Sometimes you just can’t find a quip at the ready. You’re watching the all-star festivities, thinking about all the wonders of baseball and perusing the newest about Pitch F/X, Hit F/X, and now even Game F/X, and you think something will come. But there you are, and all you have is….

Kendry Morales – Projection systems often have trouble with breakouts, so maybe it’s not surprising that ZiPS projects Morales to basically halve his home run production from here on out, finishing with 23 home runs instead of the 26 or 27 he might otherwise be on pace for.

One can’t really blame the system for being pessimistic, however. He had only 19 home runs in 402 at-bats in the major and minor leagues combined last year, and only nine home runs in 401 total minor league at bats the year before. Why would this player approach 30 home runs?

Perhaps the pessimism also stems from Morales’ consistently low line drive percentages. When a player seems to lack home run power, the pundits fall back on the idea that he is a ‘line drive hitter’ or can ‘drive it in the gaps.’ Instead, it seems that Morales is the type of hitter that avoids the strikeout (16.9% career) in favor of putting the ball in play, often on the ground (44.9% ground ball rate). It certainly isn’t his line drive percentage (15.3% career, 17.5% this year).

One thing should be said: with a fly-ball rate over 40%, he could up the power. Lance Berkman and Adrian Gonzalez also own similar fly ball rates and have a little power. Morales’ HR/FB rate has increased every year and he may some day hit 30 home runs if only because he’s listed at 26 years old and has more baseball to play. He has also repeated AAA three times while waiting for his chance – he probably couldn’t be better prepared for this, and his peak is probably still on the way.

The year-27 peak theory has been disproved for the most part. An oft-referenced study by Schulz et al, done in 1994 by surveying the statistics of over 388 players that were active in 1965, found that major league baseball players peak between 25 and 28 years old. The reason for the range is that their peak is usually determined by their age when they broke into the majors. It follows that you would peak later if you debuted later. But the law of the bell curve also applies, and the later you join the league, the earlier you leave the league for the most part.

If this Cuban first baseman is actually 26 years old, he’s joining the majors early enough to have better years in front of him. For those in keeper leagues, this first half at least shows that he belongs and will play long enough to probably have a better year in sometime soon in his career.

However, if he’s closer to 30 and the owner of a false birth certificate like many other Cuban players, this is most likely his peak and he probably won’t be a starter in the majors for very long. That much we do know about the bell curves of major league players as it relates to their ages and their performances.

Guys,
Haven’t seen a mailbag since the 14th and wanted to get your thoughts on this.

Thanks, Big Oil

Thanks for the question, and since readership has been high for these, we will continue to do them.

My initial response is that I don’t like the deal. If you only keep four, you always want to consolidate your keeper talent. That much is probably not news to you, but Grady Sizemore blend of speed and power is matched by only a handful of players. Owning him puts you ahead of the game because you don’t need to pick a speed-only guy high in the draft – if at all.

Upon a closer review, I can see the enticement. Your current third basemen are not up to snuff in a mixed league, and though you are competing now, you may fall behind without Aramis Ramirez and his considerable production at the hot corner. I don’t fault you for looking for a better option at third base, not at all.

However, I still go with ‘no,’ even after more reflection. I don’t want you to keep a second 1B (Adrian Gonzalez is good, but first base is a deep position), and Jay Bruce and Justin Upton are exciting players that probably won’t steal like Sizemore. Upton is close, as he is on pace for over 15 stolen bases this year and has always shown good speed in the minors.

But speed is not his game like Sizemore’s. Consider that Sizemore stole 96 bases in the minors (in 529 games) while Upton totaled 36 in 231 games. Er, that was a suprising statistic. Guess it makes sense that Upton’s four-component speed score of 6.7 this year would better Sizemore’s since 2006.

Hmmm. On second thought, fly that flag. Go for the win and do the trade. Upton looks like a good consolation prize right now, and at 21 is coming into his own. You can deal your surplus 3B at the end of the year if you want to consolidate keepers.

In a 12 team mixed league, I have a staff of Sabathia, Chamberlain, Greinke, Kershaw, Porcello, Maholm, and Sonnanstine. I am going with 2 closers and am using Joba’s RP status to plug in an extra starter. I also had Kawakami on my bench, but dumped him and someone else scooped him up. I am growing impatient with Sonny and am wondering if I should cut bait and pick up someone else. I am near the top of ERA, WHIP, Wins, but could use more Ks and could go back to 3 true RPs. Any thoughts?

Thanks! K.G.

Andy Sonnanstine shouldn’t be owned in most formats. Seriously, I took a longer look at his stats than I deemed necessary, and I still didn’t see anything I liked.

His mediocre stuff just holds him back. While he’s still not walking too many to be productive (2.92 per nine), he’s still not striking out enough to really matter (5.29 K/9). How is he going to strike people out with an 87 MPH fastball, an 87 MPH cutter, a 77 MPH slider, and a 74 MPH curveball? That’s just too many pitches at the same speed with similar movement.

Look at this chart for his vertical movement. You can see why he’s suddenly using his cutter more, because it’s the only one that moves differently on the vertical plane. Consider that his cutter used to move less, and the possibility of a regression to an already-unattractive mean is not a happy thought.

Sonnanstine is a decent number four or five in real life baseball, just on the basis of his stinginess with the walks. That shouldn’t be too attractive in fantasy baseball. Go find a reliever that might get you some saves. (Oh and trade Paul Maholm high, because he’s got too much in common with Sonnanstine to get comfortable with him.)

Our email address for this feature is rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com, so send in your questions! Remember to try to give us all relevant information in the fewest words possible, and you’ll be all set.

