hanrahan’s helter-skelter control (5.31 BB/9) will have Manny Acta and fantasy owners reaching for the Tums on a regular basis.

Carlos Villanueva, Brewers: Villanueva is simply keeping the seat warm for Trevor Hoffman (oblique injury). “Hell’s Bells” will soon blare at Miller Park, but the extreme flyball act might not work as well outside of Petco.

Jason Motte/Ryan Franklin/Kyle McClellan/Denys Reyes, Cardinals: Motte got off on the wrong foot opening day, surrendering the lead to the Pirates and apparently losing the confidence of Tony La Russa. Motte still looks like the best man for the job, but it’s anyone’s guess as to who enters the next time the Cards have a lead in the late innings.

Huston Street, Rockies: Street has given up 6 hits and 3 runs in 2.2 innings so far. Manny Corpas (and possibly Taylor Buchholz when he returns from an elbow injury) could continue to remain in the picture.

Let’s take a look at the early season performances of the bullpen rock stars, the closers. For the purposes of this “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees: Mo shall throw a cutter, and you shall not hit it. Rivera has only gotten one save and two frames of work thus far, but the 40 year-old wonder remains damn-near untouchable.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: The Angels smacked Papelbon on April 11th (Torii Hunter took him deep), but there’s nothing to worry about here.

Kerry Wood, Indians: Woody hasn’t had much action with the Tribe off to a false start, but he’s coming off a season in which he posted a 4.67 K/BB ratio and a 2.32 FIP.

Joakim Soria, Royals: The Mexicutioner won’t post a 1.60 ERA again (his BABIP was a Tony Pena Jr.-esque .215 in ’08), but his filthy four-pitch mix makes him one of the best (and perhaps most overqualified) relievers in the game.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox: Jenks has certainly become a different sort of hurler over the past few seasons; whether that’s for the best remains to be seen. The Royals got to him on April 9th, but he converted another opportunity versus the club on the 7th and blanked the Twins on the 12th.

Joe Nathan, Twins: How many people realize that Nathan hasn’t posted a K/BB of less than four since 2004, and that his 2.79 FIP in 2008 was his highest mark since his last year in a Giants uniform (2003)?

In Control

George Sherrill, Orioles: Sherrill is 3-for-3 in save situations to start the year, through he’ll have to contend with rehabilitated flame-thrower Chris Ray throughout the season.

Brad Ziegler, Athletics: The generic starter-turned submariner is 2-for-3 in save situations for the year, but he won’t have to worry about Joey Devine (elbow, 60-day DL) any time soon.

Brandon Morrow: Morrow’s move to the bullpen has certainly spurred some lively debate. He’s off to a bit of a rough start (4/5 K/BB in 2.2 IP) and David Aardsma has snatched up a couple saves, but the job is supposed to be there for the former Cal star. In other disappointing news, top prospect Philip Aumont was also moved to the ‘pen. At this rate, the 2010 rotation will consist of Felix Hernandez and “staff.”

Brian Fuentes, Angels: Fuentes is 2-for-3 in save ops thus far, with 6 hits and 4 runs allowed. The former Rockie was quite good last season, but the 2.73 ERA is pushing it: his HR/FB rate was just 4.5% (the average is around 10-11%). Fuentes’ velocity has been down, for whatever that’s worth in 3 innings of work (89.8 MPH on the fastball in ’09, 91.6 MPH in ’08).

Frank Francisco, Rangers: Francisco whiffed 11.79 per nine in ’08 with a 3.18 FIP, but his control does come and go, not the best tendency for a high-leverage reliever. He’s the best that Texas has to offer, but his leash might not be as long as it should be with Eddie Guardado and C.J. Wilson lurking around.

Watch Your Back

Troy Percival, Rays: Between Percy’s chronic back and hamstring issues as well as Joe Maddon’s flexibility in using his best relievers in the most crucial situations (that could be a save situation, or not), the burly veteran isn’t guaranteed much.

B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays: Ryan has looked downright awkward to begin the ’09 season: he used to sit 90-91 with his heater and snap off wicked mid-80’s sliders, but the herky-jerky lefty is averaging just 88 MPH through three appearances. The role is his for now, but the Jays do possess a deep ‘pen.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers: Rodney will get the call in the 9th for now, having usurped Brandon Lyon. Still, he’s Fernando Rodney, he of a career 4.51 BB/9. He looks like he should dominate with that gas/changeup combo, but he just doesn’t. ’08 first-rounder Ryan Perry looms in the background.