Stock Up

Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies

de la Rosa sure has played roster hot-potato for a lefty cooking in the low-90’s, having been a part of four trades while seeing time in the Arizona, Boston, Milwaukee, Kansas City and Colorado systems. The 28 year-old, as covered in great detail by Eno Sarris, has kicked off the 2009 season with a 2.99 FIP, 9.49 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9 in 42.2 innings. de la Rosa has been fortunate in the home run department (0.42 HR/9, 4.9 HR/FB%), but his XFIP (based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR rate) still checks in at a tidy 3.70. If de la Rosa can keep the walks at a moderate rate, he could be an asset in most any league.

Joe Mauer, Twins

I know- Mauer has long been a fantasy darling, as a line-drive hitting backstop with excellent control of the zone. But the 26 year-old’s power outburst to begin the ’09 season bears mentioning: he’s already popped 6 out of the park in 73 plate appearances (this after hitting a combined 16 dingers in over 1,100 PA’s during the 2007 and 2008 seasons). Don’t expect him to suddenly go all Mike Piazza on the league, but Mauer would only add to his immense value if he could loft 20 big flys in addition to his high-contact, patient act at the dish.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies

Ubaldo has done a better job of limiting the base on balls in recent starts, with 22 K’s, 6 walks and 6 runs allowed in 27 frames during the month of May. Like de la Rosa, Jimenez has had some good luck on flyballs (0.20 HR/9, 2.4 HR/FB%), but his XFIP is a decent 4.43 despite a disastrous April (16 runs, 19/17 K/BB in 19 IP). The combination of whiffs (8.02 K/9) and worm-burners (50 GB%) makes the 25 year-old Dominican Republic native an intriguing trade target.

Jayson Werth, Phillies

The whole “is player X overrated/underrated” debate is obviously subjective, but Werth has to place among the more underappreciated talents in the game. How many people realize just how valuable this rangy, 6-2, 225 pounder has been for the Phillies since 2007? A 3.4 Win player in partial playing time in ’07, Werth posted a 5.3 WAR season for the Phillies in 2008 (tied with Jimmy Rollins for 2nd in a star-studded lineup), and he’s produced 1.4 wins already in 2009. With a .415 wOBA (.294/.396/.540) and 8 steals in 9 attempts, Werth is producing in every facet of the game. He’s even making a little more contact (23.8 K%, 29.9 career average), while raking against righties (.849 OPS) in addition to his usual lefty lashing (1.142 OPS).

Rick Porcello, Tigers

Porcello has gone from Seton Hall Prep to viable major league starter in less than two seasons, as the 20 year-old sinkerballer has allowed 2 runs in 18 innings during the month of May. Porcello isn’t blowing batters away (5.67 K/9), but he’s stingy with the free passes (2.95 BB/9) and generates grounders (53.6 GB%) with the sinker, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup. Porcello is doing a better job of throwing his three quality offerings (particularly his curveball) from the same arm-slot. Check out his release point chart against the Yankees, in a 3.2 inning, 6 run drubbing on April 29th…

…and his release point in a 6-inning, 1 run gem against the A’s on May 16th…

Stock Down

Alexei Ramirez, White Sox

There has been a general malaise over the South Side bats in 2009 (the Pale Hose rank 26th in wOBA), and Ramirez is one of the main culprits. Ramirez has been slightly more “patient” in ’09 ( we’re speaking in incredibly relative terms here: 5.6 BB%, 37.2 Outside Swing Percentage in 2009 compared to 3.6 BB% and a 42.7 O-Swing% in ’08), but the “Cuban Missile” has failed to launch, with a sickly .243 wOBA. His BABIP sits at a very low .238, so some positive regression should be expected. Still, his .051 ISO is downright Bloomquistian. This is what you sign up for if you gamble on a batting average-dependent player: when those hits don’t fall in, that player’s value craters.

Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals

Just when it looked like Wellemeyer might establish himself as a competent mid-rotation cog (4.51 FIP in 2008), he has gone and reminded everyone why he’s a former Cub, Marlin and Royal. His K rate has dipped from 6.29 per nine in ’08 to 5.28 in ’09, with his BB/9 inflating from 2.91 to 4.11. Wellemeyer’s go-to secondary offering last year was a mid-80’s slider (thrown 23.6% of the time), but his slider usage is down this season (12.9%), as is its velocity (83.1 MPH). In place of the hard breaker, the 30 year-old has mixed in a few high-80’s cutters and some high-70’s curves. The kitchen sink approach does not appear to be working.

Josh Fields, White Sox

The former first-rounder out of Oklahoma State has been a wreck at the plate this season, whiffing 32.8 percent of the time while making Scott Podsednik look like a power hitter (.096 ISO). That’s quite the fall for a guy who authored a .236 ISO during the 2007 season. At 26 years old and coming off a mundane season spent at AAA Charlotte in 2008 (.347 wOBA, .772 OPS), Fields isn’t such a highly-regarded youngster than he can continue to post oh-fer’s and stay in the lineup. He’s not on the Drew Henson path of doom quite yet, but he might want to take a few snaps in between BP sessions.

Armando Galarraga, Tigers

As a free-talent pickup from Texas, Galarraga was a pleasant surprise for the Tigers in 2008 while many other Detroit hurlers crashed and burned. A good deal of regression should have been expected this season (Galarraga’s 3.73 ERA far surpassed his 4.88 FIP), but we weren’t quite anticipating this kind of spontaneous combustion. While Verlander, Jackson and Porcello deal, 2008’s nominal ace has a 5.62 FIP and a walk rate closing in on five batters per nine innings. His last outing on May 17th was a 0.2 inning, 5-run disaster against the light-hitting A’s.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres

The Crushin’ Russian has not lived up to his nickname so far in 2009. Kouzmanoff’s Isolated Power figure comes in at just .101, continuing a three-year downward trend: his ISO was .182 in 2007 (his first full season in the big leagues) and .173 in 2008. The 28 year-old’s wOBA’s have dipped from .339 in ’07, .316 in ’08 and just .284 in 2009. The Padres are giving some thought to putting Chase Headley back at the hot corner, to make room for mammoth 6-6, 275 pound prospect Kyle Blanks in left field (it’s a stretch, but he’s more athletic than you might think). Kouzmanoff will need to show something in the coming weeks if he hopes to avoid being usurped.