Stock Up

Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

Colorado’s uber-rangy shortstop inked a six-year, $31 million pact last winter on the heels of a studly debut season in 2007 (5.3 Value Wins), but a quadriceps injury hurt his fleetness afield and contributed to a rather quiet year at the plate (.313 wOBA, -10.1 Batting Runs) in ’08. Tulo’s off to a good start thus far, popping 3 homers in the early portion of the 2009 season.

Alberto Callaspo, Royals

With eight-figure hacker Jose Guillen hitting the DL with a groin injury, the “Mark Teahen, second baseman” experiment will likely be put on hold until late-April. With Teahen shifting back to right field, Callaspo will soak up some at-bats and play second in the interim. The erstwhile D-Back prospect isn’t especially patient at the dish and his power is downright Bloomquistian. However, he does make a ton of contact and could be worth a shot in deeper leagues. Think Mark Grudzielanek.

Chris Carpenter, Cardinals

Carpenter turned back the clock to 2006 this past week, beating up on the Pirates in a seven-inning masterpiece. Carp generated a boatload of groundballs and allowed nary a walk, all while tossing six different offerings. We shouldn’t infer too much from one outing, but a mended Carpenter would be a game-changer for both the Cardinals and fantasy owners.

Nick Swisher, Yankees

Swisher was pegged by many to bounce back from a “down” year at the plate in 2008 (very little changed in his offensive profile, save for a flukish dip in BABIP from .308 in ’07 to .251 in ’08). While it still remains to be seen how often he’ll be deployed, Swish has belted two early-season dingers to help his cause.

Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins

Bonifacio is rated as a “Stock Up” player here, but please folks, let’s not go overboard. There exists a tendency in the media to put a frame or a label around everything, trying to extract meaning from each and every event. Yes, Florida’s man at the hot corner has gotten off to a nice start, but he’s the same guy who has been traded twice and holds a career .278/.332/.384 minor league line. Because Bonifacio has gone 14-for-29 during the first week of the season, everyone notices. Had this hot streak occurred in mid-June, it’s possible that only Mama Bonifacio would be talking about it.

Seattle’s Erik Bedard clearly deserves mention here as well, but I’m planning something more extensive on the lefty for tomorrow.

Stock Down

Brett Myers, Phillies

Right now, Myers looks more like the guy demoted to Iron Pigdom last summer than Cole Hamels‘ strong sidekick. It’s not all bad (he has a 12/2 K/BB ratio), but Myers has served up 6 taters in 13 frames while throwing his 90 MPH heater less than 47% of the time. Brett won’t keep the insane 40 HR/FB% short of pitching in a Little League stadium, but hanging sliders and changeups are going to kill a pitcher in a park like Citizens Bank.

Josh Willingham, Nationals

Have you seen Josh Willingham? If so, please contact the Washington Nationals at 1500 South Capitol Street. “The Hammer” is currently hammered to the bench as a casualty of the Nats’ outfield glut, with 12 PA on the year.

Scott Lewis, Indians

Lewis entered the year with a job in the Indians’ rotation on the basis of a strong minor league track record and a plus changeup, but the flyball hurler with an unimposing fastball surrendered 2 big flys and 7 hits during his first start. He then was placed on the DL with a strained left forearm. Cleveland’s starting options might not be flashy, but there are a number of serviceable arms in waiting. The Ohio State product might have to wait for another shot.

Scott Olsen, Nationals

Have you seen Scott Olsen’s fastball? If so, contact the Nationals at 1500 South Capitol Street. Olsen was once among the brightest young moundsmen in the game, with low-90’s velocity and a promising slider, but his strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff in recent years. The 25 year-old southpaw has mysteriously lost 4 MPH on his cheese since 2006, falling from 90.9 MPH to just 86.9 MPH in 2009. Finesse stuff with ordinary control- that’s a bad combination.

Carl Pavano, Indians

I suppose that Pavano should get a gold star for not injuring himself (save for the ego) during his first start of the 2009 season, but man, was it ugly: 1 inning, 6 hits, 9 runs. Pavano still has some time to turn things around (his incentive cash won’t start kicking in until around start number eighteen), but you’ll want to avoid the Big Apple punch line regardless.

A few quick observations from the season’s first full slate of games…

Delmon Young Rides the Pine

It’s probably best not to get too worked up over lineups on the first day of the season, but the erstwhile golden boy of Tampa Bay’s farm system found himself plastered to the Twins’ bench. Granted, Young has been exasperating to watch. He puts the ball on the ground far more than a power threat should, and he swings at anything, really: strikes, balls, curves, sliders, low-flying planes, small animals…he’s basically taken a Vladimir Guerrero-type approach with Wilton Guerrero-like results.