A question in the mailbag from L. S. this week ended simply: Is Jorge De La Rosa for real?

His 2.99 FIP seems to suggest that his good start is for real, but ZiPS has him putting up a 4.71 ERA for the rest of the season. Perhaps this is a nod to his 5.32 career ERA. Many projection systems have trouble with breakout seasons, however, and there’s ample evidence that we are actually witnessing just such a step forward from a talented pitcher that could be peaking in his 27th year on the planet.

For one, the ‘luck’ numbers do not point definitively towards an unsustainable start to the year. His 69.1% strand rate is close to the league average as well as his own average (67.7%). His BABIP is .298, and while that is lower than his career .325 number, it doesn’t scream luck, especially given the small sample size.

Sure, this sample size also could be skewing his strikeout and walk rates, but for now they are both (9.49 K/9; 3.38 BB/9) right near the rates he put up in 130 innings of 4.06 FIP baseball last year (8.86 K/9, 4.29 BB/9). If the trend holds steady, the rates also show a natural progression that is encouraging. His strikeout rate has improved for three straight years, and his walk rate is at its lowest in his career. That’s good work if it proves to be true.

The only ‘luck’ worries come from his fly ball numbers. He’s sporting a 26.8% infield fly rate, and as those balls turn into long fly balls, his 4.9% HR/FB number should rise up to his 10.3% rate. The surprising thing is that with such a great HR/9 number (0.42), De La Rosa can actually continue to be productive – even if he doubles his home runs per nine as his career number suggest he will.

Why all the optimism? What’s changed? In short, this young Rockies pitcher has changed his entire approach to pitching over the past years.

Take a look at his pitch selection, and the difference between now and his first extended burn in 2007 is stark. When he came into the league, De La Rosa was throwing his 92-93 MPH fastball 62.3% of the time, and his 83 MPH slider 1.7% of the time. This year, he’s throwing those two pitches 56.1% and 23.3% of the time, respectively. He’s also cut his use of his 75 MPH curveball in half, from 13.1% to 6.5% this year.

A peek at his most recent pitch F/X game graph gives us some insight into this changed usage pattern. Take a look at his release points.

Despite a consistent release point for most of his pitches, De La Rosa lets his curve ball go at a distinctly higher point than his other pitches. This could lead to batters identifying the pitch early and laying off.

Now take a look at the movement of his pitches.

Given that the curve ball has the most horizontal and vertical movement of any of his pitches, it also follows that the curve ends up being called a ball many times, especially if batters are noticing the different release point and watching it into the catcher’s glove. It also makes sense that his most effective three pitches might be the three that release at the same spot and break as differently as his fastball, changeup and slider do.

Could it be that his reduced walk rate can be attributed to his reduced use of the curveball? Correlation is of course not causation, so it’s hard to say without knowing the strike percentage of each of his pitches. But De La Rosa is a changed pitcher – that much seems clear. And that counts as a good thing.

Stock Up

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto displayed his superb talent last season, though his tendency to cough up homers and occasionally lose the strike zone dragged down his overall line. In 2009, he’s made progress on both fronts. In 39.2 frames, Cueto has a 3.13 FIP, the product of a 2.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.32 in ’08) and 0.45 HR/9. There’s certainly been some lucky bounces here to produce that 1.59 ERA: Cueto’s BABIP is .260, his strand rate is near 90% and his 4.2 HR/FB% is extremely low.

On the bright side, he’s shaved a little more than one walk per nine innings off his 2008 total (2.50 BB/9 this year, 3.52 in ’08). While his K rate (7.26 K/9) is down from last season (8.17), the overall net effect is positive (as Justin pointed out in the comments section, Cueto’s K/PA figure is slightly higher this year due to his efficiency). Cueto’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), based on a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, checks in at 4.34 (4.62 last season).

Jay Bruce, Reds

It’s the all-Reds edition of Stock Watch! A 22 year-old lefty with immense power, Bruce has adapted to major league pitching faster than most anticipated. With a .391 wOBA, 10 big flys and a sweet .262/.342/.570 line, Bruce has certainly been The Boss in 2009. Happily, his control of the strike zone (his biggest hurdle) has improved. Bruce has drawn a walk 10.1% of the time in 2009 (7.4% last year), whiffed less often (20.6% in ’09, 26.6% in ’08), and has cut his Outside-Swing percentage from 30.4% to 25.7%. In other words, he’s already among the best outfielders in the game, and he’ll only get better from here.

Carl Crawford, Rays

Crawford has probably stolen about six bases since I started typing this sentence. Tampa’s swift left fielder has been an absolute terror on the base paths in 2009, going a perfect 22-for-22 on stolen base attempts. With 3 more thefts, Crawford will match his total from an injury-marred 2008 season. If we use Tom Tango’s SB run value of +.19, then Crawford is closing in on half a win added in the stolen base department already.

Fortunately, Crawford is showing progress in other facets of his game as well. His Outside Swing% is down to 24.8%, from last year’s hacktastic 31.5% mark (24.4% MLB average). His 8.8% walk rate isn’t awe-inspiring, but it is the highest mark of his career. With 1.7 Wins Above Replacement, Crawford has been one of the ten most productive position players in the game.

Edwin Jackson, Tigers

Let’s give credit where it’s due: Jackson has been pretty darned effective in 2009. He came to Detroit with a reputation as a radar-gun curiosity who didn’t miss many bats or control the zone particularly well, but he’s making strides. Jackson isn’t a 2.60 ERA pitcher (duh), but his K/BB ratio is an impressive 3.18. With 7 K’s per nine and 2.20 BB/9, Jackson holds a 3.51 FIP. He’s looking more legitimate by the start.

David Wright, Mets

Wright’s early-season scuffle raised both panic and ire, but he’s just fine now. His wOBA is back up to .367, and he’s popped enough extra-base hits of late to raise his Isolated Power to .174. Wright is batting .364/.436/.697 in May. Hopefully, you didn’t sell low. One aspect of Wright’s game that is curiously diminishing is his stolen base ability. He was 34-for-39 in 2007, 15-for-20 in 2008 and just 5-for-10 in 2009.

Stock Down

Scott Kazmir, Rays

What happens to a control-challenged southpaw when he loses his ability to dominate hitters? Take a gander at Kazmir to find out. The 25 year-old’s walk rate has increased for a fourth straight season (4.97 BB/9), but he’s just not fooling batters the way he used to (7.11 K/9). Kazmir’s fastball velocity has dipped from 91.7 MPH in 2008 to just 89.9 MPH in 2009, and his hard, mid-80’s power slider is now more of a low-octane frisbee (80.4 MPH). With just 46.4% of his offerings crossing home plate (48.9% MLB average) and opponents making contact 84.3% of the time (75.1% career average), something is wrong with the Rays’ former ace.

Mike Aviles, Royals

Tony Pena Jr. might be on the DL, but Aviles has compensated by doing his best impression. After an unexpectedly productive rookie season, Aviles’ bat has flat lined in 2009. Impatient to a fault (2.9 BB%), the 28 year-old isn’t getting any favorable bounces on balls put in play (.247 BABIP). His nefarious .226 wOBA is fifth-worst among all batters, and he’s been nearly a win below replacement level with the lumber already. With lackluster play in the field as well (-12.6 UZR/150), Aviles has been an anchor on Kansas City’s hopes of staying competitive.

Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks

Never exactly known for his feats of strength (career .150 ISO and .431 SLG%), Jackson has been downright punchless this season. His microscopic .071 ISO ranks among the worst in the game. Jackson is not this bad, mind you: his .210 BABIP is incredibly low, so he should revert back more toward his usual level of production as the season goes on. The question is: is that enough? Underpowered as a first baseman, Jackson’s work in left field is still under review. Singles-hitting corner players aren’t exactly in vogue, so the 27 year-old is going to have to show some thump to do more good than harm to Arizona’s dwindling playoff chances.

Jeff Francoeur, Braves

Francoeur is this generation’s Joe Carter, compiling counting stats that mask the fact that he’s sort of a drag on his team’s offense. Frenchy continues to show next to no progress in terms of plate discipline, wildly hacking at 34.6% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Not coincidentally, his First-Pitch Strike% is a career-high 71 percent (57.6% MLB average). Francoeur has gotten behind 0-1 or put the ball in play on the first pitch more than any other batter in the majors. With a wretched .290 OBP and little pop (.136 ISO), he’s produced a .299 wOBA. Showing apparent apathy toward working the count, Francoeur is an absolute mess at the plate right now.

Ian Snell, Pirates

Snell scarcely resembles the guy who posted a 4.01 FIP during the 2007 campaign. After walking 2.94 batters per nine innings during that year, Snell’s control took a giant leap back in ’08 (4.87 BB/9) and continues to go south in 2009 (5.4 BB/9). His K rate, 8.18 during his first full season in the big in 2006, checks in at just 6.08 this year (the continuation of a four-year decline). He’s not fooling much of anyone, and has put just 44.3% of his pitches within the strike zone (48.9% MLB average). Snell will continue to take his turns on a pitching-starved staff, but he hasn’t pitched like an above-average starter in quite some time. His FIP is 5.33.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

With 13 whiffs and no walks, Mo has been his typically dominant self. He’s given up 2 homers in 9.2 innings (half of his total in each of the past two seasons), but there’s no cause for concern here.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon just hasn’t quite been himself this season: he’s issued 7 walks in 12 innings, just one fewer free pass than he gave up in 69.1 IP in 2008. Opposing batters seem content to wait Boston’s closer out, swinging at 47.5% of his pitches thus far (55.6% in 2008).

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood is racking up the K’s (16 in 10 IP), but he has also walked 5 and owns a -0.14 WPA. As with Papelbon, opponents are keeping the bat on the shoulder more often as Wood works out his control kinks: his outside swing percentage (31.3% last year) is just 19.7% in 2009. Cleveland’s ‘pen has been as prone to fluctuation as any unit in recent memory, and ’09 has been a down year: Indians relievers own the third worst WPA mark in the big leagues, at -2.89.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria returned from bout with shoulder soreness to complete a five-out appearance on May 2nd against the Twins. He racked up a save the following night, and now boasts a 1.62 FIP in 7.2 innings.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

6-for-6 in save ops, Jenks has an 8/4 K/BB in 9 innings pitched. His fastball velocity is up a tick from 2008 (from 93.8 to 94.8), though his outside-swing% is down for the third straight season (29.9% in ’07, 28.3 in ’08 and 23.5 in ’09).

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has served up a couple early-season dingers, but he’s been his usual stellar self. Nathan’s low-to-mid-90’s heat and sharp high-80’s slider have gotten batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone 35.5% of the time (24.4% MLB average), which ranks in the top 10 among all relievers.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco has been untouchable in 2009: 8-for-8 in save chances, Francisco has yet to be scored upon in 13.2 innings of work. His 1.82 WPA leads all relievers, and he’s inducing outside swings at a higher rate than in recent years (30 outside swing%; 22.3% career average).

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Battling the flu, Ziegler made his first appearance since April 25th last night (hey, it beats pulling your calf). With all the maladies afflicting Garciaparra, Chavez, Ellis and Casilla, among others, I’d bring my own shaman to the ballpark if I were an Athletic. Ziegler struck out two in a scoreless inning against the Angels last night, and has not surrendered a run in his last 8.1 innings pitched.