All that being said, Young is still just 23 years of age and holds a career .318/.362/.518 minor league line, that production have come against players several years his senior. The Twins will have to slide four guys (Cuddyer, Kubel, Span and Young) between three slots (the corner outfield and DH). Kubel will take a seat versus lefties, but it’s still a bit disconcerting to see Delmon sat down against a right-hander (Felix Hernandez). Michael Cuddyer might be making a pretty penny, but he’s 30 and holds a career .341 wOBA. Young needs to see every day at-bats.

Elijah Dukes, Justin Upton follow suit

Is Jim Bowden still secretly assailing the Nationals’ decision-making process from afar? I’m not sure how else to explain the absence of Dukes in the starting lineup. He posted a .382 wOBA in 2008, showing secondary skills aplenty and kicking in defensive value to boot. A 24 year-old who might just be your best player, and he’s not guaranteed everyday play. As Dave Cameron put it, “Happy Opening Day, Nationals fans. Hope you weren’t planning on seeing the team’s best player.”

Upton, a 21 year-old wunderkind with even more upside, also found himself drinking Gatorade and flicking sunflower seeds instead of smacking line drives. Upton hit .197 during spring training- I really hope 60 lousy AB’s in March don’t weigh too heavily in Bob Melvin’s consciousness. Upton posted a 107 OPS+ in the majors at an age where most guys are in A-Ball. Choosing Eric Byrnes over that sort of talent just seems masochistic. Scrapaholics Anonymous- the first step is admitting that you have a Byrnes problem…

Drop Lee! Drop Sabathia! Sell! Sell! Sell!

Yeah, don’t do that. Not that you really need the reminder, but don’t let anything that occurs in the next few weeks override years of knowledge acquired about a player. If you want to run your fantasy team like a Jim Kramer, “Mad-Money” style outlet, then be prepared for a John Stewart-like beat down in the standings.

Detroit Tigers
Released DH Gary Sheffield.

Sheff cooked up some sour numbers in 2008, posting a mild .323 wOBA with a .225/.326/.400 line in 482 PA. His BABIP was a low .237, but the 40 year-old has been plagued by shoulder maladies and could be destined to join Fred McGriff in the “can someone pleeease sign me so I can get to 500 homers?” club. His inability to play the field limits his utility to potential employers. Sheffield may latch on somewhere else, but it’s been one heck of a career for the quick-wristed nomad. Sheff has a career .393 wOBA; he was highly productive everywhere he played, save for an unpleasant tenure in Milwaukee. Yet, he’s played for seven different teams, and could be on the verge of number eight. Abrasive? seemingly. Highly skilled? Undoubtedly.

Florida Marlins
Released 1B Dallas McPherson.

Following McPherson’s release, the Marlins lean further to the right than Fox News: bench bats Paulino, Helms, Andino and Carroll all bat from the right.

A Three True Outcomes hitter, McPherson was once a mammoth prospect with the Angels. Alas, back issues and serious qualms about contact ability have sufficiently road blocked his major league aspirations. A 6-4, 230 pound lefty, McPherson has a career .296/.380/.586 line in the minors. He was positively radioactive as an Isotope last season, batting .275/.379/.618 with 42 bombs. Don’t get too excited, though: he’s 28 and whiffed nearly 38% of the time with Albuquerque. His home park inflated runs by 18% over the 2006-2008 seasons, boosting tater production by 17 percent. As a result, Dallas’ Major League Equivalent line (MLE) was a far less tasty .201/.288/.410.

Houston Astros
Acquired INF Jeff Keppinger from the Reds in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

With Aaron Boone out of commission and Geoff Blum…being Geoff Blum, the ‘Stros wanted an extra infielder to help out on the left side of the infield. Keppinger essentially never whiffs (career 5.6 %), but that’s about the extent of his offensive virtues: he’s a career .287/.338/.390 hitter. The former Pirate, Met, Royal and Red will likely take on the responsibilities that were supposed to go to Boone, facing southpaws as part of a hot corner platoon with Blum. In 300 career major league PA versus lefties, Keppinger has managed a .351/.403/.515 line. I suppose it’s possible that Houston could shift Tejada to third and install Kep as short. However, both UZR (-19.3 runs/150 games) and Plus/Minus (-20 over the past 2 seasons) would kindly suggest that they don’t, thanks.