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow on DL), Mariners

Morrow hit the DL with biceps tendinitis, but he’s expected back during the weekend or early next week. Aardsma gets the call until then. The erstwhile Cub, Giant, White Sock and Red Sock has shown why teams continue to be intrigued by his hard fastball/slider combo (11 K in 12. IP), but also why so many clubs have given up on him (8 BB).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes is missing bats (13 K in 9.2 innings), and his FIP is an adequate 3.70. However, a mind-warping .457 BABIP has made the new Angels stopper look like a punching bag (6.52 ERA). Not that everything is hunky-dory: he’s located just 44.3% of his pitches for strikes (52.3% career average), which helps explain the four walks.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs is doing everything in his power to keep the ninth-inning glamour role for good. In 15.1 frames, he has a ridiculous 20/0 K/BB ratio, and he’s been scored upon just twice. His FIP is 0.77, with a near-70 percent groundball rate. Hitters are flailing at Downs’ sinker/curve mix, with a 38.5% outside-swing% that ranks 6th among all relievers.

Watch Your Back

George Sherrill/Chris Ray/Jim Johnson/Danys Baez(?), Orioles

Sherrill is officially on the ropes as Baltimore’s stopper, not a shocking development given his 2 blown saves and 3 dingers allowed in 11.2 frames. Ray, toting mid-90’s cheese and a mid-80’s slider, has whiffed 10 batters in 8.1 frames, though he’s also walked 4 (3 unintentionally).

Johnson (0.62) and Baez (0.42) rank one and two in terms of Baltimore WPA, though Baez is said not to be a candidate at the moment. Mostly a high-priced disaster with the O’s, Baez has a 13/5 K/BB ratio in 15.2 innings this year. Johnson, meanwhile, continues to post mediocre peripherals while posting superficially impressive ERA’s (2.45 ERA, 4.45 FIP in 2009).

Troy Percival, Rays

Percival racked up just about the easiest save he’ll ever get yesterday, retiring one Orioles batter. The 39 year-old has worked just 7.2 innings in 9 appearances, throwing less than a full frame on three occasions.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Would you believe that Rodney (he of 4.43 career BB/9) actually leads all relievers in first-pitch strike percentage, at 82.1%? The typically combustible flame-thrower has tossed 60.7% of his pitches within the strike zone (fourth among all relievers), and he’s walked just one batter in 10 innings. Rodney has surrendered 5 runs, but with a 3.38 FIP (the lowest of his career), he really hasn’t been half bad.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Brad Lidge, Phillies

With 4 taters surrendered in 10.2 IP, Lidge has already served up double the amount of homers in 2009 as he did during the 2008 season. Just as his wacky-low 3.9 HR/FB% from last year was bound to rise, his 28.6 HR/FB% in ’09 will inevitably drop. Attempting to pitch through pain in his right knee, Lidge has seen his fastball velocity dip a few MPH (94.3 in ’08, 92.8 in ’09), while posting a first-pitch strike percentage of just 46.2 (57.7 MLB average).

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod has K’d 16 hitters in 11.2 frames, while going 7-for-7 in save ops. So far, Rodriguez has attempted to let opponents get themselves out: he’s thrown just 39.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (5th-lowest among relievers). While Rodriguez has walked six, hitters have acquiesced by chasing offerings outside of the zone 33.9% of the time (24.4 MLB average).

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton just keeps on rolling: with an eye-popping 25 K’s in 14 IP, LA’s ninth-inning beast has punched out more batters per nine innings than any other reliever. 8-for-9 in save chances, Broxton holds the third-best WPA among relievers (1.32), and his 63.5% contact rate is fourth-lowest. When opponents aren’t helplessly swinging and missing, they’re chopping the ball into the infield dirt (57.9 GB%).

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell has yet to blow a save chance, with 8 saves in 8 opportunities. His 13/2 K/BB ratio in 10.2 IP has led to a 1.31 FIP and a 1.48 WPA that ranks second among all relievers. His mid-90’s gas and low-80’s slider are jamming hitters with great frequency: his IF/FB% is 30 percent.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Arizona’s covert closer has a dominant 14/1 K/BB ratio in 10 innings, with a microscopic 0.68 FIP. His groundball rate is just absurd (78.3%), the product of a bushel of swings on outside pitches (his outside swing percentage is 34.6%). With the second-best first-pitch strike percentage among ‘pen arms (79.5%), Qualls is often getting ahead 0-1 or inducing contact on the first offering.

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

After starting off the year strong (0 runs in his first 5.2 innings), Capps has gotten crunched in three straight appearances (a combined 7 runs in 2.2 innings), including a 4-run disaster piece against the Brewers on May 4th. Capps will be shut down for a few days with what’s being called a “minor elbow ailment.” The news is disconcerting, given the 25 year-old’s bout with shoulder bursitis last season that cost him about 2 months. Something is off-kilter: normally as precise as any reliever in the majors (with a career BB/9 of 1.48), Capps has issued 4 walks in 8.1 IP.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

After an ugly outing versus the Astros on April 27th (3 R and a loss), Cordero has tossed two scoreless innings. Last week, we noted that Cordero (throwing his mid-90’s fastball nearly three-quarters of the time) has essentially said to hitters, “I’m throwing as hard as I can, now try and hit it.” Thus far, that approach has led to a 2.18 FIP, but his GB% has fallen to 29.6%. Cordero as yet to allow a homer, but flyball tendencies typically don’t fly at Great American Ballpark.

LaTroy Hawkins (Jose Valverde on DL), Astros

Valverde’s calf injury turned out to be more serious than expected, requiring the draining of fluid and a DL stint. In his stead, Hawkins will take on ninth innings duties. Worth noting: Hawkins’ strikeout rates had fallen through the floor in 2006 and 2007 (4.03 and 4.72 K/9, respectively), but that number rebounded to 6.97 in 2008 and sits at 8.53 in 12.2 IP this season. The 36 year-old never lost much fastball velocity during those down years, though he is relying more heavily on a high-80’s slider over the past two seasons.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson has battled his control a bit over his last two appearances, walking 3 in 2.1 IP in two appearances versus the Rockies. While Wilson isn’t known for his fine touch, he’s not a walk-the-yard type, either. Yet, hitters just aren’t swinging at what Wilson offers. Last week, we noted his rapidly decreasing outside-swing% (down to just 13.9% in ’09). Batters are also increasingly laying off pitches over the plate (his Z-Swing% is 57.6%, compared to the 65.7% MLB average). Overall, opponents have offered at just 34.1% of Wilson’s pitches, second-lowest among all relievers. What gives, Giants fans?

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

So, far, so good for Hoffman. He has a 5/0 K/BB ratio and 4 saves in 5 innings. The sample size is too small to glean a whole lot from, but Hoffman (an extreme flyball pitcher) has a 66.7 GB%. Also, he’s decreased the use of his signature changeup for the second straight season, mixing in more sliders in its place.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Lindstrom has four clean appearances since the unmitigated disaster that was his April 24th appearance against the Phillies. Still, his season totals will be feeling the pain for months to come: his FIP is 6.38, and his WPA is -0.41. Such is the life of the reliever: one bad appearance can put a serious damper on your numbers.

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel (once off the DL), Nationals

Can we rule out anyone here, really? Collectively, Nats relievers have a macabre -3.24 WPA, worst in the major leagues. Kip Wells (he of a 4/7 K/BB ratio in 9 IP) is the “leader” in the WPA clubhouse, with 0.38. Bring us your busted prospects (Hinckley, Mock), your retreads (Wells, Tavarez), your discarded Fish (Kensing). Where art thou, Joe Beimel? Beimel will probably get a shot once he’s off the DL, by process of elimination.

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Gonzalez has pitched relatively well thus far, with 16 K’s in 9.2 IP. Unfortunately, his .444 BABIP has led to a crappy 4.66 ERA. Gonzo’s control will likely always keep him from being a truly elite reliever, but he’s a solid buy-low candidate.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Gregg just hasn’t located his pitches: with 9 free passes in 12.2 IP and just 41.8 percent of his offerings coming across the dish (10th-worst among relievers), he has a -0.07 WPA and a 5.15 FIP. Luckily for Gregg, his principal competition (Carlos Marmol) has walked 9 batters in his last 4.1 IP while battling a balky knee.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

What in the name of closer facial hair has gotten into Franklin? The historically underpowered 36 year-old has a 10/2 K/BB ratio in 11.1 frames, with 7 saves and nary a run allowed. Throwing a fastball, cutter, curve, change and a splitter, Franklin has never punched out more than 6.89 batters per nine innings (all the way back in 2001 with the M’s), and his career whiff rate sits at 4.89. Color me skeptical, but his 1.30 WPA ranks 4th among relievers.

Huston Street, Rockies

Talk about a bad week: Manny Corpas goes from closer to one false step away from Colorado Springs. Corpas surely hasn’t been a clamp-down reliever, but his FIP (4.02) is considerably better than his 6.75 ERA. When balls put in play are falling for hits at a Ted Williams-like pace (.404 BABIP), you’re going to struggle.

Street, meanwhile, is back in the saddle after a similar demotion in April. His K/BB ratio is strong (12/2 in 11.1 IP), but he’s surrendered 3 homers already, which has led to a 5.56 ERA. Neither one of these guys has been as arson-worthy as they appear at first glance, though both also fall short of qualifying as late-inning assets.

Stock Up

Andruw Jones, Rangers

Remember the state of Jones’ career one year ago? He was coming off an incredulously bad beginning with the Dodgers (.159/.282/.250 last April), on his way to an apocalyptic .234 wOBA and -17.9 Batting Runs in just 238 PA. It was a startlingly abrupt fall for a guy who had posted 3.6 Wins Above Replacement in a “down” 2007 season. Essentially given a settlement package by the Dodgers to leave LA and never, ever return, Jones has crushed the ball thus far with the Rangers. The corpulent out-maker of ’08 is nowhere to be found, as the 32 year-old has a .507 wOBA (.333/.500/.718) in 52 plate appearances. With Jones channeling his inner Barry Bonds, David Murphy getting in touch with his inner Juan Pierre (.260 wOBA) and Josh Hamilton hitting the DL (finding his inner Milton Bradley?), Andruw should definitely be on your radar.

Dexter Fowler, Rockies

A lanky 6-4 center fielder endowed with a full complement of tools, Fowler is off to an excellent start with Colorado. Aside from his five SB bonanza versus Padres righty Chris Young, Fowler has a .363 wOBA in 82 PA after jumping straight from Double-A. He’s working the count well (10 BB%, 19.7 Outside-Swing%), has shown some pop (.153 Isolated Power) and he’s 9-for-10 in the steals department (a welcome change for a guy whose raw speed had produced a pernicious 66.4% SB success rate over the past three minor league seasons). The 23 year-old switch-hitter has earned an everyday gig with the Rockies, and his broad skill-set makes him well worth acquiring.

Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox

When Youkilis slugged .569 and thumped 29 homers in 2008, most figured that his power numbers would regress more toward his career averages in 2009. After all, his career-high SLG% prior to that was .453, in 2007. So far, the 30 year-old has done his best to quash those thoughts: with 6 dingers and a .744 slugging percentage, Youkilis has produced a .528 wOBA that leads all major league hitters. After four straight seasons of decreasing walks and increasing Outside-Swing percentages (chronicled in more detail here), Youk is drawing free passes at a career-high 15.7% clip.

Adam Jones, Orioles

Jones was covered here a few weeks ago, but his significant progress with the lumber deserves further mention. Jones was among the most free swingers in the game during the 2008 season (his 36.2 Outside-Swing% was leaps and bounds above the 25.4% MLB average, and ranked 9th-highest among all hitters), but he’s curtailed that Francoeur-esque approach in 2009. His O-Swing% is down to a more reasonable 26.5%, and his walk rate his climbed to 8.8% from a paltry 4.6% in ’08. As a result, the 23 year-old has put himself in the hole with less frequency this season: his First-Pitch Strike% has fallen from 66% in 2008 to 59.1% in 2009 (57.6% MLB average). No, he won’t come anywhere close to hitting .355, but Jones’ more enlightened plate approach is a welcome sight.

Yovani Gallardo, Brewers

Gallardo has been every bit the ace he was billed as, with a slick 3.78 K/BB ratio and a 3.37 FIP. He’s benefitting from a .220 BABIP, but with 8.83 K’s per nine, 2.34 BB/9 and a greater number of grounders (47.7 GB%, compared to a 38.7% career average), Gallardo has the skills to remain among the very best in the NL.

Stock Down

David Ortiz, Red Sox

During the off-season, I wondered if the days of “Big Papi” were now a relic of the past, to be replaced by the much-less-catchy “Medium Papi” era. Right about now, Boston would love to have even a mildly productive Papi: the 33 year-old has a sordid .271 wOBA in 114 PA. Ortiz has been uncharacteristically impatient at the dish: his 28.2 Outside-Swing% is well above last year’s 20.6% mark and his 18.3% career average. He’s also making more contact on those outside pitches (59.4 Outside-Contact%, 53.4% in 2008), likely meaning he’s been making more weak contact on “pitcher’s pitches” off the plate. Combine the hacking with an ISO that looks like a misprint (.094) and a tendency to get jammed (his Infield/FB% is 18.6%, compared to an 8.3% career average), and you have a fellow who has produced -6.8 batting runs on the season.

Daniel Cabrera, Nationals

The Nats brought in Cabrera from the O’s this past offseason, hoping to find even remnants of the 6-7, hard-throwing groundball pitcher who looked highly promising during the middle part of the aughts. Unfortunately, Cabrera’s skills have eroded even further this season. His K rate (just 4.75 in ’08, after sitting in the 7-9 range earlier in his career) has dropped to a microscopic 3.33 per nine innings, and he’s issuing an absurd number of free passes (6.29 BB/9). Cabrera sat at 96.2 MPH with his heater in 2005, yet he’s barely cracking 90 this season (90.5 MPH, down over 2 MPH from last season).

Perhaps in recognition of his diminished fastball, Cabrera is mixing in more breaking pitches: his league-high fastball usage in 2008 (82.5%) has been ratcheted down to 67.9%, with more sliders and changeups instead. Unfortunately, he has next to no control of those secondary offerings, either: just 41.8% of his pitches have crossed home plate (48.9% MLB average). The result of all this ugliness is a 5.72 FIP. Cabrera won’t turn 28 until the end of the month, yet it seems as though he’s completely lost the ability to pitch at the major league level within a span of four seasons.

Joe Saunders, Angels

How long can Saunders keep this act up? He posted a 3.41 ERA last season, but a low whiff rate (4.68 K/9) and good fortune on balls in play (.267 BABIP) indicated that regression would find him: his FIP was a less-impressive 4.36. In 2009, Saunders has posted an identical 3.41 ERA in 31.2 frames, yet his FIP has trailed further south (4.87), while his strikeout total (2.56 K/9) would make Kirk Rueter blush. Again benefitting from a low BABIP (.252), Saunders is a great sell-high candidate.

Travis Hafner, Indians

Wither Pronk? Hafner (coming off an ugly, injury-marred 2008 season) had been doing his best “Hulk Smash” impression in the early portion of the season, posting a .394 wOBA and a .270 ISO. Unfortunately, his surgically repaired shoulder again acted up, pushing him to the DL. On the positive side, Hafner’s absence should open the door for the recently recalled Matt LaPorta.

Oliver Perez, Mets

Perez’s scattershot control has come completely off the rails in 2009. Never known for painting the corners, Perez has issued 8.72 BB/9 this year, with a near-ten ERA and a 6.17 FIP. When he’s not walking the yard, Ollie has surrendered line drives at a 29% clip. Batters have understandably plastered the lumber to their shoulders, chasing Perez’s outside offerings just 13.2% of the time (the lowest rate among starters). The 27 year-old’s fastball is coming in at 89.2 MPH (down two ticks from last year). Is Perez hurt? And if not, isn’t that almost worse?

With a month’s worth of games in the books, let’s take a quick look at the starting pitchers who have significantly over performed or underperformed, based on their Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). By taking a gander at those core numbers (strikeouts, walks, homers), we can get a better idea of which hot starts are unlikely to last or which “struggling” starters might be in for a rebound. Here’s a recap of those who have posted an ERA significantly higher than their FIP would indicate. These are the guys who will very likely post better numbers in the coming months, should their peripherals hold up.

Justin Verlander, Tigers

6.75 ERA, 3.22 FIP

Verlander’s ERA looks like something out of an Alfred Hitchcock horror film (how appropriate, given Comerica’s tendency to go to the birds). However, the Old Dominion product actually pitched very well in April: again flashing mid-90’s gas (his fastball is up to 95.3 MPH in ’09, after coming in at 93.6 MPH in ’08), Verlander has fooled 34 batters in 28 innings (10.93 K/9) while shaving slightly over 1 walk per nine innings off his ledger (2.89 BB/9, down from 3.90 last season). Only a mind-bending .408 BABIP and 50.3% strand rate have kept Verlander from being recognized as improved. Don’t let the Maroth-like ERA fool you: Verlander is dealing, and he’s a great buy-low candidate.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

6.92 ERA, 3.64 FIP

After a ridiculously productive second half in 2008, Nolasco has spurred a lot of “what’s wrong with him?” talk in the first month of the season. While his control hasn’t been especially sharp (3.12 BB/9, after a pinpoint 1.78 BB/9 in 2008), it’s not as though Nolasco is getting shelled and struggling horrendously. His K rate has remained stable (7.62 per nine): it’s the .391 BABIP that’s killing him (you’ll note a trend on this list: strong peripherals sabotaged by very poor showings on balls put in play) as well as a 56.9% strand rate. Don’t discard Nolasco at a bargain-basement price: he’ll likely reward you in the coming months.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox

7.22 ERA, 4.05 FIP

Beckett has gotten shelled his last two trips to the mound against New York and Tampa Bay, and to be sure, he hasn’t been ace-quality so far. He’s struggling to locate (5.02 BB/9, after walking less than 1.8 per nine in 2007 and 2008), and has placed just 42.3% of his pitches in the strike zone (48.9% MLB average, 53.5% career average). So, to say there are no problems would be incorrect. But still, a .398 BABIP and a 58.6% strand rate have made Beckett look like a batting practice dummy as opposed to a very good hurler who’s experiencing some control issues. Don’t hit the panic button just yet.

Joe Blanton, Phillies

8.41 ERA, 6.08 FIP

This falls into the “damning with faint praise” category, no? Unlike the first three guys on this list, Blanton has been legitimately bad. Or has he? FIP is a great stat, but it falls victim to wacky HR performances. Blanton has posted decent strikeout and walk ratios (an uncharacteristic 8.85 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9), but he’s giving up taters at a pace that would make Brett Myers laugh: 2.66 HR/9, on the back of a 22.2 HR/FB%. For comparison, Blanton’s career HR/FB% is 8.5.

If we used Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) instead, Blanton comes in at 4.41. That’s actually better than his 2008 mark, and is the third-best figure of his career. Blanton has basically been the same mid-rotation Average Joe in 2009, but has given up homers like he’s throwing under-handed with a beach ball.

Dana Eveland, Athletics

5.95 ERA, 3.79 FIP

Eveland might actually be the reverse of Blanton: his FIP says he’s been better, but I’m not so sure. He’s both struck out and walked 5.49 batters per nine innings, and has yet to allow a homer in 19.2 innings. His BABIP is a loopy .400, but it’s hard to recommend a guy who lacks both the fine touch to paint the corners (career 4.57 BB/9) and ability to punch out hitters with great frequency (6.71 K/9). At least he’s kept the ball on the ground (59.7 GB%).

With a month’s worth of games in the books, let’s take a quick look at the starting pitchers who have significantly over performed or underperformed, based on their Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). By taking a gander at those core numbers (strikeouts, walks, homers), we can get a better idea of which hot starts are unlikely to last or which “struggling” starters might be in for a rebound. First up, those who have posted an ERA significantly better than their FIP would indicate. These are the guys who might slip going forward, if their peripherals don’t improve.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

2.13 ERA, 4.37 FIP

This is certainly change for Millwood, whose FIP outpaced his ERA from 2006-2008. The 34 year-old has hardly been bad (Millwood isn’t missing many bats with 5.21 K/9, but his walk rate is a nifty 1.89 per nine). It’s just that his .220 BABIP and a very high strand rate (86.7% of runners put on base have been left out in the cold) make his work look ace-like as opposed to just slightly above league-average.

Ian Snell, Pirates

3.72 ERA, 5.90 FIP

Snell is one of many Bucco hurlers outperforming his FIP thus far- Pittsburgh’s staff has a collective 3.38 ERA, but a much less impressive FIP of 4.75. Snell rode the opposite wagon in 2008, posting a middling 4.57 FIP but a ghastly 5.42 ERA. The righty has an unimpressive 1.11 K/BB ratio in 2009, the product of 6.21 K/9 and a Blassian 5.59 BB/9. Just 43.4% of his pitches have been in the strike zone (48.9% MLB average).

Chris Volstad, Marlins

2.67 ERA, 4.83 FIP

Toting a low-90’s sinker and a big curve, Volstad was never considered a power pitcher in the minors (his career K rate was 5.9 per nine innings.) So far in ’09, though? The 6-7 righty has punched out 8.01 per nine, while still generating grounders (53.2 GB%). His control hasn’t been very sharp (3.56 BB/9) and his BABIP is absurdly low (.182, lowest among all starters). Volstad surely won’t keep a sub-three ERA, but there are actually a number of positives here: in addition to the extra whiffs and continued grounders, Volstad has been rather unlucky in the HR department (1.48 HR/9 and a wacky-high 19.2 HR/FB%). If you view his work through Expected FIP (XFIP) instead (which normalizes HR/FB rates to root out outlier performances on flyballs), Volstad checks in at 4.09. He’s not an ace, but there’s a lot to like.

Braden Looper, Brewers

2.45 ERA, 4.54 FIP

Looper has basically been his league-average self in Bratwurst Town, though he’s both whiffed (6.55 K/9) and walked (4.5 BB/9) more than normal (career 5.25 K/9 and 2.87 BB/9). The former Cardinal, Marlin, Met, Cardinal again and now Brewer has lucked out in stranding runners (86.5% strand rate).

Edwin Jackson, Tigers

2.25 ERA, 4.24 FIP

Jackson has gotten a lot of play as a breakout performer in 2009, and to his credit he has shown some improvement in Mo Town. His previously oscillating control (his career BB/9 is 4.37) has been pretty crisp (2.25 BB/9 in ’09), and batters are offering at a higher percentage of the pitches that he throws out of the strike zone (28.5 Outside Swing%, well above his 21.3% career average and the 24.3% MLB average). He’s also avoided being beaten like a drum by left-handed batters, holding southpaws to a .497 OPS in 2009 (his career mark is .810).

So, Jackson performed like a pretty good mid-rotation starter in April. But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves here: his BABIP is .233, and he’s still missing bats at a clip slightly below the league average (Jackson has K’d 5.91 per nine this season).